2507 Spruce Hill Rd · Rosenberg, TX 77417

$240,582

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,793 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 $134/sqft · at area comps Est $243k · at est. $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

KB HOME UNDER CONSTRUCTION – Welcome to 2507 Spruce Hill Rd. in the desirable Saddlebrook Preserve community, zoned to Lamar ISD! This impressive one-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and an attached 2-car garage. The thoughtfully designed layout features engineered wood flooring throughout the main living areas and a stylish kitchen equipped with stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, Woodmont cabinetry, granite countertops, and a convenient breakfast bar—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite includes a dual-sink vanity, while the secondary bath offers a vanity with knee space for added functionality. Additional highlights include 2" faux wood blinds, SmartKey entry door hardware, front gutters, and a rear patio slab—ideal for relaxing or hosting outdoors. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Dual-sink vanity
• Woodmont cabinetry
• Granite countertops

Tags

• ENGINEERED WOOD FLOORING
• WOODMONT CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• DUAL-SINK VANITY
• KNEE SPACE VANITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $241k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-260 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); George J H (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,173 students, 81% FRL); B F Terry H S (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,739 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,066 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.63%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,455
• List price: $240,582
• Delta: -1.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7211 Saddle Crest Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	2,004 (+12%)	1mo	$263,028	$131	73
7214 Brooklea Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,549 (-14%)	1mo	$223,882	$145	68
1811 Beasley West End Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,991 (+11%)	7mo	$378,500	$190	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $27,516
• Equity at exit: $124,140

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $103,650
• Equity at exit: $204,784

Cash invested: $67,363 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,871 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$301 /mo · $3,609/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,200

Max offer price $202,990

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-94	-5% $-177	+0% $-260	+5% $-343	+10% $-426
Rent	-10% $-408	-5% $-334	+0% $-260	+5% $-186	+10% $-112
Rate	-1.0pp $-139	-0.5pp $-199	base $-260	+0.5pp $-322	+1.0pp $-386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,146
• Closing costs: $7,217
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   KB HOME UNDER CONSTRUCTION – Welcome to 2507 Spruce Hill Rd. in the desirable Saddlebrook Preserve community, zoned to Lamar ISD! This impressive one-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and an attached 2-car garage. The thoughtfully designed layout features engineered wood flooring throughout the main living areas and a stylish kitchen equipped with stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, Woodmont cabinetry, granite countertops, and a convenient breakfast bar—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite includes a dual-sink vanity, while the secondary bath offers a vanity with knee space for added functionality. Additional highlights include 2" faux wood blinds, SmartKey entry door hardware, front gutters, and a rear patio slab—ideal for relaxing or hosting outdoors. Schedule your private showing today!

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $240,582 Active 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   KB HOME UNDER CONSTRUCTION – Welcome to 2507 Spruce Hill Rd. in the desirable Saddlebrook Preserve community, zoned to Lamar ISD! This impressive one-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and an attached 2-car garage. The thoughtfully designed layout features engineered wood flooring throughout the main living areas and a stylish kitchen equipped with stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, Woodmont cabinetry, granite countertops, and a convenient breakfast bar—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite includes a dual-sink vanity, while the secondary bath offers a vanity with knee space for added functionality. Additional highlights include 2" faux wood blinds, SmartKey entry door hardware, front gutters, and a rear patio slab—ideal for relaxing or hosting outdoors. Schedule your private showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,476
• − Property taxes: −$3,609
• − Insurance: −$1,203
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,796
• − Management: −$1,796
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$6,999
• Taxable loss: −$7,330
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,759
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $240,582 HARMLS