155 Road 5203 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured · 185 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2020 Good condition 0.54 ac lot $107/sqft · 29% below area Est $227k · 29% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.3

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special good rental area.

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• Built 2020
• Listed 185 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($545/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.0% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,235 students, 90% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1804 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,918 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.22%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,794
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -29.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
369 Road 5262	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,430 (-5%)	0mo	$144,900	$101	80
625 Road 5203	0.43mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,462 (-2%)	6mo	$155,000	$106	64
1225 Road 5202	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-17%)	3mo	$224,900	$180	63
845 Road 5203	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+10%)	8mo	$255,000	$155	63
42 County Road 5201	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,647 (+10%)	5mo	$160,000	$97	61
1215 Road 5203	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+13%)	1mo	$274,500	$161	59
105 County Road 5213	1.16mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-6%)	1mo	$210,000	$148	55
874 Road 5203	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+17%)	5mo	$259,900	$149	54
805 Road 5203	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+17%)	4mo	$285,000	$163	52
595 Road 5268	0.92mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	13mo	$189,000	$131	48
177 Road 5138	1.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,600 (+7%)	10mo	$230,000	$144	38
33 Road 5136	1.49mi	3/2.0	1,155 (-23%)	4mo	$245,000	$212	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-21,666
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-9,407
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 36.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $134,995 ($96/sqft)
• Median days on market: 100 d
• This list price: 83% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +57.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1804
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,369 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,362/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$17
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $91	+0% $45	+5% $0	+10% $-45
Rent	-10% $-63	-5% $-9	+0% $45	+5% $99	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $86	base $45	+0.5pp $4	+1.0pp $-38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
824 Road 5203 Cleveland, TX	3.0	3.5	1920	$2,150	$1.12	0d	1	0.30mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-30
   days on market $160,000 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-29
   days on market $160,000 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-28
   days on market $160,000 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-27
   days on market $160,000 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-24
   days on market $160,000 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-22
   days on market $160,000 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-16
    days on market $160,000 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-06-15
    days on market $160,000 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-06-13
    days on market $160,000 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-06-09
    days on market $160,000 Active 164 DOM
14. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 163 DOM
15. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 162 DOM
16. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 159 DOM
17. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 158 DOM
18. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 157 DOM
19. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 156 DOM
20. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 155 DOM
21. 2026-01-22
    price $160,000 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    Investor special good rental area. 3 bedroom 2 bath on over 1/2 acre with 24x22 workshop

22. 2026-01-20
    price $125,000 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    Investor special good rental area. 3 bedroom 2 bath on over 1/2 acre with 24x22 workshop

23. 2025-12-27
    listed $160,000 Active 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    Investor special good rental area. 3 bedroom 2 bath on over 1/2 acre with 24x22 workshop

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,362 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,566/yr (+$130/mo · 114.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,362
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,314
• − Management: −$1,314
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,182
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$524
• After-tax cash flow: $1,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,500–$22,500 screening

This manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, making it a solid investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both furniture — enhances rental appeal and resale value ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 25/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Southside El F TX #3,759/4,322 Nat'l #34,688/41,679 Middle Santa Fe Middle High Cleveland H S F TX #1,077/1,632 Nat'l #10,806/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 87,956 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

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Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-27 Listed $160,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,362 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.