204 Peach St · South Mills, NC 27976

$289,680

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,307 sqft · Townhouse

Built 2025 Est $303k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

JUNIPER

Key facts

• $100 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (3.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (3.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.0% in South Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#612 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Camden County Schools (rural): math 56% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #29 of 178 in NC (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grandy Primary (math 87% / reading 72%, grade A, #24 of 1,410 statewide, top 2%, 607 students, 32% FRL); Camden County High (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 464 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 105 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $869 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Camden County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $280,825 (3.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.73%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,224
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Peach St	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,307 (0%)	1mo	$289,680	$222	99
102 Tee Olive St	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,307 (0%)	1mo	$294,990	$226	99
206 Peach St	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,307 (0%)	2mo	$289,405	$221	98
202 Peach St	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,307 (0%)	2mo	$315,150	$241	98
208 Peach St	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,307 (0%)	2mo	$289,520	$222	98
220 Peach St	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,307 (0%)	3mo	$302,360	$231	98
218 Peach St	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,307 (0%)	3mo	$303,450	$232	98
226 Peach St	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,307 (0%)	3mo	$314,450	$241	98
228 Peach St	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,307 (0%)	4mo	$304,990	$233	97
222 Peach St	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,220 (-7%)	3mo	$308,260	$253	86
214 Peach St	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,307 (0%)	3mo	$293,910	$225	77
112 Tee Olive St	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,311 (+0%)	3mo	$330,990	$252	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-6,231
• Equity at exit: $78,489

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $36,694
• Equity at exit: $89,969

Cash invested: $81,110 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27976

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,808 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,345/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,661

Max offer price $289,680

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $317	-5% $217	+0% $117	+5% $17	+10% $-84
Rent	-10% $-105	-5% $6	+0% $117	+5% $228	+10% $338
Rate	-1.0pp $262	-0.5pp $190	base $117	+0.5pp $42	+1.0pp $-35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,420
• Closing costs: $8,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-11-06
   listed $289,680
2. 2025-11-06
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,227
• − Property taxes: −$4,345
• − Insurance: −$1,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,696
• − Management: −$2,696
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,427
• Taxable loss: −$3,340
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$802
• After-tax cash flow: $2,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Camden County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700600
• Math proficiency: 56% ▲ 8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $59,622
• Composite: 51.97/100
• National rank: #1643
• State rank: #29 of 178 in NC

Livability — South Mills

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #612
• US rank: #22229

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Mills, NC
• Population (ZIP): 4,237

Population outlook (Camden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,980 people
• By 2030: 11,246 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 11,562 · +5.3%
• By 2050: 11,572 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 11,450 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 10,648 · -3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Portuguese 3% Romanian 3%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Camden

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.8) · D 24.2% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -32.0pp · 2024: -50.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.8 2020: R+46.6 2016: R+45.8 2012: R+34.0 2008: R+32.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.39%
• Current HPI: 174.2102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-06 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $289,680 REINMLS