2555 State Route 104 · Ontario, NY 14519

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition 18 ac lot $125/sqft · 37% below area Est $239k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable opportunity! This Colonial is situated on almost 3 acres with lots of woods. A great opportunity to add an out building! The house is solid but will need fixing up / remodeling. There is room to add a garage too. Located on a private drive so it is not right on Rt. 104. A very cool setting. This is a super opportunity to build equity with home ownership!

Key facts

• Almost 3 acres
• Cool setting
• Private drive

Tags

• ALMOST 3 ACRES
• PRIVATE DRIVE
• COOL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $485 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.2% in Ontario — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living B+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Wayne Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #194 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.84%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,031
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -37.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $6,585
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $45,591
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14519

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,926 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    status Active 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    Affordable opportunity! This Colonial is situated on almost 3 acres with lots of woods. A great opportunity to add an out building! The house is solid but will need fixing up / remodeling. There is room to add a garage too. Located on a private drive so it is not right on Rt. 104. A very cool setting. This is a super opportunity to build equity with home ownership!

16. 2026-04-23
    status Pending 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    Affordable opportunity! This Colonial is situated on almost 3 acres with lots of woods. A great opportunity to add an out building! The house is solid but will need fixing up / remodeling. There is room to add a garage too. Located on a private drive so it is not right on Rt. 104. A very cool setting. This is a super opportunity to build equity with home ownership!

17. 2026-04-07
    listed $150,000 Active 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    Affordable opportunity! This Colonial is situated on almost 3 acres with lots of woods. A great opportunity to add an out building! The house is solid but will need fixing up / remodeling. There is room to add a garage too. Located on a private drive so it is not right on Rt. 104. A very cool setting. This is a super opportunity to build equity with home ownership!

18. 2026-02-25
    historical
19. 2025-12-30
    listed $150,000 Active
20. 2025-12-29
    historical
21. 2025-10-29
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,106
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,849
• − Management: −$1,849
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $3,643
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$874
• After-tax cash flow: $4,940/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property is in fair condition with moderate repairs needed, primarily focusing on exterior siding and landscaping. Improvements in these areas would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and possibly peeling
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown with fallen leaves

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both Exterior siding repair — Restores the home's exterior and improves its appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered and possibly peeling	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping · Overgrown with fallen leaves	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$3,500–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Exterior siding repair — Restores the home's exterior and improves its appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630330
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,193
• Composite: 54.18/100
• National rank: #1378
• State rank: #194 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ontario

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6629

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,487

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.53%
• Current HPI: 242.3518
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $150,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-02-25 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-12-30 Listed $150,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-12-29 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $150,000 UNYREIS