407 5th St N N · Millville, NJ 08332

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,094 sqft · Townhouse public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1926 1,546 sqft lot Est $135k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ROOMY HALF DOUBLE, VERY LARGE BACK YARD. BEING SOLD STRICTLY AS IS, NO CERTIFICATIONS!

Key facts

• Built 1926
• Listed 48 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Finished above-grade area reported as 1,094 (assessor)
• Financial info: Land and improvement assessed separately (assessed values recorded); Tax/assessment details available

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Semi-detached structure; Pitched shingle roof; Frame construction; Entry level information not specified; Property condition listed as average; Ownership is fee simple
• Construction: Frame construction materials; Other type foundation; Other structures above and below grade
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Lot dimensions approximately 16 x 165

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Wall unit cooling (electric); Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: No basement; Living area recorded from assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $470 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 4.2% in Millville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#431 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Millville School District (suburban): math 6% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #447 of 472 in NJ (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Silver Run Elementary School (math 0% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,235 of 1,303 statewide, top 96%, 427 students, 91% FRL); Lakeside Middle School (math 5% / reading 31%, grade F, #405 of 431 statewide, top 95%, 987 students, 70% FRL); Millville Senior High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #327 of 399 statewide, top 82%, 1,640 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $125k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.10%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,562
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
515 N 5th St	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+0%)	8mo	$160,000	$145	88
215 D St	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-7%)	0mo	$77,500	$76	74
213 D St	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-7%)	0mo	$77,500	$76	74
610 E Pine St	0.17mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (+10%)	6mo	$197,500	$165	64
315 S 3rd St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,076 (-2%)	11mo	$125,000	$116	62
712 N 5th St	0.31mi	3/1.0	984 (-10%)	13mo	$185,000	$188	58
313 S 3rd St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-7%)	8mo	$125,000	$123	57
123 W Foundry St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,128 (+3%)	10mo	$115,000	$102	53
408 Powell St W	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,044 (-5%)	7mo	$150,000	$144	52
416 Green St W	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,001 (-8%)	12mo	$125,000	$125	44
907 Buck St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-9%)	14mo	$107,000	$107	41
414 W Powell St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-12%)	5mo	$115,000	$120	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $7,876
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $38,243
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08332

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,719 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,174/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,125

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $540	-5% $505	+0% $470	+5% $434	+10% $399
Rent	-10% $334	-5% $402	+0% $470	+5% $537	+10% $605
Rate	-1.0pp $532	-0.5pp $501	base $470	+0.5pp $437	+1.0pp $404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 W Main St Unit B Millville, NJ	3.0	1.0	1384	$1,500	$1.08	45d	1	0.66mi
301 N Wade Blvd Millville, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	1005	$1,715	$1.71	15d	10	0.82mi
313 W Main St Millville, NJ	3.0	1.5	1265	$1,650	$1.30	45d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $125,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $145,000 Active 358-char remark
18. 2005-09-28
    soldstatus $53,000
19. 2005-09-26
    soldstatus $53,000 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    ROOMY HALF DOUBLE, VERY LARGE BACK YARD. BEING SOLD STRICTLY AS IS, NO CERTIFICATIONS!

20. 2005-08-05
    historical 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    ROOMY HALF DOUBLE, VERY LARGE BACK YARD. BEING SOLD STRICTLY AS IS, NO CERTIFICATIONS!

21. 2005-07-22
    listed $55,000 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    ROOMY HALF DOUBLE, VERY LARGE BACK YARD. BEING SOLD STRICTLY AS IS, NO CERTIFICATIONS!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,174 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,643 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: +$469/yr (+$39/mo · 21.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,174
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,651
• − Management: −$1,651
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,894
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$935
• After-tax cash flow: $4,700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millville School District
• NCES district ID: 3410320
• Math proficiency: 6% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,851
• Composite: 15.23/100
• National rank: #9338
• State rank: #447 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Millville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #15561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Millville, NJ
• County: Cumberland County · 80,266 people
• City population: 35,228
• Metro: Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 35,228
• Household income: $67,496
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1761.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,743 people
• By 2030: 150,373 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 146,881 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 142,653 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 129,468 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 107,456 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 15% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: -3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.8 2020: D+6.0 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+23.1 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.45%
• Current HPI: 274.8011
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+127.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-26 Sold (MLS) $53,000 SJSRMLS
• 2005-08-05 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2005-07-22 Listed $55,000 SJSRMLS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,174 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.