7805 Deer Park Ave · Lakewood Park, FL 34951

$274,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1975 Est $338k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Perfect for a first-time home buyer & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; move-in ready! Well-maintained home in established Lakewood Park, occupied by the original owner the entire time. This property offers strong fundamentals, documented major system updates, and an excellent opportunity to personalize cosmetic finishes over time while enjoying a peaceful neighborhood with nice neighbors and convenient access to shopping, dining, beaches, recreation park, school and other everyday conveniences. Recent updates and features include: & acirc; & euro; & cent; 4-point inspection and wind mitigation report completed 3/1/26 (available upon request) & acirc; & euro; &

Key facts

• Well maintained home
• Move in ready
• Built 1975

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• WELL MAINTAINED HOME
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL PANEL
• PRIVATE WELL AND SEPTIC SYSTEM
• RECENTLY REPLACED WELL PUMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.7% in Lakewood Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#719 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,493/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 140% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,348 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.29%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $337,824
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8204 Hibiscus Rd	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,673 (+2%)	8mo	$340,990	$204	69
7605 Pacific Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,435 (-12%)	7mo	$305,000	$213	67
6901 Deer Park Ave	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,673 (+2%)	5mo	$345,000	$206	59
7004 Bayard Rd #10	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,673 (+2%)	4mo	$334,990	$200	56
7004 Bayard Rd	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,673 (+2%)	4mo	$334,990	$200	56
7205 Salerno Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,673 (+2%)	5mo	$347,990	$208	52
5600 Lugo St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,780 (+9%)	6mo	$374,612	$210	52
5732 Waterstone Blvd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,780 (+9%)	5mo	$374,652	$210	50
5309 Vespera St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+12%)	3mo	$365,000	$201	42
8823 Waterstone Blvd	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+12%)	2mo	$397,652	$218	41
5624 Lugo St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+12%)	8mo	$376,652	$207	40
5740 Waterstone Blvd	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+12%)	8mo	$373,652	$205	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-23,050
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $7,253
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34951

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,493 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $890/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,064

Max offer price $274,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7704 Pacific Ave Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1719	$2,500	$1.45	14d	1	0.07mi
7403 Winter Garden Pkwy Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,200	$1.60	21d	1	0.30mi
7500 Pensacola Rd Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$2,150	$1.91	14d	1	0.65mi
6906 Ocala Ave Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,955	$1.66	14d	1	0.65mi
8674 Pavia St Fort Pierce, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,600	$1.43	21d	1	0.66mi
5510 Shannon Dr Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,350	$1.47	14d	1	0.82mi
5234 Oakland Lake Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,300	$1.58	14d	1	0.83mi
5226 Armina Pl Fort Pierce, FL	4.0	2.0	2003	$2,950	$1.47	21d	1	0.85mi
7503 Paso Robles Blvd Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,000	$1.59	23d	1	0.90mi
5154 Armina Pl Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1477	$2,350	$1.59	14d	1	0.97mi
5082 Armina Pl Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1464	$3,000	$2.05	23d	1	1.05mi
6602 Palomar Pkwy Unit A Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	23d	1	1.19mi
5010 Killarney Ave Unit A Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.0	1720	$1,500	$0.87	23d	1	1.26mi
5642 Sunberry Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,950	$1.42	23d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $274,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $274,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $274,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $274,900 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $274,900 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $274,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $890 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,282 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,391/yr (+$116/mo · 156.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$890
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,394
• − Management: −$2,394
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$526
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$126
• After-tax cash flow: $4,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Park

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #15407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Park, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,148
• Household income: $63,122
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 140.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.06%
• Current HPI: 343.1376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $274,900 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $890 · +13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.