516 Longmount Cv · Liberty Hill, TX
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 7/10 · Major
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 106°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 23 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 70.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +13.2/15.0
- Cash flow +5.6/30.0
- Schools +4.8/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.4/5.0
- 1% rule +2.7/10.0
- Rent growth +2.0/5.0
- DSCR +0.0/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$310,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Beautiful barely lived in home in Butler Farms in Liberty Hill. This 4 bedroom 2.5 bath is move in ready. Spacious living room open to the kitchen and the dining area. Quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances and walk in pantry. Barn door has been added to the half bath entry to add a little country living charm. Spend evenings outside sitting under the covered patio and enjoying your spacious backyard. Room to add a pool, playscape and/or trampoline. New Sod has recently been laid. All bedrooms are located upstairs in addition to an extra living space. Spacious primary bedroom and primary bathroom with double vanity and walk-in shower. Butler Farms is a new and growing community. Community pool and community amenities will be added to the community in the future. Butler Farms is also close location to the popular Liberty Hill High School. Don't wait for the builder to build your dream home when you can move into 516 Longmount Cove now. Check it out!
Key facts
- Open floor plan
- Second living space
- Large backyard
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-647 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (36.8% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (22.9% below list).
- Recommended offer: $196k (36.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
- Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.9% in Liberty Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 68/100 on livability (#495 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
- Liberty Hill ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #160 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Bill Burden El (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 808 students, 19% FRL); Liberty Hill Middle (math 44% / reading 50%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 944 students, 26% FRL); Liberty Hill H S (math 39% / reading 69%, grade C-, #422 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,001 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 2064 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 86d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.77% ✗
- Cap rate
- 3.79%
- Cash-on-cash
- -8.94%
- DSCR
- 0.60
- GRM
- 10.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $355,274
- List price
- $310,000
- Delta
- -12.74%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 520 Longmount Cv | 0.01mi | 4/2.5 | 2,026 (-5%) | 2mo | $300,000 | $148 | 90 |
| 221 Longmount Cv | 0.14mi | 4/2.5 | 2,047 (-4%) | 2mo | $314,900 | $154 | 85 |
| 112 Prairie Song Ln | 0.18mi | 4/2.5 | 2,047 (-4%) | 2mo | $310,000 | $151 | 83 |
| 405 Wild Spur Ln | 0.13mi | 4/2.5 | 1,981 (-7%) | 0mo | $344,990 | $174 | 82 |
| 109 Rivendale St | 0.20mi | 4/2.5 | 2,024 (-5%) | 2mo | $325,990 | $161 | 80 |
| 205 Skyview Farms Ln | 0.34mi | 4/3.0 | 2,243 (+5%) | 2mo | $420,990 | $188 | 72 |
| 200 Windfall Trl | 0.37mi | 4/3.0 | 2,042 (-4%) | 2mo | $329,990 | $162 | 71 |
| 531 Lavender Crest Cv | 0.39mi | 4/3.0 | 2,243 (+5%) | 0mo | $389,990 | $174 | 71 |
| 112 Windfall Trl | 0.49mi | 4/3.0 | 2,042 (-4%) | 2mo | $365,990 | $179 | 66 |
| 105 Rivendale St | 0.20mi | 3/2.5 (-1) | 1,872 (-12%) | 3mo | $348,990 | $186 | 63 |
| 535 Lavender Crest Cv | 0.59mi | 4/3.0 | 2,044 (-4%) | 1mo | $379,990 | $186 | 62 |
| 820 Loriner Way | 0.42mi | 4/2.5 | 2,372 (+11%) | 1mo | $364,990 | $154 | 61 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -36.3%
- Equity multiple
- -0.13×
- Total profit
- $-98,145
- Equity at exit
- $46,222
- IRR
- -79.4%
- Equity multiple
- -0.89×
- Total profit
- $-164,443
- Equity at exit
- $26,803
Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 61 active · 26 under contract
- Months of supply
- 16.6 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $348,990 ($169/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 135 d
- This list price
- 21% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -1.3% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 78642
- Home prices YoY
- -32.4%
- Rents YoY
- -1.9%
- Active inventory
- 2064
- Price-to-rent
- 10.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,391 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,626
- Tax from tax record
- −$740 /mo · $8,874/yr
- Insurance
- −$129
- HOA
- −$41
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$502
- Net cashflow
- $-647
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-471 | -5% $-559 | +0% $-647 | +5% $-734 | +10% $-822 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-835 | -5% $-741 | +0% $-647 | +5% $-552 | +10% $-458 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-490 | -0.5pp $-568 | base $-647 | +0.5pp $-727 | +1.0pp $-809 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $77,500
- Closing costs
- $9,300
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 9 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 552 Longmount Cv Liberty Hill, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2021 | $2,095 | $1.04 | 69d | 1 | 0.05mi |
| 504 Longmount Cv Liberty Hill, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1509 | $1,900 | $1.26 | 0d | 1 | 0.05mi |
| 517 Longmount Cv Liberty Hill, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1509 | $1,975 | $1.31 | 0d | 1 | 0.05mi |
| 517 Longmount Cv Liberty Hill, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1509 | $2,000 | $1.33 | 17d | 1 | 0.05mi |
| 201 Outlaw Dr Liberty Hill, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1500 | $1,950 | $1.30 | 138d | 1 | 0.13mi |
| 201 Longmount Cv Liberty Hill, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1448 | $1,995 | $1.38 | 138d | 1 | 0.13mi |
| 201 Longmount Cv Liberty Hill, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1448 | $1,895 | $1.31 | 112d | 1 | 0.13mi |
| 212 Prairie Song Ln Liberty Hill, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2047 | $2,149 | $1.05 | 85d | 1 | 0.26mi |
| 336 Windstar Rd Liberty Hill, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2013 | $2,000 | $0.99 | 158d | 1 | 0.47mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Homeowners association (Goodwin & Co) with quarterly fee of $122.50 covering common area maintenanceCommunity amenities include pool, curbs, and sidewalks
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached garageDriveway parkingGarage faces frontTwo covered parking spaces (total 2)
- Security
- Smoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detectors
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableNatural gas availableCable availableHigh-speed internet availablePhone availableUnderground utilities
- Home design
- Two-story homeSoutheast facingResale propertyBuilt by Meritage Homes
- Construction
- Built with brick, frame, HardiPlank, concrete, and stoneSpray foam insulationComposition roofSlab foundation
- Exterior features
- In-wall pest control systemRain guttersCovered patioPatioFenced backyard with wood fencingLandscaped yardAutomatic sprinklers (front, rear, side)
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowavePlumbed for ice makerVented exhaust fan
- Flooring
- CarpetTileVinyl
- Bathrooms
- Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Central heating (electric, heat pump)Central air conditioningSmart thermostat
- Interior features
- Ceiling fansEntrance foyerHigh-speed internet availableKitchen islandMultiple living areasOpen floor planPantryRecessed lightingSmart home featuresSmart thermostatWalk-in closetsDouble pane insulated windows
- Laundry & utility
- Inside laundryUpper-level laundryWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupGas water heater
HOA detail $41/mo · $492/yr
- Likely covers
- pool
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-11-02days on market $310,000 Active 221 DOM
-
2026-11-01days on market $310,000 Active 220 DOM
-
2026-10-31days on market $310,000 Active 219 DOM
-
2026-10-30days on market $310,000 Active 218 DOM
-
2026-10-29days on market $310,000 Active 217 DOM
-
2026-10-28days on market $310,000 Active 216 DOM
-
2026-10-27days on market $310,000 Active 215 DOM
-
2026-10-26days on market $310,000 Active 214 DOM
-
2026-10-26days on market $310,000 Active 213 DOM
-
2026-10-24days on market $310,000 Active 212 DOM
-
2026-10-23days on market $310,000 Active 211 DOM
-
2026-10-22days on market $310,000 Active 210 DOM
-
2026-10-21days on market $310,000 Active 209 DOM
-
2026-10-20days on market $310,000 Active 208 DOM
-
2026-10-19days on market $310,000 Active 207 DOM
-
2026-10-18days on market $310,000 Active 206 DOM
-
2026-10-17days on market $310,000 Active 205 DOM
-
2026-10-16days on market $310,000 Active 204 DOM
-
2026-10-15days on market $310,000 Active 203 DOM
-
2026-10-14days on market $310,000 Active 202 DOM
-
2026-10-13days on market $310,000 Active 201 DOM
-
2026-10-12days on market $310,000 Active 200 DOM
-
2026-10-11days on market $310,000 Active 199 DOM
-
2026-10-10days on market $310,000 Active 198 DOM
-
2026-10-09days on market $310,000 Active 197 DOM
-
2026-10-08days on market $310,000 Active 196 DOM
-
2026-10-07days on market $310,000 Active 195 DOM
-
2026-10-06days on market $310,000 Active 194 DOM
-
2026-10-05days on market $310,000 Active 193 DOM
-
2026-10-04days on market $310,000 Active 192 DOM
-
2026-10-04days on market $310,000 Active 191 DOM
-
2026-10-02days on market $310,000 Active 190 DOM
-
2026-10-01statusdays on market $310,000 Active 189 DOM
-
2026-09-30days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 188 DOM
-
2026-09-29days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 187 DOM
-
2026-09-28days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 186 DOM
-
2026-09-27days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 185 DOM
-
2026-09-25days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 183 DOM
-
2026-09-24days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 182 DOM
-
2026-09-23days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 181 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 180 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 179 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 178 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 177 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 176 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 175 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 174 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 173 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 172 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 171 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $8,874 · $740/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $8,874 · $740/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 7/10 Severe
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $28,690
- − Mortgage interest
- −$17,365
- − Property taxes
- −$8,874
- − Insurance
- −$1,550
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,295
- − Management
- −$2,295
- − HOA
- −$492
- − Depreciation
- −$9,018
- Taxable loss
- −$13,200
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$3,168
- After-tax cash flow
- $-4,591/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level and minimal repairs needed.
Value-add opportunities
- Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
- Rental Replace ceiling fan — Improves comfort and can attract renters ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Liberty Hill ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4827420
- Math proficiency
- 43% ▼ -20.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 52% ▼ -11.00%
- Median HH income
- $81,084
- Composite
- 43.65/100
- National rank
- #2965
- State rank
- #160 of 826 in TX
Livability — Liberty Hill
- Score
- 68/100
- State rank
- #495
- US rank
- #9892
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Liberty Hill, TX
- County
- Williamson County · 699,027 people
- City population
- 26,434
- Metro
- Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 26,434
- Household income
- $132,958
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 3% of renters
Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 699,027 people
- By 2030
- 795,537 · +13.8%
- By 2040
- 990,683 · +41.7%
- By 2050
- 1,184,292 · +69.4%
- By 2075
- 1,623,825 · +132.3%
- By 2100
- 1,924,153 · +175.3%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (65%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 65% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 14% Asian 2% Black 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
- Languages at home
- 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Williamson
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -109.62%
- Current HPI
- 228.5772
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -1.89%
- Metro
- Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
||
| Technology | 5 | $198B |
|
||
| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
|
||
| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
|
||
| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
|
||
Price history
-22.5% since first listed15 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-14 Contingent — Unlock MLS
- 2026-03-26 Listed $310,000 Unlock MLS
- 2025-06-20 Listed — Unlock MLS
- 2024-05-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
- 2024-05-30 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
- 2024-05-16 Pending — CTXMLS
- 2024-05-10 Pending — Unlock MLS
- 2024-05-01 Contingent — CTXMLS
- 2024-05-01 Contingent — Unlock MLS
- 2024-04-17 Price Changed $365,000 CTXMLS
- 2024-04-17 Price Changed $365,000 Unlock MLS
- 2024-04-02 Price Changed $389,000 CTXMLS
- 2024-04-01 Price Changed $389,000 Unlock MLS
- 2024-03-23 Listed $399,900 CTXMLS
- 2024-03-23 Listed $399,900 Unlock MLS
Property tax history
+46.5%/yrLatest (2026): $8,874 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…