144 Twins Trl · Hutto, TX 78634

$278,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · Other · 30 Days on market

Built 2026 4,464 sqft lot $199/sqft · 14% below area Est $324k · 14% under $68/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Kitson - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion August 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Winfield Park HOA), $68 monthly covering common area maintenance; Community playground and sport court(s)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered parking spaces (2 total)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water connected; Public sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story; New construction by Lennar; Faces northwest; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built by builder (new construction); Brick and cement siding with HardiPlank-type siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Front porch; Back yard; Front yard; Interior lot; Privacy wood fencing; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Open floor plan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Hutto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in TX, #2,794 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Hutto ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #438 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hutto El (math 33% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 744 students, 36% FRL); Hutto H S (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,010 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 1039 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $199,643 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.97%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,397
• List price: $278,999
• Delta: -13.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-63,424
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-93,945
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78634

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 1039
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,996 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,475/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,241

Max offer price $244,893

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-35	-5% $-114	+0% $-193	+5% $-272	+10% $-351
Rent	-10% $-351	-5% $-272	+0% $-193	+5% $-114	+10% $-35
Rate	-1.0pp $-53	-0.5pp $-122	base $-193	+0.5pp $-265	+1.0pp $-339

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
202 Quail Cir Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,700	$1.19	23d	1	0.60mi
1015 Bluejack Way Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$2,475	$1.40	6d	1	0.62mi
741 Carol Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,150	$1.18	45d	1	0.63mi
201 Quail Cir Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,950	$1.37	45d	1	0.63mi
741 Carol Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,150	$1.18	19d	1	0.63mi
1001 Bluejack Way Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$2,045	$1.26	6d	1	0.63mi
117 Colthorpe Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,950	$1.12	46d	1	0.96mi
401 County Road 199 Hutto, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1013	$2,443	$2.41	0d	65	1.10mi
132 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$4,800	$3.75	19d	1	1.18mi
112 Creekside Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1352	$1,875	$1.39	19d	1	1.20mi
1051 N Farm to Market 1660 Unit 03-1102 Hutto, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,449	$1.32	25d	1	1.23mi
108 Greenspire Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1853	$2,100	$1.13	45d	1	1.31mi
208 Skyfire ST Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,995	$1.25	45d	1	1.31mi
208 Skyfire ST Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,995	$1.25	25d	1	1.31mi
1051 N Farm to Market 1660 Unit B1 Hutto, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,295	$1.18	45d	1	1.33mi
1051 N Farm to Market 1660 Unit 116 Hutto, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,375	$1.25	45d	1	1.33mi
1051 FM 1660 Hutto, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	19d	1	1.33mi
318 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,900	$1.33	6d	1	1.34mi
126 Fairmeadow Downs Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1607	$1,995	$1.24	45d	1	1.39mi
203 E Pecan St Unit B Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1688	$1,900	$1.13	16d	1	1.40mi
318 Durango Downs Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,850	$1.41	45d	1	1.41mi
235 Sweetwater Creek Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,850	$1.26	19d	1	1.42mi
124 Carrington St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1742	$1,965	$1.13	6d	1	1.43mi
607 Water Way Ave Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,045	$1.12	19d	1	1.44mi
231 Sweetwater Creek Ln Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1839	$2,290	$1.25	19d	1	1.45mi
207 Coventry Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$1,950	$1.20	45d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $278,999 Pending 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $278,999 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $283,999 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $283,999 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $283,999 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $283,999 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $283,999 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $283,999 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $283,999 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-05-12
    price $287,999 628-char remark
11. 2026-05-11
    listed $295,999 Active 628-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,475 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,106 · $425/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,631/yr (+$303/mo · 246.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$1,475
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,917
• − Management: −$1,917
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$7,306
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,754
• After-tax cash flow: $-563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hutto ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $72,961
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5501
• State rank: #438 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hutto

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #2794

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 46,413
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,413
• Household income: $114,426
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 410.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 18% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.56%
• Current HPI: 194.2221
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.41%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $278,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $283,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $286,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $287,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $295,999 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

-9.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,475 · -9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.