Belmont (Sawyier) Plan · Lexington-Fayette, KY 40324

$75,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,193 sqft · Manufactured · 123 Days on market

Excellent condition $500/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Belmont offers a smart, spacious layout designed for comfortable everyday living. This thoughtfully designed home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, providing plenty of room for family and guests. At the heart of the home, you'll find a beautiful, well-appointed kitchen that flows seamlessly into an expansive living area with extended length-perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or creating flexible spaces to fit your lifestyle. With its open design and generous proportions, the Belmont delivers both functionality and style in a home that truly feels inviting.

Key facts

• Listed 122 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Scott County (town): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #31 of 165 in KY (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 546 units permitted in Scott County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $525 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Scott County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.

Recommended offer $66,875 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.62%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $11,310
• Equity at exit: $11,331

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $41,196
• Equity at exit: $6,571

Cash invested: $21,279 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40324

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,761 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$399
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$95 /mo · $1,140/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$500
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,298

Max offer price $75,995

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,999
• Closing costs: $2,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $500 · $6,000/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,995 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,995 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,995 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,995 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,995 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,995 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,995 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,995 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,995 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,995 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,995 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,995 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,995 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,995 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,995 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-02-16
    listed $75,995 Active 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    The Belmont offers a smart, spacious layout designed for comfortable everyday living. This thoughtfully designed home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, providing plenty of room for family and guests. At the heart of the home, you'll find a beautiful, well-appointed kitchen that flows seamlessly into an expansive living area with extended length-perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or creating flexible spaces to fit your lifestyle. With its open design and generous proportions, the Belmont delivers both functionality and style in a home that truly feels inviting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,257
• − Property taxes: −$1,140
• − Insurance: −$380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,690
• − Management: −$1,690
• − HOA: −$6,000
• − Depreciation: −$2,211
• Taxable income: $3,759
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$902
• After-tax cash flow: $3,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious and well-designed layout with modern finishes and a clean exterior, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Add a small patio or deck — A small outdoor space can increase the home's appeal and functionality for both resale and rental purposes.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add a small patio or deck — A small outdoor space can increase the home's appeal and functionality for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scott County
• NCES district ID: 2105260
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $61,324
• Composite: 33.87/100
• National rank: #5348
• State rank: #31 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lexington-Fayette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Scott County · 53,406 people
• City population: 321,882
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 53,406
• Household income: $85,110
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 993.0

Population outlook (Scott County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,814 people
• By 2030: 69,637 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 81,315 · +27.4%
• By 2050: 92,677 · +45.2%
• By 2075: 118,956 · +86.4%
• By 2100: 136,792 · +114.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Scott

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.7) · D 35.3% · R 63.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.6pp · 2024: -27.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.7 2020: R+24.9 2016: R+30.4 2012: R+25.0 2008: R+20.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.49%
• Current HPI: 187.89
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Listed $75,995 Zillow