13414 Horncastle Way · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40272

$225,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 1957 10,018 sqft lot Est $208k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Add this property to your rental portfolio. It is an 1176 SF, 3 BRs and 1.5 Bath home that needs just a few cosmetic updates to get it ready for a tenant. Spacious living room, a bonus/family room needs insulation and drywall. Heating, cooling and water heater are in good working order. There is a wide driveway leading to an oversized 1 car garage. Fenced yard. Sold AS IS.

Key facts

• Natural light
• Tile flooring
• Conveniently located

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Valley Village subdivision
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with space for 2 cars; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family ranch-style home; One story; Built in 1957
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features listed; Sidewalk on the lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms, all on the first floor (primary bedroom on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Nine total rooms; Five closets; No basement; First-floor primary bedroom; First-floor full bathroom
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $225k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,570 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.59%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,900
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6902 John Adams Way	0.29mi	4/1.5	1,464 (+8%)	2mo	$217,000	$148	71
13501 Horncastle Way	0.04mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,165 (-14%)	3mo	$210,000	$180	68
6910 John Adams Way	0.34mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,459 (+8%)	1mo	$225,000	$154	65
14910 Galston Blvd	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,269 (-6%)	2mo	$196,000	$154	63
13015 Dixie Hwy	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,460 (+8%)	1mo	$235,000	$161	62
15008 Galston Blvd	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,240 (-8%)	4mo	$155,000	$125	59
7307 Nathan Hale Way	0.67mi	4/1.0	1,204 (-11%)	1mo	$215,000	$179	48
7408 Wimstock Ave	0.75mi	4/1.0	1,230 (-9%)	2mo	$219,500	$178	47
13422 Hopedale Way	0.51mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-13%)	2mo	$155,000	$132	47
7309 Rainbow Dr	0.73mi	4/1.0	1,230 (-9%)	4mo	$177,000	$144	46
14017 Beeston Blvd	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,230 (-9%)	4mo	$170,000	$138	42
7114 Nathan Hale Way	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-13%)	3mo	$169,900	$144	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-32,916
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-28,950
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40272

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,786 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $644/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,680

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $211	-5% $147	+0% $83	+5% $20	+10% $-44
Rent	-10% $-58	-5% $13	+0% $83	+5% $154	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $197	-0.5pp $141	base $83	+0.5pp $25	+1.0pp $-34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13217 Forge Cir Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1092	$1,495	$1.37	3d	1	0.31mi
6902 Betsy Ross Dr Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1230	$1,700	$1.38	15d	1	0.42mi
7019 James Madison Way Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,750	$1.27	3d	1	0.54mi
12306 Glengrove Cir Louisville, KY	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1215	$1,976	$1.63	3d	36	1.14mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-28
    listed $225,000 Active
16. 2021-08-04
    soldstatus $105,500
17. 2021-08-03
    soldstatus $105,500 Closed 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Add this property to your rental portfolio. It is an 1176 SF, 3 BRs and 1.5 Bath home that needs just a few cosmetic updates to get it ready for a tenant. Spacious living room, a bonus/family room needs insulation and drywall. Heating, cooling and water heater are in good working order. There is a wide driveway leading to an oversized 1 car garage. Fenced yard. Sold AS IS.

18. 2021-07-28
    status Pending 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Add this property to your rental portfolio. It is an 1176 SF, 3 BRs and 1.5 Bath home that needs just a few cosmetic updates to get it ready for a tenant. Spacious living room, a bonus/family room needs insulation and drywall. Heating, cooling and water heater are in good working order. There is a wide driveway leading to an oversized 1 car garage. Fenced yard. Sold AS IS.

19. 2021-07-23
    listed $110,000 Active 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Add this property to your rental portfolio. It is an 1176 SF, 3 BRs and 1.5 Bath home that needs just a few cosmetic updates to get it ready for a tenant. Spacious living room, a bonus/family room needs insulation and drywall. Heating, cooling and water heater are in good working order. There is a wide driveway leading to an oversized 1 car garage. Fenced yard. Sold AS IS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $644 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,935 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,291/yr (+$108/mo · 200.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$644
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,714
• − Management: −$1,714
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,918
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$700
• After-tax cash flow: $1,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,289
• Household income: $69,940
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.10%
• Current HPI: 247.2954
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.07%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+104.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $225,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $105,500 Public Records
• 2021-08-03 Sold (MLS) $105,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-07-28 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2021-07-23 Listed $110,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $644 · -6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.