13039 Raintree Cir · Tuscaloosa, AL 35456

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 1997 2.82 ac lot $87/sqft · 24% below area Est $229k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 13039 Raintree Circle, set on 2.82 +/- peaceful acres surrounded by beautiful open land. A paved driveway leads you to the property, manicured by mature trees and open spaces. Inside, the living room features a charming shiplap accent wall and vinyl flooring flows through the main areas. The spacious kitchen offers plenty of counter space, ready for your personal touch. The home has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms among it's 1,610 sq ft. Enjoy the serenity of country living with plenty of room to relax and unwind—yet remain just minutes from the convenience of town amenities. Don't miss this wonderful opportunity, priced at $175,000! Call today to schedule your showing!

Key facts

• Open spaces
• Vinyl flooring
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• SHIPLAP ACCENT WALL
• VINYL FLOORING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• MATURE TREES
• OPEN SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.4% in Tuscaloosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in AL, #2,909 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $175k implies a 558% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.53%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,395
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -23.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11193 Monticello Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,758 (-13%)	13mo	$235,000	$134	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-39,113
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-47,736
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35456

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,615

Max offer price $150,423

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2450 Bear Creek Rd E Duncanville, AL	3.0	2.0	1591	$1,400	$0.88	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Welcome to 13039 Raintree Circle, set on 2.82 +/- peaceful acres surrounded by beautiful open land. A paved driveway leads you to the property, manicured by mature trees and open spaces. Inside, the living room features a charming shiplap accent wall and vinyl flooring flows through the main areas. The spacious kitchen offers plenty of counter space, ready for your personal touch. The home has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms among it's 1,610 sq ft. Enjoy the serenity of country living with plenty of room to relax and unwind—yet remain just minutes from the convenience of town amenities. Don't miss this wonderful opportunity, priced at $175,000! Call today to schedule your showing!

2. 2026-03-30
   listed $175,000 Active 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Welcome to 13039 Raintree Circle, set on 2.82 +/- peaceful acres surrounded by beautiful open land. A paved driveway leads you to the property, manicured by mature trees and open spaces. Inside, the living room features a charming shiplap accent wall and vinyl flooring flows through the main areas. The spacious kitchen offers plenty of counter space, ready for your personal touch. The home has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms among it's 1,610 sq ft. Enjoy the serenity of country living with plenty of room to relax and unwind—yet remain just minutes from the convenience of town amenities. Don't miss this wonderful opportunity, priced at $175,000! Call today to schedule your showing!

3. 2026-03-03
   status Active
4. 2026-01-23
   status Pending
5. 2025-10-30
   status Active
6. 2025-09-09
   status Pending
7. 2025-08-25
   status Active
8. 2025-08-19
   status Pending
9. 2025-08-13
   listed $175,000 Active
10. 2024-05-23
    soldstatus $26,600 Closed
11. 2024-04-19
    status Pending
12. 2024-04-17
    listed $19,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$1,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$5,079
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,219
• After-tax cash flow: $-819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Tuscaloosa

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2909

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 134,228
• Population (ZIP): 4,015

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 19% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 10% Serbian 8%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.62%
• Current HPI: 172.9709
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+779.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — WAMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $175,000 WAMLS
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — WAMLS
• 2026-01-23 Pending — WAMLS
• 2025-10-30 Relisted — WAMLS
• 2025-09-09 Pending — WAMLS
• 2025-08-25 Relisted — WAMLS
• 2025-08-19 Pending — WAMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed $175,000 WAMLS
• 2024-05-23 Sold (MLS) $26,600 WAMLS
• 2024-04-19 Pending — WAMLS
• 2024-04-17 Listed $19,900 WAMLS

Property tax history

-13.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $38 · -92.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.