4121 Lazy Lily Dr · Seguin, TX 78155

$276,535

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,331 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $119/sqft · 10% below area Est $308k · 10% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Available for July 2026! The Monroe's new home design is ideal for homeowner's needing space and storage. Offering roomy entertaining areas downstairs with a second-story loft and private owner's suite.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Lily Springs
• Financial info: Association transfer fee
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly HOA fee; Community pool; Park/playground

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Water system (Seguin); Sewer system (Seguin); Electric service provided by GVEC; Garbage service by Seguin
• Home design: New construction by Pulte; Stone and siding exterior; North and East front exposure; Level lot; Accessible/adaptive home; Bathroom and bedroom on first floor
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Privacy fence; Double pane windows; Street paved with curbs, sidewalks and streetlights

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on upper level with walk-in closet (19 x 15); Bedroom 2 (13 x 11); Bedroom 3 (13 x 11); Bedroom 4 (11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpeting; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with shower only and single vanity (9 x 9)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; 1 living area; Eat-in kitchen with island; Walk-in pantry; Game room; Utility room inside; Secondary bedroom on lower level; Cable TV available; High-speed internet; Solid countertops; Vent fan; Smoke alarm; Disposal; Ice maker connection
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $277k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1342 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,208 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.04%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,971
• List price: $276,535
• Delta: -10.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4052 Bermuda Ln	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,331 (0%)	4mo	$304,625	$131	88
4150 Bermuda Ln	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,218 (-5%)	2mo	$271,723	$123	84
4055 Paddock Trl	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,411 (+3%)	4mo	$374,255	$155	82
4064 Bermuda Ln	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,218 (-5%)	1mo	$274,123	$124	80
4121 Lily Glade Ln	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,218 (-5%)	3mo	$271,663	$122	78
4025 Lily Glade Ln	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,218 (-5%)	4mo	$276,313	$125	74
4121 Bermuda Ln	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,601 (+12%)	1mo	$329,877	$127	73
4133 Bermuda Ln	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,601 (+12%)	2mo	$324,702	$125	73
4142 Bermuda Ln	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,029 (-13%)	2mo	$274,390	$135	72
4069 Bermuda Ln	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,029 (-13%)	0mo	$268,230	$132	69
4059 Paddock Trl	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,601 (+12%)	3mo	$319,202	$123	69
4057 Bermuda Ln	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,029 (-13%)	2mo	$284,100	$140	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-63,425
• Equity at exit: $41,232

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-84,660
• Equity at exit: $23,910

Cash invested: $77,430 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1342
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,152 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,450
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$346 /mo · $4,148/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,482

Max offer price $238,778

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,134
• Closing costs: $8,296
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4134 Wild Bloom Rd Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	2300	$2,000	$0.87	1d	1	0.06mi
4044 Sun Meadow Ln Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2601	$2,359	$0.91	43d	1	0.15mi
4153 Bermuda Ln Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1937	$1,995	$1.03	1d	1	0.16mi
3873 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,853	$1.11	1d	1	0.60mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,825	$0.97	11d	1	0.73mi
249 Free Waters Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	1d	1	0.80mi
1035 Timber Elm Seguin, TX	4.0	4.0	2650	$4,500	$1.70	3d	1	1.26mi
2712 La Mundial St Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2304	$1,755	$0.76	15d	1	1.46mi
2712 La Mundial St Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2304	$1,821	$0.79	11d	1	1.46mi
227 Cordova Xing Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2304	$2,200	$0.95	1d	1	1.48mi
2704 La Mundial St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1910	$1,666	$0.87	1d	1	1.48mi
2720 Coral Vly Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	1910	$2,195	$1.15	1d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $276,535 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $276,535 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $276,535 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $276,535 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $276,535 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $276,535 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $276,535 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $276,535 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $276,535 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $276,535 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $276,535 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $276,535 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $276,535 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $276,535 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    listed $276,535 New 202-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,490
• − Property taxes: −$4,148
• − Insurance: −$1,383
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,066
• − Management: −$2,066
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,045
• Taxable loss: −$7,973
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,913
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good exterior, hardwood floors, and good interior walls/paint. The home is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value. Consider painting the exterior and interior walls, landscaping improvements, upgrading the kitchen appliances, adding a smart home system, and upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers
• Both Adding a smart home system — Enhances convenience and adds value
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Enhances aesthetics and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Enhances aesthetics and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-21 Listed $276,535 LERA
• 2026-04-17 Listed $276,535 Zillow