511 E Cold Spring Ln · Baltimore, MD 21212

$89,200

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,114 sqft · Townhouse public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1941 1,740 sqft lot $80/sqft · 55% below area ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 1941, this attached townhome offers approximately 1114 finished square feet, three bedrooms and two full baths, unfinished basement and covered front porch. This home sits on an approximate 1740 sqft lot.

Key facts

• Built 1941
• Listed 70 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $721 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $617 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,848 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.62%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,296
• List price: $89,200
• Delta: -55.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
739 Springfield Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,160 (+4%)	2mo	$125,000	$108	69
800 Radnor Ave	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,224 (+10%)	2mo	$99,900	$82	68
812 Mccabe Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-3%)	1mo	$150,000	$139	66
355 Homeland Southway Unit 2B	0.48mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,043 (-6%)	0mo	$205,000	$197	60
365 Homeland Southway Unit 2B	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,061 (-5%)	4mo	$240,000	$226	57
380 Homeland Southway Unit 3A	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,066 (-4%)	3mo	$225,000	$211	57
827 Belgian Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+13%)	2mo	$130,000	$103	55
3952 Wilsby Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+8%)	3mo	$82,572	$69	52
929 E 41st St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,260 (+13%)	3mo	$149,500	$119	46
1312 E Cold Spring Ln	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,216 (+9%)	1mo	$147,000	$121	45
934 Argonne Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,260 (+13%)	3mo	$130,000	$103	44
324 Woodbourne Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+15%)	4mo	$286,425	$224	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $34,460
• Equity at exit: $13,300

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.08×
• Total profit: $101,898
• Equity at exit: $7,712

Cash invested: $24,976 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21212

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,754 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$468
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,918/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $721

Break-even live

Break-even rent $841

Max offer price $89,200

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,300
• Closing costs: $2,676
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
531 Willow Ave Unit Na Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	20d	1	0.10mi
4407 Old York Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1356	$1,574	$1.16	20d	1	0.17mi
4407 Old York Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1356	$1,574	$1.16	43d	1	0.17mi
835 E Cold Spring Ln Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	997	$1,400	$1.40	24d	1	0.27mi
543 Chateau Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,900	$1.65	4d	1	0.32mi
416 Winston Ave Unit 426-08 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	790	$1,050	$1.33	24d	1	0.32mi
416 Winston Ave Unit 426-01 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	890	$1,250	$1.40	43d	1	0.32mi
5001 Midwood Ave Apt 2A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	750	$1,265	$1.69	43d	1	0.37mi
720 Springfield Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1160	$2,000	$1.72	43d	1	0.37mi
815 Gilrubin Ct Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,695	$1.88	43d	1	0.42mi
812 Nat Ct Apt 12 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	43d	1	0.45mi
711 1/2 McCabe Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1204	$2,350	$1.95	4d	1	0.45mi
5200 Ready Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1116	$1,950	$1.75	3d	1	0.49mi
5307 York Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	43d	1	0.57mi
956 Argonne Dr Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	662	$1,295	$1.95	4d	6	0.59mi
1260 Rossiter Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	710	$1,250	$1.76	1d	37	0.63mi
1224 Winston Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,100	$1.68	17d	1	0.65mi
1275 Kitmore Rd Unit 1245K-T Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	935	$1,895	$2.03	4d	1	0.71mi
1275 Kitmore Rd Unit 1263K-T Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	811	$1,485	$1.83	4d	1	0.71mi
1275 Kitmore Rd Unit 1215B-T Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	811	$1,435	$1.77	4d	1	0.71mi
1275 Kitmore Rd Unit 1260K-T Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	811	$1,410	$1.74	4d	1	0.71mi
1275 Kitmore Rd Unit 1262B-A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	923	$1,320	$1.43	2d	1	0.71mi
1275 Kitmore Rd Unit 1248B-A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	812	$1,360	$1.67	4d	1	0.71mi
1275 Kitmore Rd Unit 1221B-T Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	811	$1,560	$1.92	24d	1	0.71mi
1275 Kitmore Rd Unit 1267K-T Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	827	$1,585	$1.92	43d	1	0.71mi
1275 Kitmore Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	827	$1,525	$1.84	43d	1	0.71mi
1275 Kitmore Rd Unit 1276B-A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	812	$1,360	$1.67	43d	1	0.71mi
1275 Kitmore Rd Unit 1259K-T Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	811	$1,535	$1.89	4d	1	0.71mi
1221 Glenwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,595	$1.87	43d	1	0.75mi
3721 Ellerslie Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	894	$1,603	$1.79	1d	1	0.79mi
612 Chestnut Hill Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,999	$2.22	43d	1	0.82mi
1006 Cameron Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1032	$950	$0.92	43d	1	0.87mi
108 W 39th St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	1350	$2,189	$1.62	3d	11	0.93mi
3811 Canterbury Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,495	$2.56	12d	5	0.94mi
5618 Midwood Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	24d	1	0.94mi
818 Bradhurst Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1216	$1,350	$1.11	3d	1	0.94mi
818 Bradhurst Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1216	$1,250	$1.03	43d	1	0.94mi
5622 Midwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,300	$1.58	43d	1	0.95mi
5626 Midwood Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1452	$1,100	$0.76	24d	1	0.95mi
1090 Cameron Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	832	$1,675	$2.01	3d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,200 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,200 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,200 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,200 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $89,200 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $93,400 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $93,400 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $93,400 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $93,400 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $93,400 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $93,400 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $93,400 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $93,400 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    price $97,600 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    Built in 1941, this attached townhome offers approximately 1114 finished square feet, three bedrooms and two full baths, unfinished basement and covered front porch. This home sits on an approximate 1740 sqft lot.

15. 2026-04-24
    price $105,000 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    Built in 1941, this attached townhome offers approximately 1114 finished square feet, three bedrooms and two full baths, unfinished basement and covered front porch. This home sits on an approximate 1740 sqft lot.

16. 2026-04-09
    listed $111,300 Active 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    Built in 1941, this attached townhome offers approximately 1114 finished square feet, three bedrooms and two full baths, unfinished basement and covered front porch. This home sits on an approximate 1740 sqft lot.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,918 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,918 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,997
• − Property taxes: −$1,918
• − Insurance: −$446
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,684
• − Management: −$1,684
• − Depreciation: −$2,595
• Taxable income: $7,722
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,853
• After-tax cash flow: $6,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 33,974
• Household income: $96,685
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 769.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 35% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -392.44%
• Current HPI: 267.4569
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-12.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $97,600 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $105,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $111,300 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,918 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.