2007 Welby Ln · Lehigh Acres, FL 33972

$277,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,258 sqft · Land · 200 Days on market

Built 2025 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW CONSTRUCTION! You Will Be Amazed By The Quality Of This Brand New 3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom Home With Western Exposure For Those Amazing Florida Sunsets All On An 1/4 Acre Lot In The Beautiful Greenbriar Neighborhood Of Lehigh Acres, FL. This Home Has 1258 SF Under Air And It Is COMPLETELY Finished With Its CO Issued! You Can Move Into It Today Or Use It As A Cash Flowing Rental Unit (High Demand). The Gourmet Kitchen Comes With Quartz Countertops, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, Real Wood Shaker SOFT TOUCH Cabinet Doors & Drawers, Glass Tile Backsplash, Floor To Ceiling Pantry, And A Large Breakfast Bar. Other Upgrades Include; FREE BRAND NEW WASHER AND DRYER WITH PURCHASE OF THIS P

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Gourmet kitchen
• Paver driveway

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• HURRICANE IMPACT WINDOWS
• PAVER DRIVEWAY
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Non-gated community; Street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 covered garage space; Driveway; Paved parking; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry at level 1; Faces east; New construction
• Construction: New construction; Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built with foundation suitable for the region
• Exterior features: Security/high impact doors; Room for pool; Open porch/lanai; Porch; Smoke detector(s); West exposure; Oversized lot; Paved public road with public maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Icemaker; Refrigerator with ice maker; Water purifier; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom; Additional bedrooms; Bedrooms located on the main level
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub/shower combination
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Impact glass windows; Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Living/Dining room; Custom mirrors; Main level primary bedroom; Pantry; Sitting area in primary; Tub with shower; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet(s); Split bedroom floorplan; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry / utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-420 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (21.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (31.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Park Academy For The Arts (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 2,133 students, 36% FRL); Oak Hammock Middle School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 1,563 students, 56% FRL); Lehigh Senior High School (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 2,476 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 1620 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $278k implies a 456% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,911 (31.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.48%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-67,211
• Equity at exit: $41,436

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-73,264
• Equity at exit: $24,028

Cash invested: $77,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33972

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 1620
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,899 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,457
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$347 /mo · $4,168/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,431

Max offer price $217,095

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-228	-5% $-324	+0% $-420	+5% $-516	+10% $-612
Rent	-10% $-570	-5% $-495	+0% $-420	+5% $-345	+10% $-270
Rate	-1.0pp $-280	-0.5pp $-350	base $-420	+0.5pp $-492	+1.0pp $-565

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,475
• Closing costs: $8,337
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
152 Ridgemont Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,830	$1.23	25d	1	0.04mi
2006 Rosa Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,200	$1.46	25d	1	0.12mi
2004 Rosa Ct Unit 2004 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,950	$1.50	25d	1	0.13mi
1924 Marlay Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,700	$1.30	25d	1	0.25mi
134 Viewpoint Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1042	$1,650	$1.58	5d	1	0.27mi
1917 Lorna Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1042	$1,675	$1.61	25d	1	0.28mi
2015 Olsen Ln Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1328	$1,750	$1.32	25d	1	0.33mi
2011 Olsen Ln Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1229	$2,400	$1.95	5d	1	0.34mi
2236 Wolverton Ct Alva, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	23d	1	0.37mi
2238 Wolverton Ct Unit 1 Alva, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	3d	1	0.37mi
2238 Wolverton Ct Unit 1 Alva, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	3d	1	0.37mi
225 Rogers St Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,400	$1.23	12d	1	0.56mi
1920 Latona St Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$1,325	$1.17	25d	1	0.74mi
317 Urbana St Unit Apartment Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	5d	1	0.77mi
359 Greenbriar Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$1,290	$1.14	17d	1	0.97mi
363 Greenbriar Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1133	$1,425	$1.26	23d	1	0.99mi
353 Reeves St Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$1,299	$1.15	25d	1	1.08mi
2701 E 18th St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1577	$2,000	$1.27	25d	1	1.16mi
397 Greenbriar Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$1,295	$1.14	25d	1	1.17mi
414 Willowbrook Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,246	$1.28	5d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $277,900 Pending 200 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $277,900 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $277,900 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $277,900 Active 190 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $277,900 Active 189 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $277,900 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-03-27
   price $277,900
8. 2026-02-13
   price $279,900
9. 2026-01-30
   price $284,900
10. 2025-12-16
    price $289,900
11. 2025-11-24
    listed $284,900 Active
12. 2021-12-27
    soldstatus $50,000
13. 2019-05-04
    historical
14. 2018-07-21
    listed $11,900
15. 2013-02-12
    soldstatus $475,000
16. 2008-03-06
    soldstatus $700,000
17. 2005-10-05
    soldstatus $3,599,500
18. 2005-02-07
    soldstatus $1,950,000
19. 1998-08-31
    soldstatus $1,490,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,567
• − Property taxes: −$4,168
• − Insurance: −$1,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,823
• − Management: −$1,823
• − Depreciation: −$8,084
• Taxable loss: −$10,066
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,416
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lehigh Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lehigh Acres, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 130,638
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,285
• Household income: $73,819
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 190.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 21% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 18%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 6% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.97%
• Current HPI: 343.484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.33%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-81.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $277,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $279,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $284,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $289,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listed $284,900 FORTMLS
• 2021-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-21 Listed $11,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $475,000 Public Records
• 2008-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $700,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $3,599,500 Public Records
• 2005-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $1,950,000 Public Records
• 1998-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $1,490,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $386 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.