20 Commodore Ln · Sacramento, CA 95838

$185,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,045 sqft · Manufactured public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1977

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This delightful three-bedroom, two-bathroom home offers a warm and inviting atmosphere within a quaint family park setting. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a spacious and airy feel. A charming front porch welcomes both residents and guests, providing a cozy spot to enjoy the surroundings. The kitchen features a central island, enhancing the functionality of the space while promoting a sense of togetherness. With its well-thought-out design, this home in the heart of a family-friendly park is a perfect blend of comfort and charm, offering a tranquil retreat for its residents. Call for move-in specials. Space rent: $1,060/mo.

Key facts

• Central island
• Open floor plan
• Front porch

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• FRONT PORCH
• FAMILY PARK SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 20 Commodore Ln, Sacramento, CA 95838
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Land lease: listed amount present

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; Attached covered parking (no enclosed garage)
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; 220 volt outlet in kitchen; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Double-wide unit; Skyline make; Entry level at grade
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Skirt: other
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Breakfast area and island
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; Master bedroom approximately 14 x 12; Second bedroom approximately 11 x 12
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathtub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Open living and dining areas; Breakfast nook; Island in kitchen; Living room with additional features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Gas hook-up for laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $186k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $186k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Robla Elementary (urban): math 29% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #923 of 1,400 in CA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,746 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.95%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $117,040
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
56 Village Green Dr #56	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-4%)	14mo	$99,999	$100	70
214 Village Cir	0.12mi	2/2.0	949 (-9%)	10mo	$106,483	$112	67
220 Village Cir #220	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,081 (+3%)	18mo	$162,500	$150	66
216 Village Cir #216	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+10%)	5mo	$82,000	$71	64
197 Village Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,142 (+9%)	22mo	$140,000	$123	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-19,382
• Equity at exit: $27,718

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-17,713
• Equity at exit: $16,073

Cash invested: $52,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95838

• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,953 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$975
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$232 /mo · $2,788/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,626

Max offer price $185,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,475
• Closing costs: $5,577
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3720 Astoria St Unit 8 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,395	$1.47	1d	1	0.79mi
3707 1/2 Marysville Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,395	$1.86	43d	1	0.88mi
4426 Dry Creek Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1408	$2,700	$1.92	1d	1	0.90mi
1138 North Ave Unit A Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	1d	1	1.07mi
4015 May St Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	875	$1,850	$2.11	23d	1	1.20mi
3829 Belden St Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1001	$2,126	$2.12	43d	1	1.22mi
3226 Pilgrim Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,700	$2.08	1d	1	1.31mi
3901 Cypress St Unit 921 Harris Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,950	$2.79	43d	1	1.36mi
3616 Branch St Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,599	$1.88	1d	1	1.45mi
3231 Del Mar Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1380	$2,095	$1.52	16d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,900 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,900 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,900 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,900 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,900 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,900 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,900 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,900 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $185,900 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,900 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,900 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,900 Active 56 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,413
• − Property taxes: −$2,788
• − Insurance: −$930
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,875
• − Management: −$1,875
• − Depreciation: −$5,408
• Taxable income: $146
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$35
• After-tax cash flow: $3,062/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Robla Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0633240
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,481
• Composite: 31.64/100
• National rank: #11126
• State rank: #923 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 40,677
• Household income: $68,349
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1834.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 37% White 21% Asian 18% Two or more races 15% Black 13% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Subsaharan African 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -391.80%
• Current HPI: 415.1804
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.74%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2018): $124 · -19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.