5438 Antigua Dr · Zephyrhills West, FL 33541

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1984 5,914 sqft lot Est $145k · 17% under $66/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCED! OAKS ROYAL 3! Extra large, beautifully landscaped corner lot, next to clubhouse. Florida room, utility shed w/ storage, and double carport. New laminate floors in living room. Great to live year round or seasonally! PARTIALLY FURNISHED.

Key facts

• Shed for storage
• Clubhouse and pool
• Workshop

Tags

• CLUBHOUSE AND POOL
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• LARGE SCREENED PORCH
• SHED FOR STORAGE
• WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Number of lots: 1; Total acreage: under 1/4 acre; Lot size approximately 0.14 acres
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Ann Parks) — required approval for buyers; Annual association fee $800 (includes common area taxes, pool, recreational facilities); Monthly equivalent $66.67; Association recreation owned; Clubhouse; Pool; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Sidewalks and street lights; Senior community; Pets allowed (max 20 lbs); Part-time management

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Underground utilities; BB/HS Internet available; Cable available; Phone available; Fire hydrant nearby
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Attached property; One level; Faces west
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation; Completed condition
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Front porch; Rear porch; Screened porch; Rain gutters; Shade shutters; Sliding doors; Shed(s); Corner lot; Sidewalks; Paved road; Trees/landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Blinds; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $719 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 7.8% in Zephyrhills West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $120k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.70%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,152
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36037 Coleus Ave	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (0%)	11mo	$136,500	$158	75
36122 Aster Ave	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	816 (-6%)	8mo	$115,000	$141	72
36905 Kay Ave	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (0%)	4mo	$148,500	$172	61
5341 Powhattan St	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+11%)	3mo	$170,000	$177	59
36413 Teakwood Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	812 (-6%)	4mo	$159,000	$196	59
35921 Hermoso Ln	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (0%)	5mo	$145,000	$168	58
5619 Dakota St	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+11%)	3mo	$175,000	$182	58
4912 Dorado St	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	888 (+3%)	2mo	$144,000	$162	57
5722 Pawnne St	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	869 (+1%)	4mo	$48,500	$56	56
36839 Kimela Ave	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+11%)	6mo	$177,500	$185	41
5706 Benton St	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+11%)	10mo	$146,000	$152	37
36941 Grace Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	948 (+10%)	8mo	$156,000	$165	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $20,769
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $55,435
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,910 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $544/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$66
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $719

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,000

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35940 Inspiration Dr Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$1,988	$1.92	2d	21	0.43mi
5914 Willow Ridge Dr #101 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	987	$1,500	$1.52	24d	1	0.44mi
36321 Stonewood Ln #103 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	987	$1,525	$1.55	24d	1	0.47mi
36009 Deer Creek Dr #104 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,450	$1.41	24d	1	0.53mi
36801 Camelia Ct Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	24d	1	0.54mi
36015 Deer Creek Dr #202 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,450	$1.37	24d	1	0.55mi
5168 Crooked Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,645	$2.74	22d	1	0.77mi
5521 Barbara St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	24d	1	1.04mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,999	$2.34	2d	142	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $66 · $792/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $119,900 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $124,900 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-04-27
    price $129,900
15. 2026-03-11
    listed $134,900 Active
16. 2006-07-13
    soldstatus $71,000 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! OAKS ROYAL 3! Extra large, beautifully landscaped corner lot, next to clubhouse. Florida room, utility shed w/ storage, and double carport. New laminate floors in living room. Great to live year round or seasonally! PARTIALLY FURNISHED.

17. 2006-07-13
    soldstatus $71,000

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! OAKS ROYAL 3! Extra large, beautifully landscaped corner lot, next to clubhouse. Florida room, utility shed w/ storage, and double carport. New laminate floors in living room. Great to live year round or seasonally! PARTIALLY FURNISHED.

18. 2006-02-16
    listed $76,500 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! OAKS ROYAL 3! Extra large, beautifully landscaped corner lot, next to clubhouse. Florida room, utility shed w/ storage, and double carport. New laminate floors in living room. Great to live year round or seasonally! PARTIALLY FURNISHED.

19. 2002-03-01
    soldstatus $37,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $544 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $995 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$451/yr (+$38/mo · 82.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$544
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,834
• − Management: −$1,834
• − HOA: −$792
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $7,115
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,707
• After-tax cash flow: $6,920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills West

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #772
• US rank: #17403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+246.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-13 Sold (MLS) $71,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-16 Listed $76,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $544 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.