2631 Bayshore Dr · Matlacha, FL 33993

$439,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,326 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 209 Days on market

Built 1955 7,971 sqft lot Est $492k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Single-family residence situated on an oversized corner lot with three bedrooms plus den and two baths. This space sums to 1,400 square feet and features dual pane double-hung windows throughout with plantation shutters, vibrant terrazzo and tile floors. Enjoy sunrises on the screened lanai (15x34) with travertine tile floor and French doors leading to your backyard canal. The kitchen features granite countertops, custom soft-close cabinets and pull-out racks, as well as stainless steel appliances. Enjoy additional storage in the 16x20 shed, capable of holding a car and is strapped down. Roof is three years ol, Convenient, additional parking space for cars and/or a boat, a great benefit of being on an irregular/oversized corner lot. All work done on this house was performed by licensed contractors, permitted and inspected.

Key facts

• Private boat dock
• Boat lift
• 7,971 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIVATE BOAT DOCK
• BOAT LIFT
• DIRECT ACCESS TO GULF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: TFC2; Lot dimensions: 100 x 77 x 87 x 111; Lot size approximately 0.183 acres; Exposure: Southeast
• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Community features: Boat facilities; Community is non-gated; No association fee reported

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 covered space)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry level 1; Northwest-facing; Resale property; Has a view
• Construction: Brick, block and concrete construction; Shingle roof; Corner, irregular lot; Canal access waterfront
• Exterior features: Fence; Shutters (manual); Open porch; Screened porch / lanai (33.4 x 7.8); Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (20.2 x 10.8); Bedroom (14.4 x 11.11); Bedroom (10.1 x 13.2)
• Flooring: Terrazzo; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: French doors / atrium doors; Fireplace; Living/dining room combination; Shower only (separate shower); Cable TV available; Home office; Split bedroom layout; Single hung and sliding windows; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $439k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($517/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $439k).
• Recommended offer: $386k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#824 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 2652 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,408/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 286% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($386k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $386,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.58%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $491,946
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2703 Clyde St	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,403 (+6%)	9mo	$410,000	$292	73
11924 Island Ave	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,343 (+1%)	15mo	$825,000	$614	56
2709 Clyde St	0.12mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,147 (-14%)	18mo	$425,000	$371	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-80,996
• Equity at exit: $65,456

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-115,640
• Equity at exit: $37,957

Cash invested: $122,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33993

• Home prices YoY: -14.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 2652
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,408 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax from tax record: −$528 /mo · $6,334/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$926
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,354

Max offer price $439,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,750
• Closing costs: $13,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2669 Coco Plum Dr Matlacha, FL	3.0	2.0	1533	$4,800	$3.13	19d	1	0.18mi
2758 Bruce St Matlacha, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$5,500	$3.92	24d	1	0.25mi
4743 Pine Island Rd NW Matlacha, FL	2.0	2.5	1400	$12,000	$8.57	24d	1	0.38mi
2579 3rd St Matlacha, FL	3.0	3.0	1402	$5,500	$3.92	24d	1	0.45mi
2585 3rd St Matlacha, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$4,500	$4.81	24d	1	0.46mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $439,000 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $439,000 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $439,000 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $439,000 Active 205 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $439,000 Active 201 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $439,000 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $439,000 Active 194 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $439,000 Active 193 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $439,000 Active 192 DOM
10. 2026-04-01
    price $439,000
11. 2026-02-10
    price $475,000
12. 2025-11-17
    listed $485,000 Active
13. 2025-10-17
    historical
14. 2025-06-19
    price $485,000
15. 2025-02-12
    price $585,000
16. 2024-11-29
    price $490,000
17. 2024-10-21
    listed $525,000 Active
18. 2022-03-04
    soldstatus $665,000
19. 2022-02-24
    soldstatus $665,000 Sold 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Single-family residence situated on an oversized corner lot with three bedrooms plus den and two baths. This space sums to 1,400 square feet and features dual pane double-hung windows throughout with plantation shutters, vibrant terrazzo and tile floors. Enjoy sunrises on the screened lanai (15x34) with travertine tile floor and French doors leading to your backyard canal. The kitchen features granite countertops, custom soft-close cabinets and pull-out racks, as well as stainless steel appliances. Enjoy additional storage in the 16x20 shed, capable of holding a car and is strapped down. Roof is three years ol, Convenient, additional parking space for cars and/or a boat, a great benefit of being on an irregular/oversized corner lot. All work done on this house was performed by licensed contractors, permitted and inspected.

20. 2022-01-26
    status Pending With Contingencies 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Single-family residence situated on an oversized corner lot with three bedrooms plus den and two baths. This space sums to 1,400 square feet and features dual pane double-hung windows throughout with plantation shutters, vibrant terrazzo and tile floors. Enjoy sunrises on the screened lanai (15x34) with travertine tile floor and French doors leading to your backyard canal. The kitchen features granite countertops, custom soft-close cabinets and pull-out racks, as well as stainless steel appliances. Enjoy additional storage in the 16x20 shed, capable of holding a car and is strapped down. Roof is three years ol, Convenient, additional parking space for cars and/or a boat, a great benefit of being on an irregular/oversized corner lot. All work done on this house was performed by licensed contractors, permitted and inspected.

21. 2022-01-20
    listed $650,000 Active 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Single-family residence situated on an oversized corner lot with three bedrooms plus den and two baths. This space sums to 1,400 square feet and features dual pane double-hung windows throughout with plantation shutters, vibrant terrazzo and tile floors. Enjoy sunrises on the screened lanai (15x34) with travertine tile floor and French doors leading to your backyard canal. The kitchen features granite countertops, custom soft-close cabinets and pull-out racks, as well as stainless steel appliances. Enjoy additional storage in the 16x20 shed, capable of holding a car and is strapped down. Roof is three years ol, Convenient, additional parking space for cars and/or a boat, a great benefit of being on an irregular/oversized corner lot. All work done on this house was performed by licensed contractors, permitted and inspected.

22. 2015-06-15
    soldstatus $335,000
23. 2015-06-12
    price $335,000
24. 2015-06-05
    soldstatus $335,000 Sold
25. 2015-06-05
    price $339,000
26. 2015-04-22
    status Pending
27. 2015-04-07
    price $339,000
28. 2015-03-23
    price $354,900
29. 2015-02-09
    listed $359,900 Active
30. 2004-09-15
    soldstatus $375,000
31. 2004-08-31
    soldstatus $375,000
32. 2004-08-04
    price $389,000
33. 2001-12-04
    soldstatus $125,000
34. 1989-02-01
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,334 · $528/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,334 · $528/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,591
• − Property taxes: −$6,334
• − Insurance: −$7,314
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,232
• − Management: −$4,232
• − Depreciation: −$12,771
• Taxable loss: −$6,574
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,578
• After-tax cash flow: $2,095/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Matlacha

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #824
• US rank: #20183

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment C Housing B- Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Matlacha, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,580
• Household income: $90,577
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 286.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 21% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 17% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.34%
• Current HPI: 337.0575
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.51%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+485.3% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $439,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $475,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $485,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $485,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-02-12 Price Changed $585,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-11-29 Price Changed $490,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-10-21 Listed $525,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $665,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-24 Sold (MLS) $665,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2022-01-26 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2022-01-20 Listed $650,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2015-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $335,000 Public Records
• 2015-06-12 Price Changed $335,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-06-05 Price Changed $339,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-06-05 Sold (MLS) $335,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-04-22 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2015-04-07 Price Changed $339,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-03-23 Price Changed $354,900 FORTMLS
• 2015-02-09 Listed $359,900 FORTMLS
• 2004-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-31 Sold (MLS) $375,000 FORTMLS
• 2004-08-04 Price Changed $389,000 FORTMLS
• 2001-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 1989-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,334 · -17.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.