8617 Marlin Pl · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$320,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 2015 2,178 sqft lot $208/sqft · 19% below area Est $397k · 19% under $200/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to sell, 8617 Marlin Place offers an incredible opportunity to own in a gated community in Panama City Beach. Built in 2015 and recently refreshed with new interior paint, this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home features nearly 1,600 square feet of well-designed living space. The primary bedroom is located on the first floor with a walk-in closet and private bath with tiled shower. The open living area offers 9-foot ceilings, and the kitchen includes granite countertops, white shaker cabinetry, and stainless appliances. Upstairs features two additional bedrooms, including one with a private balcony. Community pool and low-maintenance living with HOA covering lawn care, trash, and gated access. Convenient to the Navy base, St. Andrews State Park, and the beach.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Community pool
• Private balcony

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING
• HOA COVERING LAWN CARE
• CONVENIENT TO NAVY BASE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-278 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Breakfast Point Academy (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 1,058 students, 47% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1032 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,032 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.72%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $397,190
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: -19.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8615 Marlin Pl	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,536 (0%)	1mo	$268,000	$174	97
8611 Marlin Pl	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,512 (-2%)	2mo	$267,500	$177	94
8645 Marlin Pl	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,458 (-5%)	3mo	$262,000	$180	84
8437 Warner Pl	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,647 (+7%)	2mo	$400,000	$243	80
609 Sabal Palm Way	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,526 (-1%)	9mo	$415,000	$272	65
8911 Laird St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+4%)	13mo	$404,000	$253	64
198 Laird Cir	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,613 (+5%)	13mo	$485,000	$301	58
218 Hidden Pines Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+6%)	0mo	$385,375	$238	56
149 Sandollar Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-8%)	6mo	$375,000	$266	55
9129 Abba Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,468 (-4%)	0mo	$420,000	$286	54
3116 Laurie Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+4%)	6mo	$485,000	$304	54
1840 Annabellas Dr	0.58mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,404 (-9%)	2mo	$190,000	$135	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-70,599
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-88,587
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1032
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,370 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,663/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,722

Max offer price $270,978

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-96	-5% $-187	+0% $-278	+5% $-368	+10% $-459
Rent	-10% $-465	-5% $-371	+0% $-278	+5% $-184	+10% $-90
Rate	-1.0pp $-116	-0.5pp $-196	base $-278	+0.5pp $-360	+1.0pp $-445

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,950	$2.71	15d	18	0.15mi
8700 Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1543	$2,400	$1.56	15d	2	0.35mi
140 Treasure Palm Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,350	$1.50	23d	1	0.39mi
1744 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	15d	1	0.49mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,184	$2.26	15d	12	0.50mi
1734 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	23d	1	0.51mi
1609 Vecuna Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,100	$1.66	15d	1	0.53mi
1846 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1404	$1,850	$1.32	23d	1	0.55mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,355	$2.31	15d	41	0.60mi
2110 Sterling Cove Blvd Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,800	$1.56	23d	1	0.63mi
2917 Allison Ave Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,700	$1.07	23d	1	0.67mi
2148 Sterling Cove Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,695	$1.47	23d	1	0.70mi
8623 N Lagoon Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1600	$2,350	$1.47	23d	1	0.89mi
2858 Joan Ave Unit 1523343P Panama City, FL	4.0	3.0	1754	$5,270	$3.00	15d	1	0.91mi
7110 London St Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1419	$2,157	$1.52	15d	6	0.99mi
7682 Shadow Lake Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,875	$1.25	23d	1	1.02mi
7664 Shadow Lake Dr Unit 1523352P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1539	$3,210	$2.09	15d	1	1.04mi
8715 Surf Dr Unit 1523323P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$5,377	$4.50	15d	1	1.09mi
204 Potters Bluff Dr Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$1,947	$1.88	15d	12	1.31mi
7813 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	23d	1	1.36mi
7405A Beach Dr Unit 1355031P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1291	$2,124	$1.65	23d	1	1.38mi
9902 S Thomas Dr Unit 1354966P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,970	$1.56	15d	1	1.39mi
9815 S Thomas Dr Unit 1523339P Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1259	$4,018	$3.19	23d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Likely covers: trashlandscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $320,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $320,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $320,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $320,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $320,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $320,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $320,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 69 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 68 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $320,000 Active 67 DOM
19. 2026-03-24
    listed $320,000 Active 767-char remark

    Show marketing remark (767 chars)

    Priced to sell, 8617 Marlin Place offers an incredible opportunity to own in a gated community in Panama City Beach. Built in 2015 and recently refreshed with new interior paint, this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home features nearly 1,600 square feet of well-designed living space. The primary bedroom is located on the first floor with a walk-in closet and private bath with tiled shower. The open living area offers 9-foot ceilings, and the kitchen includes granite countertops, white shaker cabinetry, and stainless appliances. Upstairs features two additional bedrooms, including one with a private balcony. Community pool and low-maintenance living with HOA covering lawn care, trash, and gated access. Convenient to the Navy base, St. Andrews State Park, and the beach.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,663 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,656 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$993/yr (+$83/mo · 59.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$1,663
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,276
• − Management: −$2,276
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$9,005
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,161
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 50,689
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $320,000 ECAR

Property tax history

+32.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,663 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.