28177 Julia Ave · Big Pine Key, FL 33042

$240,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1971 6,284 sqft lot Est $329k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity to purchase for land value in Little Torch Key. Large lot with existing mobile home on site that is not habitable. Property is being marketed as LAND ONLY. Lot is zoned IS (Improved Subdivision District), which typically allows for single-family residential construction subject to Monroe County Land Development Code and applicable ROGO requirements. Conveniently located less than 5 minutes from a public boat ramp. Buyer to verify zoning, building rights, and development potential with Monroe County. Do not enter structure unless authorized by listing agent. Sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Public boat ramp
• 6,284 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL
• PUBLIC BOAT RAMP

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Street lights

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Faces west; Resale
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; City street frontage; Less than quarter-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: First floor entry; Bedroom on main level; Vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $541 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $226k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 0.2% in Big Pine Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Monroe (town): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 73 in FL (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 332 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (42 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.27%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $329,280
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27997 Coral Shores Rd	0.54mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	4mo	$435,000	$647	72
27977 Coral Shores Rd	0.54mi	2/1.0	684 (+2%)	4mo	$320,000	$468	68
27983 Snapper Ln	0.68mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	7mo	$300,000	$446	62
27883 Coral Shores Rd	0.57mi	2/1.5	720 (+7%)	16mo	$540,000	$750	46
27954 Tarpon Ter	0.62mi	2/1.5	735 (+9%)	16mo	$360,500	$490	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $165,443
• Equity at exit: $216,211

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.86×
• Total profit: $460,713
• Equity at exit: $466,267

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33042

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,293 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,304/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$691
• Net cashflow: $541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,608

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $677	-5% $609	+0% $541	+5% $473	+10% $405
Rent	-10% $281	-5% $411	+0% $541	+5% $671	+10% $801
Rate	-1.0pp $662	-0.5pp $602	base $541	+0.5pp $478	+1.0pp $415

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $240,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $240,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $240,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $240,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 61 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $240,000 Active 60 DOM
19. 2026-05-03
    historical
20. 2026-03-31
    listed $240,000 Active
21. 2026-03-23
    listed $240,000 Active 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    Opportunity to purchase for land value in Little Torch Key. Large lot with existing mobile home on site that is not habitable. Property is being marketed as LAND ONLY. Lot is zoned IS (Improved Subdivision District), which typically allows for single-family residential construction subject to Monroe County Land Development Code and applicable ROGO requirements. Conveniently located less than 5 minutes from a public boat ramp. Buyer to verify zoning, building rights, and development potential with Monroe County. Do not enter structure unless authorized by listing agent. Sold AS-IS.

22. 2026-01-25
    listed $240,000 Active
23. 2025-05-16
    historical
24. 2025-04-04
    listed $320,000 Active
25. 2025-03-25
    historical
26. 2024-10-02
    listed $349,000 Active
27. 2024-05-02
    soldstatus $321,000
28. 2024-05-01
    soldstatus $321,000 Closed
29. 2024-04-13
    historical Contingent (Show)
30. 2024-04-05
    price $321,000
31. 2024-03-09
    listed $326,000 Active
32. 2023-07-31
    historical
33. 2023-06-28
    soldstatus $281,500
34. 2023-06-23
    soldstatus $281,500 Closed
35. 2023-06-05
    status Pending
36. 2023-05-28
    price $290,000
37. 2023-05-28
    status Active
38. 2023-05-21
    historical
39. 2023-05-10
    price $324,900
40. 2023-02-28
    price $329,900
41. 2023-02-03
    listed $334,900 Active
42. 2023-02-03
    listed $334,900 Active
43. 2017-02-24
    soldstatus $85,000
44. 1975-02-01
    soldstatus $7,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,304 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,304 · $275/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,304
• − Insurance: −$6,319
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,161
• − Management: −$3,161
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable income: $3,141
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$754
• After-tax cash flow: $5,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe
• NCES district ID: 1201320
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,955
• Composite: 45.51/100
• National rank: #2608
• State rank: #23 of 73 in FL

Livability — Big Pine Key

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #11450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 66,185 people
• Metro: Key West, FL
• Population (ZIP): 6,441
• Household income: $103,041
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 146.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,706 people
• By 2030: 96,308 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 106,565 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 116,500 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 141,423 · +55.9%
• By 2100: 151,947 · +67.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: R (+18.3) · D 40.5% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: -18.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.3 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.11%
• Current HPI: 491.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Key West, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3100.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $240,000 MARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $240,000 FLKMLS
• 2026-01-25 Listed $240,000 FLKMLS
• 2025-05-16 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $320,000 MARMLS
• 2025-03-25 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2024-10-02 Listed $349,000 MARMLS
• 2024-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $321,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-01 Sold (MLS) $321,000 FLKMLS
• 2024-04-13 Contingent — FLKMLS
• 2024-04-05 Price Changed $321,000 FLKMLS
• 2024-03-09 Listed $326,000 FLKMLS
• 2023-07-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $281,500 Public Records
• 2023-06-23 Sold (MLS) $281,500 FLKMLS
• 2023-06-05 Pending — FLKMLS
• 2023-05-28 Price Changed $290,000 FLKMLS
• 2023-05-28 Relisted — FLKMLS
• 2023-05-21 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2023-05-10 Price Changed $324,900 FLKMLS
• 2023-02-28 Price Changed $329,900 FLKMLS
• 2023-02-03 Listed $334,900 FLKMLS
• 2023-02-03 Listed $334,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1975-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,304 · +14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.