10354 Kolbe Ct Plan · Conroe, TX 77303

$124,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 350 Days on market

Manufactured home Good condition $80/sqft · 42% below area Est $215k · 42% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.4

Listing remarks MLS

Experience comfortable, modern living in this beautiful 4-bed, 2-bath home offering 1,501 sq. ft. of open-concept space. This home features no carpet, sleek modern finishes, and a bright, airy layout perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. With spacious bedrooms and a contemporary design throughout, this home blends style and functionality for the perfect living experience.

Key facts

• Listed 349 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.4% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patterson El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 977 students, 74% FRL); Bozman Int (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 988 students, 68% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 34% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1106 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 350 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $109,995 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 350 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.69%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,000
• List price: $124,995
• Delta: -41.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10638 Altitude Way	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (+2%)	0mo	$264,692	$165	71
11746 Airspeed Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,717 (+10%)	1mo	$264,990	$154	64
11811 Stratosphere St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (+5%)	4mo	$259,990	$158	61
10604 Altitude Way	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,772 (+13%)	5mo	$268,252	$151	50
11885 Stratosphere St	0.55mi	4/2.5	1,889 (+20%)	2mo	$259,990	$138	46
10500 Fawn Mist Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,244 (-21%)	5mo	$374,500	$301	44
10906 Ozone Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (+15%)	5mo	$267,990	$148	43
11891 Stratosphere St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (+15%)	4mo	$269,990	$149	41
9934 Sterling Place Dr	1.06mi	4/2.0	1,842 (+18%)	1mo	$239,000	$130	39
6169 White Oak Leaf Loop	1.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,761 (+12%)	2mo	$249,000	$141	38
9554 Hindo Dr	0.97mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,386 (-12%)	7mo	$275,000	$198	35
12340 N Chestnut Hills Dr	1.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,794 (+14%)	4mo	$319,000	$178	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-9,984
• Equity at exit: $18,637

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-5,813
• Equity at exit: $10,807

Cash invested: $34,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active
• Median asking: $109,995 ($73/sqft)
• Median days on market: 218 d
• This list price: 80% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +87.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1106
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,377 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $124,995

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $311	-5% $268	+0% $224	+5% $181	+10% $138
Rent	-10% $115	-5% $170	+0% $224	+5% $279	+10% $333
Rate	-1.0pp $287	-0.5pp $256	base $224	+0.5pp $192	+1.0pp $159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,249
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11085 Pine Acre Trails Blvd Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1382	$1,599	$1.16	6d	1	0.01mi
10726 Sunlit St Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,100	$0.79	157d	1	0.33mi
11014 Inflow Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$1,460	$0.82	41d	1	0.46mi
11106 Altimeter Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$1,439	$0.80	19d	1	0.52mi
9922 Sterling Place Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,707	$1.26	21d	1	1.08mi
12340 N Chestnut Hills Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1794	$1,900	$1.06	126d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $124,995 Active 350 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $124,995 Active 349 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $124,995 Active 348 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $124,995 Active 347 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $124,995 Active 346 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $124,995 Active 344 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $124,995 Active 343 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $124,995 Active 342 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $124,995 Active 341 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $124,995 Active 340 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $124,995 Active 339 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $124,995 Active 338 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $124,995 Active 337 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $124,995 Active 336 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $124,995 Active 335 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $124,995 Active 334 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $124,995 Active 333 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $124,995 Active 332 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $124,995 Active 331 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $124,995 Active 330 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $124,995 Active 329 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $124,995 Active 328 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $124,995 Active 327 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $124,995 Active 326 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $124,995 Active 325 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $124,995 Active 324 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $124,995 Active 323 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $124,995 Active 322 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $124,995 Active 321 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $124,995 Active 320 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $124,995 Active 319 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $124,995 Active 318 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $124,995 Active 317 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $124,995 Active 316 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $124,995 Active 315 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $124,995 Active 314 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $124,995 Active 313 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $124,995 Active 312 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $124,995 Active 311 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $124,995 Active 310 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $124,995 Active 309 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $124,995 Active 308 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $124,995 Active 307 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $124,995 Active 306 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $124,995 Active 305 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $124,995 Active 304 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $124,995 Active 303 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $124,995 Active 302 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $124,995 Active 301 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $124,995 Active 300 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,322
• − Management: −$1,322
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $746
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$179
• After-tax cash flow: $2,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,840–$23,520 screening

This modern, move-in-ready manufactured home offers a spacious and well-maintained interior with a good condition score. It is ready for immediate occupancy and minor cosmetic updates can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home look more inviting. ↑
• Rental Replace air filters — Clean air filters improve air quality and reduce HVAC maintenance costs, making the home more attractive to renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Patterson El F TX #2,149/4,322 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Bozman Int D- TX #572/1,662 Nat'l #5,398/14,009 High Conroe H S F TX #767/1,632 Nat'l #7,907/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-21 Price Changed $124,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-05 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-16 Listed $136,995 Zillow