304 Kelcey Ct · Trenton, TX 75490

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,830 sqft · SingleFamily · 525 Days on market

Built 2023 $164/sqft · at area comps Est $307k · at est. ↓ 23% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful new home in a small cul-d-sac neighborhood off of Hwy 121 in Trenton. Home is an open concept floor plan with primary bedroom secluded. Home has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, nice living and kitchen area with custom kitchen cabinets with pantry. Backyard has a nice back porch.

Key facts

• Back porch
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2023

Tags

• CUL-D-SAC NEIGHBORHOOD
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY BEDROOM SECLUDED
• CUSTOM KITCHEN CABINETS
• BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-493 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (33.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.7% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,108 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Trenton ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #483 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 82 units permitted in Fannin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fannin County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 525 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $200,000 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 525 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.04%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,291
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -2.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 Kelcey Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,850 (+1%)	10mo	$319,900	$173	90
311 Kelcey Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,850 (+1%)	14mo	$319,900	$173	87
118 Indian Crk	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,829 (-0%)	2mo	$415,995	$227	83
212 Texas NONE	0.10mi	3/2.0	2,035 (+11%)	22mo	$255,000	$125	58
1304 Cole Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,898 (+4%)	9mo	$359,990	$190	52
109 Indian Crk	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,642 (-10%)	20mo	$355,000	$216	51
211 W Saunders St	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,569 (-14%)	11mo	$173,000	$110	45
602 S Pearl St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-12%)	22mo	$189,000	$117	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $131,993
• Equity at exit: $270,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $413,428
• Equity at exit: $582,640

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75490

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,498/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-493

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,623

Max offer price $228,628

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
340 Sunnyside Dr Unit B Trenton, TX	3.0	3.5	1673	$2,000	$1.20	1d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 525 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 524 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 523 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 522 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 520 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 516 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 515 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 514 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,900 Active 511 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 510 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 509 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 508 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 507 DOM
14. 2026-05-09
    status Active 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Beautiful new home in a small cul-d-sac neighborhood off of Hwy 121 in Trenton. Home is an open concept floor plan with primary bedroom secluded. Home has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, nice living and kitchen area with custom kitchen cabinets with pantry. Backyard has a nice back porch.

15. 2026-05-07
    historical 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Beautiful new home in a small cul-d-sac neighborhood off of Hwy 121 in Trenton. Home is an open concept floor plan with primary bedroom secluded. Home has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, nice living and kitchen area with custom kitchen cabinets with pantry. Backyard has a nice back porch.

16. 2026-02-09
    price $299,900 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Beautiful new home in a small cul-d-sac neighborhood off of Hwy 121 in Trenton. Home is an open concept floor plan with primary bedroom secluded. Home has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, nice living and kitchen area with custom kitchen cabinets with pantry. Backyard has a nice back porch.

17. 2026-01-20
    price $304,500 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Beautiful new home in a small cul-d-sac neighborhood off of Hwy 121 in Trenton. Home is an open concept floor plan with primary bedroom secluded. Home has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, nice living and kitchen area with custom kitchen cabinets with pantry. Backyard has a nice back porch.

18. 2025-08-06
    price $309,000 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Beautiful new home in a small cul-d-sac neighborhood off of Hwy 121 in Trenton. Home is an open concept floor plan with primary bedroom secluded. Home has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, nice living and kitchen area with custom kitchen cabinets with pantry. Backyard has a nice back porch.

19. 2025-01-17
    price $319,900 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Beautiful new home in a small cul-d-sac neighborhood off of Hwy 121 in Trenton. Home is an open concept floor plan with primary bedroom secluded. Home has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, nice living and kitchen area with custom kitchen cabinets with pantry. Backyard has a nice back porch.

20. 2025-01-07
    listed $349,000 Active 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Beautiful new home in a small cul-d-sac neighborhood off of Hwy 121 in Trenton. Home is an open concept floor plan with primary bedroom secluded. Home has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, nice living and kitchen area with custom kitchen cabinets with pantry. Backyard has a nice back porch.

21. 2024-11-27
    historical
22. 2024-08-01
    price $349,000
23. 2024-05-08
    price $359,000
24. 2024-03-27
    price $369,000
25. 2023-11-27
    price $385,000
26. 2023-11-27
    listed $389,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,498
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$11,361
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,727
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843140
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $61,383
• Composite: 31.38/100
• National rank: #5993
• State rank: #483 of 826 in TX

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1108
• US rank: #19614

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,024

Population outlook (Fannin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,423 people
• By 2030: 33,035 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 32,250 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 31,462 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 29,447 · -11.9%
• By 2100: 25,459 · -23.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fannin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.4) · D 15.9% · R 83.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.8pp toward R · 2008: -39.6pp · 2024: -67.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.4 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+52.5 2008: R+39.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.09%
• Current HPI: 301.2127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-05-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $299,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $304,500 NTREIS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $309,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-17 Price Changed $319,900 NTREIS
• 2025-01-07 Listed $349,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-08-01 Price Changed $349,000 NTREIS
• 2024-05-08 Price Changed $359,000 NTREIS
• 2024-03-27 Price Changed $369,000 NTREIS
• 2023-11-27 Price Changed $385,000 NTREIS
• 2023-11-27 Listed $389,000 NTREIS