2458 Shelby Dry Frk · Pikeville, KY 41562

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · SingleFamily · 177 Days on market

Built 1991 0.25 ac lot $96/sqft · at area comps Est $129k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Get cozy in this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home only minutes from downtown Pikeville. Attached garage offers space for your vehicle or a great storage option. Great home for a couple or a small family.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1991

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.7% in Pikeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#139 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,158 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.60%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,627
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: 4.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $27,283
• Equity at exit: $78,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $86,541
• Equity at exit: $136,320

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41562

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,102 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,499/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,210

Max offer price $119,927

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $135,000 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $135,000 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $135,000 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $135,000 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $135,000 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-04-22
   price $135,000 193-char remark

   Show marketing remark (193 chars)

   Get cozy in this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home only minutes from downtown Pikeville. Attached garage offers space for your vehicle or a great storage option. Great home for a couple or a small family.

7. 2025-12-08
   listed $160,000 Active 193-char remark

   Show marketing remark (193 chars)

   Get cozy in this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home only minutes from downtown Pikeville. Attached garage offers space for your vehicle or a great storage option. Great home for a couple or a small family.

8. 2021-09-30
   soldstatus $110,000
9. 2021-09-24
   soldstatus $110,000 375-char remark

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   Cozy up in this charming 1.5 story, 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home located just minutes away from downtown Pikeville. Partially fenced yard, private parking/attached garage, and a substantial amount of storage space. Enjoy meals in your new eat-in kitchen or head outside to have coffee on your back patio. This home has something to offer everyone, schedule your showing today.

10. 2021-01-12
    listed $110,000 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Cozy up in this charming 1.5 story, 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home located just minutes away from downtown Pikeville. Partially fenced yard, private parking/attached garage, and a substantial amount of storage space. Enjoy meals in your new eat-in kitchen or head outside to have coffee on your back patio. This home has something to offer everyone, schedule your showing today.

11. 2012-08-28
    soldstatus $99,000
12. 1993-02-01
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,499 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,499 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,499
• − Insurance: −$1,472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,058
• − Management: −$1,058
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$3,357
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$806
• After-tax cash flow: $-218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — Pikeville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #139
• US rank: #6715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,779

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.20%
• Current HPI: 122.8091
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+650.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $135,000 EKAR
• 2025-12-08 Listed $160,000 EKAR
• 2021-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-24 Sold (MLS) $110,000 EKAR
• 2021-01-12 Listed $110,000 EKAR
• 2012-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records
• 1993-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,499 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.