4053 Lodge Dr · Wade, NC 28395

$184,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,577 sqft · Manufactured · 150 Days on market

Built 2025 0.26 ac lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Brand New Manufactured Home on a permanent brick foundation. Sellers offering $7,500 Use As You Choose Allowance. Home has vinyl flooring throughout. Three spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms. The kitchen is open to the living room and has plenty of storage space and a large walk-in pantry. Home also comes with a builders warranty.

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Manufactured home
• Builders warranty

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• PERMANENT BRICK FOUNDATION
• VINYL FLOORING
• OPEN KITCHEN
• LARGE WALK-IN PANTRY
• BUILDERS WARRANTY

🏗️ New construction. The $184,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $200,279.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($909/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.8% in Wade — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#650 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, crime F, amenities F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mac Williams Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 1,151 students, 58% FRL); Cape Fear High (math 75% / reading 47%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,529 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 53% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (9.9% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (9.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $162,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.62%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,279
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4051 Lodge Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,577 (0%)	3mo	$185,000	$117	97
4057 Lodge Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,577 (0%)	3mo	$185,000	$117	97
4055 Lodge Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,577 (0%)	3mo	$185,000	$117	96
3911 Mckethan St	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (-5%)	4mo	$192,999	$129	69
3912 Mckethan (lot 19) St	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-8%)	14mo	$185,000	$127	56
3916 Mckethan (lot 20) St	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-8%)	13mo	$185,000	$127	56
3905 Mckethan St	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,493 (-5%)	22mo	$187,000	$125	55
3934 Mckethan (lot 5) St	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-8%)	12mo	$185,000	$127	52
3942 Mckethan (lot 3) St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-8%)	12mo	$185,000	$127	51
7572 Dunn Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-8%)	7mo	$250,000	$172	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $112,679
• Equity at exit: $179,100

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $327,749
• Equity at exit: $384,831

Cash invested: $56,078 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28395

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,848 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,050
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,004/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,752

Max offer price $200,279

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $214	-5% $145	+0% $76	+5% $7	+10% $-63
Rent	-10% $-70	-5% $3	+0% $76	+5% $149	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $127	base $76	+0.5pp $24	+1.0pp $-29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,070
• Closing costs: $6,008
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,999 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,999 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,999 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,999 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $184,999 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,999 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $184,999 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,999 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 338-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    price $184,999 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $185,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-04-20
    status Pending
14. 2026-01-19
    price $185,000
15. 2026-01-08
    price $188,000
16. 2025-12-17
    price $189,900
17. 2025-12-05
    listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,219
• − Property taxes: −$3,004
• − Insurance: −$1,001
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,774
• − Management: −$1,774
• − Depreciation: −$5,826
• Taxable loss: −$2,424
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$582
• After-tax cash flow: $1,490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Wade

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #650
• US rank: #23543

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wade, NC
• Population (ZIP): 2,524

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 9% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.91%
• Current HPI: 336.2104
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-5.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $185,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $188,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $189,900 LPRMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $195,000 LPRMLS