115 Winners Cir · Calera, AL 35040

$179,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,238 sqft · Townhouse public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2006 3,223 sqft lot $145/sqft · at area comps Est $182k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this 2-bedroom, 2-bath townhome in Calera offering a spacious and functional layout. The main living area features vaulted ceilings, a gas fireplace, and abundant natural light, creating an inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen provides ample cabinet space and opens to a dining area with a bright breakfast nook. The primary suite includes a tray ceiling, private bath with double vanities, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the fully fenced backyard with patio area, perfect for outdoor relaxation or pets. Conveniently located just minutes from I-65, shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home offers both comfort and convenience.

Key facts

• Gas fireplace
• Dining area
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• GAS FIREPLACE
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $653 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.5% in Calera — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#325 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 374 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.57%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,926
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -1.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Winners Cir	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,238 (0%)	10mo	$172,000	$139	90
127 Winners Cir	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,238 (0%)	21mo	$180,000	$145	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $13,881
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $71,565
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35040

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,187 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $670/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $653

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,360

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $755	-5% $704	+0% $653	+5% $603	+10% $552
Rent	-10% $481	-5% $567	+0% $653	+5% $740	+10% $826
Rate	-1.0pp $744	-0.5pp $699	base $653	+0.5pp $607	+1.0pp $559

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
148 Enclave Ave Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1340	$4,150	$3.10	2d	1	0.94mi
100 Enclave Ave Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,585	$1.27	20d	1	1.07mi
2150 20th St #2 Calera, AL	2.0	1.0	880	$695	$0.79	4d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,900 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $179,900 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Welcome home to this 2-bedroom, 2-bath townhome in Calera offering a spacious and functional layout. The main living area features vaulted ceilings, a gas fireplace, and abundant natural light, creating an inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen provides ample cabinet space and opens to a dining area with a bright breakfast nook. The primary suite includes a tray ceiling, private bath with double vanities, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the fully fenced backyard with patio area, perfect for outdoor relaxation or pets. Conveniently located just minutes from I-65, shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home offers both comfort and convenience.

17. 2026-04-13
    listed $183,900 Active 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Welcome home to this 2-bedroom, 2-bath townhome in Calera offering a spacious and functional layout. The main living area features vaulted ceilings, a gas fireplace, and abundant natural light, creating an inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen provides ample cabinet space and opens to a dining area with a bright breakfast nook. The primary suite includes a tray ceiling, private bath with double vanities, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the fully fenced backyard with patio area, perfect for outdoor relaxation or pets. Conveniently located just minutes from I-65, shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home offers both comfort and convenience.

18. 2024-11-08
    soldstatus $175,000
19. 2023-08-31
    soldstatus $170,000 Sold 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    COMING SOON! This 2 bed 2 bath townhome conveniently located in south Calera. The features in this home include, large living room, open kitchen and dinning area, bay window overlooking the back yard that is inclosed with a privacy fence, and so much more. This home is located in an area that qualifies for USDA financing. If this sounds like the home you have been searching for, call today to schedule your showing! Property will be active on or before 7/13/2023

20. 2023-08-31
    soldstatus $170,000

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    COMING SOON! This 2 bed 2 bath townhome conveniently located in south Calera. The features in this home include, large living room, open kitchen and dinning area, bay window overlooking the back yard that is inclosed with a privacy fence, and so much more. This home is located in an area that qualifies for USDA financing. If this sounds like the home you have been searching for, call today to schedule your showing! Property will be active on or before 7/13/2023

21. 2023-07-22
    historical Contingent 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    COMING SOON! This 2 bed 2 bath townhome conveniently located in south Calera. The features in this home include, large living room, open kitchen and dinning area, bay window overlooking the back yard that is inclosed with a privacy fence, and so much more. This home is located in an area that qualifies for USDA financing. If this sounds like the home you have been searching for, call today to schedule your showing! Property will be active on or before 7/13/2023

22. 2023-07-10
    listed $169,900 Active 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    COMING SOON! This 2 bed 2 bath townhome conveniently located in south Calera. The features in this home include, large living room, open kitchen and dinning area, bay window overlooking the back yard that is inclosed with a privacy fence, and so much more. This home is located in an area that qualifies for USDA financing. If this sounds like the home you have been searching for, call today to schedule your showing! Property will be active on or before 7/13/2023

23. 2023-06-29
    historical $169,900 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    COMING SOON! This 2 bed 2 bath townhome conveniently located in south Calera. The features in this home include, large living room, open kitchen and dinning area, bay window overlooking the back yard that is inclosed with a privacy fence, and so much more. This home is located in an area that qualifies for USDA financing. If this sounds like the home you have been searching for, call today to schedule your showing! Property will be active on or before 7/13/2023

24. 2020-12-21
    soldstatus $123,000
25. 2020-12-18
    soldstatus $123,000 Sold
26. 2020-12-14
    status Pending
27. 2020-10-27
    historical Contingent
28. 2020-10-25
    listed $119,900 Active
29. 2019-02-21
    soldstatus $97,000
30. 2019-02-19
    soldstatus $97,000 Sold
31. 2019-01-05
    historical Contingent
32. 2018-12-28
    status Active
33. 2018-12-11
    historical Contingent
34. 2018-11-28
    listed $95,000 Active
35. 2013-12-10
    soldstatus $72,280
36. 2013-09-16
    listed $70,040

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $670 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $738 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$68/yr (+$6/mo · 10.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$670
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,099
• − Management: −$2,099
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $5,164
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,239
• After-tax cash flow: $6,602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Calera

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #19917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calera, AL
• County: Shelby County · 188,970 people
• City population: 19,304
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 19,304
• Household income: $84,554
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 388.0

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.58%
• Current HPI: 220.2843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+156.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $179,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $183,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-31 Sold (MLS) $170,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-07-22 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-07-10 Listed $169,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-06-29 Coming Soon $169,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $123,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-18 Sold (MLS) $123,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-12-14 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-10-27 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-10-25 Listed $119,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records
• 2019-02-19 Sold (MLS) $97,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-01-05 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-12-28 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-12-11 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-11-28 Listed $95,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2013-12-10 Sold (MLS) $72,280 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2013-09-16 Listed $70,040 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $670 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.