16605 Hudson Prairie Way · New Fairview, TX 76247

$315,469

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,812 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,830 sqft lot $174/sqft · 6% below area Est $335k · 6% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

D.R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your new home builder in Lonestar at Liberty Trails, a fabulous unique master planned community in Justin and Northwest ISD! The single-story Carson Floorplan, Elevation X, with an estimated Spring completion, offers 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, delivering a spacious and functional layout designed for everyday living. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen, creating an inviting central gathering space. The kitchen features quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware, stainless steel appliances, a electric range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantry for added storage and convenience. The private primary suite is thoughtfully positioned and includes an en-suite bath with a dual quartz vanity, 5-foot oversized shower, and walk-in closet. Four secondary bedrooms are well-sized and share a full bathroom with a quartz vanity top, offering flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Luxury vinyl plank flooring extends through the main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. Additional features include energy-efficient construction, America’s Smart Home Technology, and a tank water heater. Future Community Amenities to include: Club House, Dog Park, Fishing Pond, Pickleball, Playground, Pool, Splash Pad, Walking-Nature Trails and Sand Volleyball. Situated conveniently near Highway 114 and Highway 287, Lonestar at Liberty Trails provides convenient access to key roads, making it ideal for commuting and exploring the surrounding areas.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Quartz countertops
• En-suite bath

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• EN-SUITE BATH
• OVERSIZED SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.5% in New Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#901 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W R Hatfield El (math 48% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 613 students, 29% FRL); Gene Pike Middle (math 47% / reading 46%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,150 students, 29% FRL); Northwest H S (math 55% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 2,264 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 1516 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $261,121 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.16%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $334,630
• List price: $315,469
• Delta: -5.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16624 Port Arthur Pl	0.15mi	5/2.0	1,812 (0%)	1mo	$303,990	$168	92
16572 Hudson Prairie Way	0.05mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,799 (-1%)	1mo	$339,600	$189	91
16641 Laguna Vista St	0.09mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-2%)	1mo	$336,630	$189	87
16612 Laguna Vista St	0.15mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,799 (-1%)	1mo	$343,610	$191	86
16608 Laguna Vista St	0.17mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,827 (+1%)	0mo	$332,630	$182	86
16581 Port Arthur Pl	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-2%)	1mo	$344,550	$194	85
16516 Laguna St	0.26mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (+1%)	0mo	$331,990	$181	81
16573 Hudson Prairie Way	0.03mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,038 (+12%)	0mo	$346,990	$170	72
16636 Port Arthur Pl	0.16mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (-9%)	1mo	$295,990	$180	72
16645 Geskey Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,818 (+0%)	1mo	$315,000	$173	66
16449 Hudson Prairie Way	0.27mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,025 (+12%)	0mo	$336,990	$166	62
16420 White Fish Ln	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,877 (+4%)	0mo	$300,000	$160	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-68,851
• Equity at exit: $47,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-102,326
• Equity at exit: $27,276

Cash invested: $88,331 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76247

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 1516
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,611 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,654
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,732/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $-159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,813

Max offer price $292,421

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $-50	+0% $-159	+5% $-268	+10% $-377
Rent	-10% $-366	-5% $-262	+0% $-159	+5% $-56	+10% $47
Rate	-1.0pp $0	-0.5pp $-79	base $-159	+0.5pp $-241	+1.0pp $-324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,867
• Closing costs: $9,464
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16608 Port Arthur Pl Northlake, TX	5.0	3.0	2339	$2,600	$1.11	12d	1	0.12mi
16616 Port Arthur Pl Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1659	$2,395	$1.44	3d	1	0.13mi
233 Cal Ford Dr Northlake, TX	5.0	2.0	1883	$2,340	$1.24	45d	1	0.41mi
229 Cal Ford Dr Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$2,250	$1.37	1d	1	0.41mi
708 Basteen Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1728	$2,300	$1.33	13d	1	0.54mi
804 Loomis Trl Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$2,285	$1.22	1d	1	0.56mi
829 Loomis Trl Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2091	$2,450	$1.17	45d	1	0.59mi
16428 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,500	$1.44	45d	1	0.64mi
16537 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1653	$2,249	$1.36	1d	1	0.68mi
16729 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,325	$1.27	4d	1	0.79mi
16020 Rein Ave Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2358	$2,355	$1.00	14d	1	1.21mi
1020 Valerian Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2144	$2,325	$1.08	45d	1	1.31mi
1045 Knightly Ln Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2388	$2,500	$1.05	45d	1	1.34mi
1201 Viscount St Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	1941	$2,700	$1.39	14d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectricpool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-06
   price $315,469 1661-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1661 chars)

   D.R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your new home builder in Lonestar at Liberty Trails, a fabulous unique master planned community in Justin and Northwest ISD! The single-story Carson Floorplan, Elevation X, with an estimated Spring completion, offers 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, delivering a spacious and functional layout designed for everyday living. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen, creating an inviting central gathering space. The kitchen features quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware, stainless steel appliances, a electric range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantry for added storage and convenience. The private primary suite is thoughtfully positioned and includes an en-suite bath with a dual quartz vanity, 5-foot oversized shower, and walk-in closet. Four secondary bedrooms are well-sized and share a full bathroom with a quartz vanity top, offering flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Luxury vinyl plank flooring extends through the main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. Additional features include energy-efficient construction, America’s Smart Home Technology, and a tank water heater. Future Community Amenities to include: Club House, Dog Park, Fishing Pond, Pickleball, Playground, Pool, Splash Pad, Walking-Nature Trails and Sand Volleyball. Situated conveniently near Highway 114 and Highway 287, Lonestar at Liberty Trails provides convenient access to key roads, making it ideal for commuting and exploring the surrounding areas.

2. 2026-05-06
   status Active 1661-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1661 chars)

   D.R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your new home builder in Lonestar at Liberty Trails, a fabulous unique master planned community in Justin and Northwest ISD! The single-story Carson Floorplan, Elevation X, with an estimated Spring completion, offers 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, delivering a spacious and functional layout designed for everyday living. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen, creating an inviting central gathering space. The kitchen features quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware, stainless steel appliances, a electric range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantry for added storage and convenience. The private primary suite is thoughtfully positioned and includes an en-suite bath with a dual quartz vanity, 5-foot oversized shower, and walk-in closet. Four secondary bedrooms are well-sized and share a full bathroom with a quartz vanity top, offering flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Luxury vinyl plank flooring extends through the main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. Additional features include energy-efficient construction, America’s Smart Home Technology, and a tank water heater. Future Community Amenities to include: Club House, Dog Park, Fishing Pond, Pickleball, Playground, Pool, Splash Pad, Walking-Nature Trails and Sand Volleyball. Situated conveniently near Highway 114 and Highway 287, Lonestar at Liberty Trails provides convenient access to key roads, making it ideal for commuting and exploring the surrounding areas.

3. 2026-03-06
   status Pending 1661-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1661 chars)

   D.R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your new home builder in Lonestar at Liberty Trails, a fabulous unique master planned community in Justin and Northwest ISD! The single-story Carson Floorplan, Elevation X, with an estimated Spring completion, offers 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, delivering a spacious and functional layout designed for everyday living. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen, creating an inviting central gathering space. The kitchen features quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware, stainless steel appliances, a electric range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantry for added storage and convenience. The private primary suite is thoughtfully positioned and includes an en-suite bath with a dual quartz vanity, 5-foot oversized shower, and walk-in closet. Four secondary bedrooms are well-sized and share a full bathroom with a quartz vanity top, offering flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Luxury vinyl plank flooring extends through the main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. Additional features include energy-efficient construction, America’s Smart Home Technology, and a tank water heater. Future Community Amenities to include: Club House, Dog Park, Fishing Pond, Pickleball, Playground, Pool, Splash Pad, Walking-Nature Trails and Sand Volleyball. Situated conveniently near Highway 114 and Highway 287, Lonestar at Liberty Trails provides convenient access to key roads, making it ideal for commuting and exploring the surrounding areas.

4. 2026-02-13
   price $301,990 1661-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1661 chars)

   D.R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your new home builder in Lonestar at Liberty Trails, a fabulous unique master planned community in Justin and Northwest ISD! The single-story Carson Floorplan, Elevation X, with an estimated Spring completion, offers 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, delivering a spacious and functional layout designed for everyday living. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen, creating an inviting central gathering space. The kitchen features quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware, stainless steel appliances, a electric range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantry for added storage and convenience. The private primary suite is thoughtfully positioned and includes an en-suite bath with a dual quartz vanity, 5-foot oversized shower, and walk-in closet. Four secondary bedrooms are well-sized and share a full bathroom with a quartz vanity top, offering flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Luxury vinyl plank flooring extends through the main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. Additional features include energy-efficient construction, America’s Smart Home Technology, and a tank water heater. Future Community Amenities to include: Club House, Dog Park, Fishing Pond, Pickleball, Playground, Pool, Splash Pad, Walking-Nature Trails and Sand Volleyball. Situated conveniently near Highway 114 and Highway 287, Lonestar at Liberty Trails provides convenient access to key roads, making it ideal for commuting and exploring the surrounding areas.

5. 2026-02-12
   listed $299,990 Active 1661-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1661 chars)

   D.R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your new home builder in Lonestar at Liberty Trails, a fabulous unique master planned community in Justin and Northwest ISD! The single-story Carson Floorplan, Elevation X, with an estimated Spring completion, offers 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, delivering a spacious and functional layout designed for everyday living. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen, creating an inviting central gathering space. The kitchen features quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware, stainless steel appliances, a electric range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantry for added storage and convenience. The private primary suite is thoughtfully positioned and includes an en-suite bath with a dual quartz vanity, 5-foot oversized shower, and walk-in closet. Four secondary bedrooms are well-sized and share a full bathroom with a quartz vanity top, offering flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Luxury vinyl plank flooring extends through the main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. Additional features include energy-efficient construction, America’s Smart Home Technology, and a tank water heater. Future Community Amenities to include: Club House, Dog Park, Fishing Pond, Pickleball, Playground, Pool, Splash Pad, Walking-Nature Trails and Sand Volleyball. Situated conveniently near Highway 114 and Highway 287, Lonestar at Liberty Trails provides convenient access to key roads, making it ideal for commuting and exploring the surrounding areas.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,671
• − Property taxes: −$4,732
• − Insurance: −$1,577
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,507
• − Management: −$2,507
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$9,177
• Taxable loss: −$7,341
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,762
• After-tax cash flow: $-150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Lonestar at Liberty Trails is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious and functional layout with a well-maintained exterior and landscaping. The property is ready for immediate occupancy and would benefit from minor updates to maintain its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains a fresh and inviting interior
• Both Kitchen appliance upgrades — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains a fresh and inviting interior ↑
• Both Kitchen appliance upgrades — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Fairview

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #901
• US rank: #16172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 10,200
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,726
• Household income: $124,383
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 91.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.16%
• Current HPI: 274.368
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.46%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+5.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $315,469 NTREIS
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $301,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $299,990 NTREIS