1131 Baird Ln NE · Rochester, MN 55906

$489,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,836 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1992 0.43 ac lot $173/sqft · 16% below area Est $582k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for main floor living? This lovely Viking Hills 3 bedroom, 3 bath ranch style is a gem! With a flat . 46 acre lot, near the end of a cul-de-sac and top of the hill, this well designed, one-owner home has many attractive features: Main floor primary bedroom w/ bath and walk-in closet, main floor laundry, kitchen with stainless appliances, granite countertops and center island. Bay windows in living & dining rooms provide an abundance of natural light and vaulted ceiling creates an open feeling. Main floor den features a wall of built-in cabinets surrounding the cozy 2-sided fireplace. Sip coffee in the screened porch or enjoy nature in the wooded backyard. Back inside, the lo

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flat lot
• Main floor laundry

Tags

• MAIN FLOOR LIVING
• FLAT LOT
• CUL-DE-SAC
• PRIMARY BEDROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not a fractional ownership property

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with concrete floor and automatic garage door opener
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas fuel; 150 amp electrical service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential property; One level living with lower level finished space; Entry located at top of hill (per directions)
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less); Block foundation (basement)
• Exterior features: Covered screened porch; Stone and vinyl exterior; Medium tree coverage; Publicly maintained road access; Irregular lot shape

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with center island and window; Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary suite on main level); Additional bedrooms located on lower level
• Bathrooms: Primary bathroom is a 3/4 bath; One full bathroom in the basement; Half bathroom on the main floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Paneled doors; Main floor primary bedroom; Primary bedroom walk-in closet; All living facilities on one level; Main floor bedroom; Main floor laundry; Primary bedroom suite; Separate formal dining room; Two-sided fireplace; Finished basement with daylight/lookout windows, egress window(s), tiled drain and storage space
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater; Humidifier; Owned water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $490k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-698 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $367k (25.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (34.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $320k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.5% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in MN, #27 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Rochester Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #152 of 301 in MN (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Century Senior High (math 37% / reading 67%, grade D+, #111 of 471 statewide, top 26%, 1,698 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.2%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,267 units permitted in Olmsted County in 2024 (915 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Olmsted County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $490k implies a 1385% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $319,521 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.11%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $582,000
• List price: $489,900
• Delta: -15.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1404 Glendale Hills Dr NE	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,850 (+0%)	6mo	$582,000	$204	64
1414 Glendale Hills Dr NE	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,929 (+3%)	15mo	$512,000	$175	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-107,017
• Equity at exit: $73,046

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-73,803
• Equity at exit: $42,358

Cash invested: $137,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55906

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,195 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,569
• Tax from tax record: −$449 /mo · $5,390/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$671
• Net cashflow: $-698

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,079

Max offer price $366,566

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,475
• Closing costs: $14,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4033 Cameo Pl NE Rochester, MN	4.0	3.5	3480	$4,900	$1.41	13d	1	0.51mi
2669 Kathleen Ln NE Unit NA Rochester, MN	4.0	3.5	3122	$2,745	$0.88	44d	1	1.18mi
808 Chalet Dr NW Rochester, MN	4.0	3.0	2305	$2,250	$0.98	13d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 996-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $489,900 Active 996-char remark
3. 1992-03-01
   soldstatus $33,000
4. 1990-07-01
   soldstatus $40,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,390 · $449/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,438 · $453/mo
• Expected delta: +$48/yr (+$4/mo · 0.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,442
• − Property taxes: −$5,390
• − Insurance: −$2,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,067
• − Management: −$3,067
• − Depreciation: −$14,252
• Taxable loss: −$17,325
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,158
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2731800
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,540
• Composite: 40.6/100
• National rank: #3695
• State rank: #152 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #27

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, MN
• County: Olmsted County · 135,035 people
• City population: 135,035
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• Population (ZIP): 20,437
• Household income: $93,685
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 438.0

Population outlook (Olmsted County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,999 people
• By 2030: 172,425 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 183,785 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 192,981 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 215,284 · +29.7%
• By 2100: 224,887 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 8% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Olmsted

• 2024 margin: D (+10.7) · D 54.3% · R 43.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 10.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.7 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+0.8 2012: D+3.2 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.46%
• Current HPI: 252.9003
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+1097.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $489,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 1990-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,390 · +18.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.