1813 Robinson Dr · Haines City, FL 33844

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,418 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 491 Days on market

Built 1930 5,670 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors! This 1930 home offers an excellent opportunity for renovation or rental income. With over 1,400 square feet of living space, this property features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and plenty of potential. The classic block home with original character provide a solid foundation for restoration or updates. Located in a revitalized area, this property is perfect for investors looking to capitalize on the neighborhood’s growth. Whether you're planning to flip or hold as a rental, this home has the layout and potential for a great return on investment. Don’t miss this opportunity—schedule a showing today! Seller will create a package deal and included lots 1 &

Key facts

• 5,670 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 491 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Zoning: R-2; Lot size about 0.13 acres (approximately 527 m²); Living area about 1,418 square feet
• Financial info: No lease restrictions reported
• HOA & community: No HOA/association reported

Exterior

• Parking: Directions provided for access (see listing for details)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces southwest
• Construction: Block construction; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No notable interior features reported
• Laundry & utility: Laundry features: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $634 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 491 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 491 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.11%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $12,241
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $47,536
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,120 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,307/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $634

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,318

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $719	-5% $676	+0% $634	+5% $591	+10% $549
Rent	-10% $466	-5% $550	+0% $634	+5% $718	+10% $801
Rate	-1.0pp $709	-0.5pp $672	base $634	+0.5pp $595	+1.0pp $555

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1339 Madison Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,990	$1.37	22d	1	0.66mi
1336 Madison Cir Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1733	$2,800	$1.62	24d	1	0.68mi
1916 Verano Dr Unit 1916B Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	24d	1	0.73mi
1916 Verano Dr Unit 1916C Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1727	$1,900	$1.10	24d	1	0.73mi
375 Boardwalk Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,350	$1.36	15d	1	0.74mi
1123 Patriot Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,150	$1.19	15d	1	0.75mi
128 Arlington Square Ct Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1465	$2,300	$1.57	15d	1	0.81mi
1931 Trinity Cir Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,500	$0.91	24d	1	0.87mi
1313 Tank Trl Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,095	$1.44	24d	1	0.88mi
963 E Main St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1545	$1,700	$1.10	15d	1	0.92mi
768 Richmond Estate Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,995	$1.12	24d	1	0.94mi
570 Feltrim Manor Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,400	$1.31	24d	1	1.07mi
662 Fairview Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,995	$1.12	4d	1	1.16mi
401 W Florida Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,649	$1.18	15d	2	1.20mi
660 Tanaro Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1848	$2,000	$1.08	24d	1	1.22mi
3139 Cedar Crossing Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1506	$1,795	$1.19	4d	1	1.23mi
148 Roseville Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1631	$1,799	$1.10	15d	1	1.23mi
755 Staffora St Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$1,799	$1.16	24d	1	1.24mi
751 Staffora St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1848	$2,300	$1.24	24d	1	1.25mi
815 Ofanto Way Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,500	$1.60	4d	1	1.30mi
504 N 7th St Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,870	$1.43	4d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 491 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 490 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 489 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 488 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 486 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 483 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 482 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 481 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 480 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 477 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 475 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 474 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 473 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $150,000
15. 2026-04-30
    price $159,000
16. 2026-04-10
    price $165,000
17. 2026-02-05
    status Active
18. 2026-01-03
    status Pending
19. 2025-12-31
    historical
20. 2025-07-30
    price $169,000
21. 2025-03-06
    price $179,000
22. 2025-02-03
    status Active
23. 2025-01-30
    status Pending
24. 2025-01-24
    price $189,000
25. 2025-01-03
    listed $199,000 Active
26. 2024-07-10
    soldstatus $150,000
27. 2022-06-08
    soldstatus $85,000
28. 2005-02-25
    soldstatus $30,000
29. 1999-09-09
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,307 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,307 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,307
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,036
• − Management: −$2,036
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $5,551
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,332
• After-tax cash flow: $6,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-03 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-24 Price Changed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-03 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1999-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,307 · -18.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.