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4121 Lazy Lily Dr
D- Composite 39.07
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +12.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +7.6/30.0
  • Schools +4.9/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.3/5.0
  • Rent growth +3.0/5.0
  • 1% rule +2.5/10.0
  • DSCR +1.7/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$276,735

4121 Lazy Lily Dr · Seguin, TX 78155
4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,331 sqft · SingleFamily · 147 Days on market
Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot 2-car garage $119/sqft · 10% below area Est $308k · 10% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Available for July 2026! The Monroe's new home design is ideal for homeowner's needing space and storage. Offering roomy entertaining areas downstairs with a second-story loft and private owner's suite.

Key facts

  • 4,791 sq ft lot
  • 2 garage spots
  • Community pool

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $277k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (17.3% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (25.4% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $207k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.6% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
  • Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro Int (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 485 students, 40% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1833 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 67d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $206,571 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.75%
Cap rate
4.86%
Cash-on-cash
-5.12%
DSCR
0.77
GRM
11.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$307,724
List price
$276,735
Delta
-10.07%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
4101 Bermuda Ln 0.15mi 4/3.0 2,331 (0%) 1mo $280,025 $120 92
4065 Bermuda Ln 0.20mi 4/3.0 2,331 (0%) 0mo $309,650 $133 90
4150 Bermuda Ln 0.11mi 4/2.5 2,218 (-5%) 5mo $271,723 $123 81
349 Wild Creek Rd 0.13mi 5/3.0 (+1) 2,466 (+6%) 0mo $289,621 $117 79
4064 Bermuda Ln 0.18mi 4/2.5 2,218 (-5%) 4mo $274,123 $124 78
4129 Bermuda Ln 0.14mi 4/3.0 2,079 (-11%) 3mo $285,368 $137 73
4060 Paddock Trl 0.22mi 4/2.5 2,520 (+8%) 3mo $372,230 $148 72
4121 Bermuda Ln 0.14mi 4/3.0 2,601 (+12%) 5mo $329,877 $127 70
4133 Bermuda Ln 0.13mi 4/3.0 2,601 (+12%) 5mo $324,702 $125 70
4142 Bermuda Ln 0.11mi 4/3.0 2,029 (-13%) 5mo $274,390 $135 69
4069 Bermuda Ln 0.19mi 4/3.0 2,029 (-13%) 4mo $268,230 $132 67
336 Pacific Waters 0.68mi 4/2.5 1,987 (-15%) 2mo $213,000 $107 40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-26.1%
Equity multiple
0.12×
Total profit
$-67,810
Equity at exit
$41,262
10-year hold
IRR
-26.3%
Equity multiple
-0.21×
Total profit
$-93,860
Equity at exit
$23,927

Cash invested: $77,486 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
52 active · 22 under contract
Months of supply
14.2 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$333,495 ($152/sqft)
Median days on market
155 d
This list price
15% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-13.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78155

Rents YoY
2.0%
Active inventory
1833
Price-to-rent
11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,066 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,451
Tax est. 1.5%
$346 /mo · $4,151/yr
Insurance
$115
HOA
$50
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$434
Net cashflow
$-331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,484
Max offer price $228,905
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-139 -5% $-235 +0% $-331 +5% $-426 +10% $-522
Rent -10% $-494 -5% $-412 +0% $-331 +5% $-249 +10% $-167
Rate -1.0pp $-191 -0.5pp $-260 base $-331 +0.5pp $-402 +1.0pp $-475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$69,184
Closing costs
$8,302
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 20 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
4134 Wild Bloom Rd Seguin, TX 3.0 2.5 2300 $2,000 $0.87 77d 1 0.06mi
4044 Sun Meadow Ln Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 2601 $2,359 $0.91 139d 1 0.15mi
4153 Bermuda Ln Seguin, TX 4.0 2.0 1937 $1,995 $1.03 93d 1 0.16mi
4089 Lily Glade Ln Seguin, TX 4.0 2.5 2218 $1,750 $0.79 0d 1 0.23mi
4089 Lily Glade Ln Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 2218 $1,850 $0.83 24d 1 0.23mi
3873 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 4.0 2.0 1667 $1,773 $1.06 67d 1 0.60mi
3809 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 4.0 2.5 1874 $1,795 $0.96 24d 1 0.71mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 4.0 2.5 1874 $1,650 $0.88 24d 1 0.72mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 4.0 2.5 1874 $1,825 $0.97 106d 1 0.73mi
249 Free Waters Seguin, TX 4.0 2.0 1667 $1,695 $1.02 56d 1 0.80mi
1035 Timber Elm Seguin, TX 4.0 4.0 2650 $4,500 $1.70 99d 1 1.26mi
160 Cordova Xing Seguin, TX 4.0 2.0 1667 $1,990 $1.19 0d 1 1.41mi
2712 La Mundial St Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 2304 $1,821 $0.79 106d 1 1.46mi
2712 La Mundial St Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 2304 $1,755 $0.76 110d 1 1.46mi
2721 La Mundial St Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 1910 $1,596 $0.84 24d 1 1.47mi
2721 La Mundial St Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 1910 $1,530 $0.80 10d 1 1.47mi
227 Cordova Xing Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 2304 $2,149 $0.93 0d 1 1.48mi
2704 La Mundial St Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1910 $1,516 $0.79 79d 1 1.48mi
2720 Coral Vly Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 1910 $2,095 $1.10 0d 1 1.49mi
2720 Coral Vly Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 1910 $2,195 $1.15 84d 1 1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Subdivision: Lily Springs
Financial info
Association transfer fee
HOA & community
Mandatory HOAQuarterly HOA feeCommunity poolPark/playground

Exterior

Parking
2-car garage
Utilities
Water system (Seguin)Sewer system (Seguin)Electric service provided by GVECGarbage service by Seguin
Home design
New construction by PulteStone and siding exteriorNorth and East front exposureLevel lotAccessible/adaptive homeBathroom and bedroom on first floor
Construction
Slab foundationComposition roof
Exterior features
Covered patioPrivacy fenceDouble pane windowsStreet paved with curbs, sidewalks and streetlights

Interior

Kitchen
Stove/RangeDishwasher
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom on upper level with walk-in closet (19 x 15)Bedroom 2 (13 x 11)Bedroom 3 (13 x 11)Bedroom 4 (11 x 10)
Flooring
CarpetingVinyl flooring
Bathrooms
3 full bathroomsPrimary bathroom with shower only and single vanity (9 x 9)
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
Interior features
Open floor plan1 living areaEat-in kitchen with islandWalk-in pantryGame roomUtility room insideSecondary bedroom on lower levelCable TV availableHigh-speed internetSolid countertopsVent fanSmoke alarmDisposalIce maker connection
Laundry & utility
Washer connectionDryer connection

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-24
    days on market $276,735 Active 147 DOM
  2. 2026-09-23
    days on market $276,735 Active 146 DOM
  3. 2026-09-22
    days on market $276,735 Active 145 DOM
  4. 2026-09-21
    days on market $276,735 Active 144 DOM
  5. 2026-09-20
    days on market $276,735 Active 143 DOM
  6. 2026-09-19
    days on market $276,735 Active 142 DOM
  7. 2026-09-18
    days on market $276,735 Active 141 DOM
  8. 2026-09-17
    days on market $276,735 Active 140 DOM
  9. 2026-09-16
    days on market $276,735 Active 139 DOM
  10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $276,735 Active 138 DOM
  11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $276,735 Active 137 DOM
  12. 2026-09-13
    statusdays on market $276,735 Active 136 DOM
  13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $276,735 Price Change 135 DOM
  14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $276,735 Price Change 134 DOM
  15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $276,735 Price Change 128 DOM
  16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $276,735 Price Change 127 DOM
  17. 2026-09-03
    pricestatusdays on market $276,735 Price Change 126 DOM
  18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $276,435 Active 123 DOM
  19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $276,435 Active 122 DOM
  20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $276,435 Active 121 DOM
  21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $276,435 Active 120 DOM
  22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $276,435 Active 119 DOM
  23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $276,435 Active 117 DOM
  24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $276,435 Active 116 DOM
  25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $276,435 Active 115 DOM
  26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $276,435 Active 114 DOM
  27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $276,435 Active 113 DOM
  28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $276,435 Active 112 DOM
  29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $276,435 Active 111 DOM
  30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $276,435 Active 110 DOM
  31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $276,435 Active 109 DOM
  32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $276,435 Active 108 DOM
  33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $276,435 Active 107 DOM
  34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $276,435 Active 106 DOM
  35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $276,435 Active 105 DOM
  36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $276,435 Active 104 DOM
  37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $276,435 Active 103 DOM
  38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $276,435 Active 102 DOM
  39. 2026-08-09
    statusdays on market $276,435 Active 101 DOM
  40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $276,435 Price Change 100 DOM
  41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $276,435 Price Change 98 DOM
  42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $276,435 Price Change 97 DOM
  43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $276,435 Price Change 96 DOM
  44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $276,435 Price Change 95 DOM
  45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $276,435 Price Change 92 DOM
  46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $276,435 Price Change 91 DOM
  47. 2026-07-30
    pricestatusdays on market $276,435 Price Change 90 DOM
  48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $276,535 Active 89 DOM
  49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $276,535 Active 87 DOM
  50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $276,535 Active 85 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$24,789
− Mortgage interest
−$15,501
− Property taxes
−$4,151
− Insurance
−$1,384
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,983
− Management
−$1,983
− HOA
−$600
− Depreciation
−$8,050
Taxable loss
−$8,864
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,127
After-tax cash flow
$-1,839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good exterior, hardwood floors, and good interior walls/paint. The home is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value. Consider painting the exterior and interior walls, landscaping improvements, upgrading the kitchen appliances, adding a smart home system, and upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
  • Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers
  • Both Adding a smart home system — Enhances convenience and adds value
  • Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Enhances aesthetics and adds value
F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Navarro El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Navarro J H C- TX #378/1,662 Nat'l #3,736/14,009 High Navarro H S D+ TX #447/1,632 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Navarro ISD
NCES district ID
4832160
Math proficiency
48% ▼ -19.00%
Reading proficiency
50% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income
$66,008
Composite
43.49/100
National rank
#2996
State rank
#166 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Seguin

Score
66/100
State rank
#592
US rank
#11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Seguin, TX
County
Guadalupe County · 196,854 people
City population
55,600
Metro
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP)
55,600
Household income
$71,039
Rent vs Own
27.5% rent · 72.5% own
Severe rent burden
17% of renters

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
196,854 people
By 2030
220,210 · +11.9%
By 2040
268,004 · +36.1%
By 2050
316,333 · +60.7%
By 2075
434,747 · +120.8%
By 2100
520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 41%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born
8% · Canada
Languages at home
74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

2024 margin
Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
2008→2024 swing
+1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+0.0% since first listed
4 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-22 Relisted Zillow
  • 2026-05-06 Delisted Zillow
  • 2026-04-21 Listed $276,535 LERA
  • 2026-04-17 Listed $276,535 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…