5835 Cherokee Rd #52 · Morada, CA 95215

$60,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 100 Days on market

Built 1972 Fair condition $83/sqft · at area comps Est $59k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful home in the Bel Air Estates Senior Community. Home has many upgrades, must see to appreciate.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1972
• Listed 100 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $820 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.0% vs local median 2.7% in Morada — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#596 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Linden Unified (rural): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #806 of 1,400 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waverly Elementary (366 students, 77% FRL); Waterloo Elementary (332 students, 48% FRL); Linden High (761 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,600 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.29%
• DSCR: 3.82
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $59,082
• List price: $60,000
• Delta: 1.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5835 Cherokee Rd #63	0.08mi	2/1.0	648 (-10%)	10mo	$65,000	$100	71
5835 Cherokee Rd #29	0.08mi	2/1.0	648 (-10%)	12mo	$60,000	$93	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $42,546
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.22×
• Total profit: $104,534
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95215

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,646 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $820

Break-even live

Break-even rent $609

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $861	-5% $840	+0% $820	+5% $799	+10% $778
Rent	-10% $690	-5% $755	+0% $820	+5% $885	+10% $950
Rate	-1.0pp $850	-0.5pp $835	base $820	+0.5pp $804	+1.0pp $788

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $60,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $60,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 79 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$1,098
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,581
• − Management: −$1,581
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $9,493
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,278
• After-tax cash flow: $7,557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home requires cosmetic updates, including painting, flooring, and kitchen cabinets, to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Paint — Peeling paint on walls
• Major Flooring — Worn appearance
• Major Kitchen cabinets — Signs of wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating flooring — Improves appearance and functionality
• Both Updating kitchen cabinets — Enhances functionality and aesthetic appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Peeling paint on walls	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn appearance	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen cabinets · Signs of wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating flooring — Improves appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Updating kitchen cabinets — Enhances functionality and aesthetic appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Linden Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621810
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,534
• Composite: 34.76/100
• National rank: #10030
• State rank: #806 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Morada

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #19273

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 26,032

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 65% Two or more races 23% White 23% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 51% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.84%
• Current HPI: 1200.44
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B