Morris Plan · Hinesville, GA 31313

$244,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Good condition $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This perfectly appointed patio style home will definitely catch your attention! You're welcomed into The Morris via a gorgeous two story foyer. Continue down a short corridor into the family room, complete with an optional electric fireplace, ideal to cozy up to on even the coldest winter nights! The corner kitchen overlooks the family room and features stainless steel appliances and an attractive counter/cabinet combination. Upstairs, the master bedroom has a large walk-in closet and private en-suite with a separate shower and garden tub. The remaining bedrooms share a hall bath, with the laundry room rounding out the upstairs space.

Key facts

• Corner kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• Private en-suite

Tags

• TWO STORY FOYER
• OPTIONAL ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• CORNER KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $244,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $273,040.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-381 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#51 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, commute D+, crime F.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 911 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,233 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.02%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,040
• List price: $244,900
• Delta: -10.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
221 Joann Lewis Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,477 (-12%)	4mo	$268,900	$182	68
301 Joann Lewis Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (-6%)	19mo	$280,000	$179	61
258 Whipple Ave	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (+3%)	1mo	$290,000	$169	59
25 Anzio Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,775 (+6%)	18mo	$240,000	$135	50
125 Whipple Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,544 (-8%)	12mo	$258,000	$167	47
27 Wythe St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,475 (-12%)	15mo	$284,900	$193	32
826 Marne Blvd	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,423 (-15%)	21mo	$264,000	$186	24
14 Cohen Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,423 (-15%)	21mo	$259,900	$183	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-63,181
• Equity at exit: $40,711

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-63,265
• Equity at exit: $23,608

Cash invested: $76,451 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.9 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $267,650 ($159/sqft)
• Median days on market: 112 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31313

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 911
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,102 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,096/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,585

Max offer price $217,867

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-193	-5% $-287	+0% $-381	+5% $-476	+10% $-570
Rent	-10% $-547	-5% $-464	+0% $-381	+5% $-298	+10% $-215
Rate	-1.0pp $-244	-0.5pp $-312	base $-381	+0.5pp $-452	+1.0pp $-524

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,260
• Closing costs: $8,191
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
222 Courage Way Hinesville, GA	4.0	3.0	1984	$1,995	$1.01	5d	1	0.11mi
326 Joann Lewis Ln Hinesville, GA	4.0	3.0	1793	$2,150	$1.20	139d	1	0.11mi
247 Joann Lewis Ln Hinesville, GA	4.0	3.0	1984	$2,100	$1.06	5d	1	0.13mi
195 Courage Way Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,200	$1.26	139d	1	0.14mi
1110 Marne Blvd Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1380	$2,000	$1.45	5d	1	0.23mi
241 Whipple Ave Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1339	$2,000	$1.49	3d	1	0.59mi
232 Gambrell Rd Hinesville, GA	4.0	3.0	2104	$2,050	$0.97	1d	1	0.71mi
34 Wythe St Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1978	$2,200	$1.11	139d	1	0.73mi
148 Gambrell Rd Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1962	$2,170	$1.11	5d	1	0.80mi
248 Bender St Hinesville, GA	3.0	3.0	1633	$2,100	$1.29	5d	1	0.89mi
403 Valdez Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1810	$2,000	$1.10	139d	1	0.97mi
409 Valdez Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1587	$1,700	$1.07	5d	1	0.97mi
501 Burke Dr Hinesville, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1132	$1,939	$1.71	5d	28	1.06mi
200 Alcove Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1672	$2,300	$1.38	1d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail $30/mo · $360/yr

• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-02
   remarks 642-char remark
2. 2026-06-02
   listed $244,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,295
• − Property taxes: −$4,096
• − Insurance: −$2,868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,018
• − Management: −$2,018
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$7,943
• Taxable loss: −$9,369
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,249
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,360–$25,080 screening

This well-maintained, move-in-ready home with good condition and a good condition score is ready for a new owner or tenant.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Trim and bushes — Improves landscaping and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 23/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Waldo Pafford Elementary School F GA #790/1,228 Nat'l #31,549/41,679 Middle Lewis Frasier Middle School F GA #271/470 Nat'l #9,793/14,009 High Bradwell Institute F GA #243/424 Nat'l #14,491/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty County
• NCES district ID: 1303300
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,911
• Composite: 20.2/100
• National rank: #8630
• State rank: #133 of 174 in GA

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Hinesville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #5200

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hinesville, GA
• County: Liberty County · 58,689 people
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 42,838
• Household income: $60,233
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,689 people
• By 2030: 57,670 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 55,750 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 54,155 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 58,947 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 66,919 · +14.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: D (+17.4) · D 58.5% · R 41.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.4 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+30.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.50%
• Current HPI: 208.0927
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.41%
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B