111 Pecan Orchard Ln · Marble Falls, TX 78654

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2003 1.84 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to peaceful country living with the convenience of being just minutes from town! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home sits on 1.84 unrestricted acres just minutes from Marble Falls, a rare opportunity to find this much space so close to town. Offering plenty of privacy and flexibility with no HOA restrictions, the property includes three storage buildings, perfect for hobbies, equipment, workshop space, or additional storage. Enjoy wide open spaces, room for pets, gardening, or outdoor entertaining while still being close to shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, investment property, or weekend retreat, this property offers great potential and the freedom to make it your own.

Key facts

• Wide open spaces
• Outdoor entertaining
• Room for pets

Tags

• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS
• THREE STORAGE BUILDINGS
• WIDE OPEN SPACES
• ROOM FOR PETS
• GARDENING
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Carport (detached carport); Open parking; Space for about 4 vehicles
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Phone available; Sewer connected (septic tank); Water connected (well)
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces southwest; Resale property; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Built per public records; Vinyl siding; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered front porch and additional covered porch/deck; Exterior steps; Shed(s) on the property; Back yard and front yard; Many large trees; Partial chain-link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar; Dining area; Laminate counters; Free-standing electric range/oven; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Double vanity and garden/roman tub in primary bath; Tile countertops in bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and cooling; Electric heating and cooling; Fireplace heating (wood capable); Ceiling fans; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans in multiple rooms; Multiple living areas; Main level primary bedroom; No interior steps; Walk-in closets; Blinds and window screens
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($165/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.8% in Marble Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#367 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marble Falls El (math 41% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 570 students, 70% FRL); Marble Falls Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 911 students, 67% FRL); Marble Falls H S (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,145 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 764 active listings in the ZIP; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,053 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.68%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-37,692
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-52,365
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78654

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 764
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,841 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,560/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,823

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $130	-5% $72	+0% $14	+5% $-44	+10% $-102
Rent	-10% $-132	-5% $-59	+0% $14	+5% $86	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $117	-0.5pp $66	base $14	+0.5pp $-39	+1.0pp $-93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $205,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   status $205,000 Pending 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 43 DOM

   Show marketing remark (751 chars)

   Escape to peaceful country living with the convenience of being just minutes from town! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home sits on 1.84 unrestricted acres just minutes from Marble Falls, a rare opportunity to find this much space so close to town. Offering plenty of privacy and flexibility with no HOA restrictions, the property includes three storage buildings, perfect for hobbies, equipment, workshop space, or additional storage. Enjoy wide open spaces, room for pets, gardening, or outdoor entertaining while still being close to shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, investment property, or weekend retreat, this property offers great potential and the freedom to make it your own.

4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 42 DOM

   Show marketing remark (751 chars)

   Escape to peaceful country living with the convenience of being just minutes from town! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home sits on 1.84 unrestricted acres just minutes from Marble Falls, a rare opportunity to find this much space so close to town. Offering plenty of privacy and flexibility with no HOA restrictions, the property includes three storage buildings, perfect for hobbies, equipment, workshop space, or additional storage. Enjoy wide open spaces, room for pets, gardening, or outdoor entertaining while still being close to shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, investment property, or weekend retreat, this property offers great potential and the freedom to make it your own.

5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $205,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $205,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-05-01
    listed $205,000 Active 650-char remark
14. 2026-04-29
    listed $205,000 Active 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (751 chars)

    Escape to peaceful country living with the convenience of being just minutes from town! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home sits on 1.84 unrestricted acres just minutes from Marble Falls, a rare opportunity to find this much space so close to town. Offering plenty of privacy and flexibility with no HOA restrictions, the property includes three storage buildings, perfect for hobbies, equipment, workshop space, or additional storage. Enjoy wide open spaces, room for pets, gardening, or outdoor entertaining while still being close to shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, investment property, or weekend retreat, this property offers great potential and the freedom to make it your own.

15. 2025-10-03
    price
16. 2025-09-26
    price
17. 2025-09-17
    price
18. 2025-09-10
    price
19. 2025-08-26
    price
20. 2025-08-12
    listed Active
21. 2010-07-07
    soldstatus
22. 2010-06-17
    historical
23. 2010-02-26
    listed $87,000
24. 2009-10-02
    soldstatus
25. 2004-04-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,192/yr (+$99/mo · 46.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,086
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$2,560
• − Insurance: −$1,822
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,767
• − Management: −$1,767
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$3,277
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$786
• After-tax cash flow: $952/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marble Falls

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #7802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Burnet County · 35,210 people
• City population: 20,650
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,650
• Household income: $74,130
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.02%
• Current HPI: 252.9861
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.62%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+135.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-13 Pending — HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-01 Listed $205,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $205,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2010-07-07 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2010-06-17 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2010-02-26 Listed $87,000 Unlock MLS
• 2009-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,560 · +45.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.