802 W 9th St · Johnston City, IL 62951

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,106 sqft · Other · 24 Days on market

Built 1921

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investors take a look!! This could be a rental or a great flip opportunity! 2 bedroom, 1 bath bungalow with a partially fenced yard. There is a large enclosed front porch and also an enclosed back porch, and large bedrooms.

Key facts

• Enclosed back porch
• Built 1921
• Listed 23 days

Tags

• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• LARGE ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• ENCLOSED BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($962 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#670 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Johnston City CUSD 1 (town): math 11% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #556 of 620 in IL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $85k implies a 962% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.63%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-1,611
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $14,268
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62951

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $962 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,059/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $721

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-05-26
    listed $85,000 Active
19. 2025-12-20
    historical
20. 2025-12-19
    historical
21. 2025-10-31
    price
22. 2025-10-19
    listed Active
23. 2024-04-04
    historical
24. 2024-04-04
    historical
25. 2024-03-20
    price
26. 2024-03-13
    price
27. 2024-03-07
    listed Active
28. 2021-08-06
    historical
29. 2020-10-02
    soldstatus $8,000
30. 2020-09-05
    listed $8,000
31. 2014-07-25
    historical
32. 2000-09-15
    soldstatus $22,000
33. 2000-07-19
    listed $22,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,059 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,494 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$435/yr (+$36/mo · 41.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,059
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$924
• − Management: −$924
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $983
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$236
• After-tax cash flow: $2,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston City CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1720550
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,813
• Composite: 10.81/100
• National rank: #9765
• State rank: #556 of 620 in IL

Livability — Johnston City

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #670
• US rank: #13707

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnston City, IL
• City population: 5,381
• Population (ZIP): 5,381

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,553 people
• By 2030: 70,090 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 70,345 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 69,394 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 63,590 · -8.6%
• By 2100: 51,154 · -26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 3% English 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+25.0 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.65%
• Current HPI: 111.1728
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+277.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $85,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-12-20 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-19 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-04 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-04 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-20 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-13 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-07 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-02 Sold (MLS) $8,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-05 Listed $8,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-25 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-09-15 Sold (MLS) $22,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-07-19 Listed $22,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,059 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.