40190 Olde Mill Ln · Ponchatoula, LA 70454

$234,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,657 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 2008 $142/sqft · 10% below area Est $261k · 10% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious and well-designed, this split-level home offers high ceilings, crown molding, and gas fireplace in the main living space. The layout features both a formal dining area and a separate breakfast nook, along with a convenient breakfast bar. Kitchen includes a gas stove and brand new dishwasher. The primary bedroom has tray ceilings, a walk-in closet, double vanities, and a relaxing jetted tub. Step outside to enjoy the extended back patio, fully fenced yard, plus a large 16x20 shed for extra storage or workspace. This home is also equipped with Smart features for AC and front door. Roof replaced in 2022.

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Brand new dishwasher
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• GAS FIREPLACE
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• BREAKFAST BAR
• GAS STOVE
• BRAND NEW DISHWASHER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-99/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.2% in Ponchatoula — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#91 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tucker Memorial Elementary School (709 students, 67% FRL); Ponchatoula Junior High School (math 18% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 770 students, 60% FRL); Ponchatoula High School (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #106 of 265 statewide, top 43%, 2,262 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 527 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,644 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,706
• List price: $234,900
• Delta: -9.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40158 Olde Mill Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,841 (+11%)	0mo	$264,900	$144	74
40205 Olde Mill Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-12%)	7mo	$250,000	$171	72
20173 Pecan Allee Ext	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-10%)	1mo	$229,000	$153	70
40049 Olde Mill Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+9%)	22mo	$247,500	$138	63
40136 Dunson Rd Rd	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+4%)	23mo	$225,000	$131	58
20116 Davis Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,884 (+14%)	19mo	$259,000	$137	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-42,943
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-55,122
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70454

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 527
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,866 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,632/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,877

Max offer price $233,440

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $58	+0% $-8	+5% $-75	+10% $-141
Rent	-10% $-156	-5% $-82	+0% $-8	+5% $65	+10% $139
Rate	-1.0pp $110	-0.5pp $51	base $-8	+0.5pp $-69	+1.0pp $-131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39676 Gayle Rd Ponchatoula, LA	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,700	$0.94	45d	1	0.72mi
21176 Brighton Cove Dr Ponchatoula, LA	3.0	2.0	1705	$2,000	$1.17	45d	1	1.14mi
816 Decatur St Unit A Ponchatoula, LA	3.0	2.0	1567	$1,850	$1.18	45d	1	1.44mi
101 Village Oaks Blvd Unit B Ponchatoula, LA	3.0	2.0	1921	$1,800	$0.94	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $234,900 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $234,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,900 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $234,900 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,900 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $234,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $234,900 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $234,900 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $234,900 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $234,900 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,900 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,900 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $234,900 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 45 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $239,000 Active 44 DOM
19. 2026-05-03
    price $239,000 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Spacious and well-designed, this split-level home offers high ceilings, crown molding, and gas fireplace in the main living space. The layout features both a formal dining area and a separate breakfast nook, along with a convenient breakfast bar. Kitchen includes a gas stove and brand new dishwasher. The primary bedroom has tray ceilings, a walk-in closet, double vanities, and a relaxing jetted tub. Step outside to enjoy the extended back patio, fully fenced yard, plus a large 16x20 shed for extra storage or workspace. This home is also equipped with Smart features for AC and front door. Roof replaced in 2022.

20. 2026-05-03
    price $239,000 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Spacious and well-designed, this split-level home offers high ceilings, crown molding, and gas fireplace in the main living space. The layout features both a formal dining area and a separate breakfast nook, along with a convenient breakfast bar. Kitchen includes a gas stove and brand new dishwasher. The primary bedroom has tray ceilings, a walk-in closet, double vanities, and a relaxing jetted tub. Step outside to enjoy the extended back patio, fully fenced yard, plus a large 16x20 shed for extra storage or workspace. This home is also equipped with Smart features for AC and front door. Roof replaced in 2022.

21. 2026-04-16
    listed $245,000 Active 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Spacious and well-designed, this split-level home offers high ceilings, crown molding, and gas fireplace in the main living space. The layout features both a formal dining area and a separate breakfast nook, along with a convenient breakfast bar. Kitchen includes a gas stove and brand new dishwasher. The primary bedroom has tray ceilings, a walk-in closet, double vanities, and a relaxing jetted tub. Step outside to enjoy the extended back patio, fully fenced yard, plus a large 16x20 shed for extra storage or workspace. This home is also equipped with Smart features for AC and front door. Roof replaced in 2022.

22. 2026-04-16
    listed $245,000 Active 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Spacious and well-designed, this split-level home offers high ceilings, crown molding, and gas fireplace in the main living space. The layout features both a formal dining area and a separate breakfast nook, along with a convenient breakfast bar. Kitchen includes a gas stove and brand new dishwasher. The primary bedroom has tray ceilings, a walk-in closet, double vanities, and a relaxing jetted tub. Step outside to enjoy the extended back patio, fully fenced yard, plus a large 16x20 shed for extra storage or workspace. This home is also equipped with Smart features for AC and front door. Roof replaced in 2022.

23. 2021-04-23
    soldstatus $215,000 Closed
24. 2021-03-12
    status Pending
25. 2021-03-07
    listed $215,000 Active
26. 2021-03-07
    listed $215,000
27. 2018-02-15
    soldstatus $185,000
28. 2018-02-12
    soldstatus $185,000 Sold
29. 2018-01-10
    historical Pending Continue to Show
30. 2017-12-22
    listed $185,000 Active
31. 2017-12-22
    listed $185,000
32. 2007-11-05
    soldstatus $202,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,632 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,632 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$1,632
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,792
• − Management: −$1,792
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$4,189
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,005
• After-tax cash flow: $906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tangipahoa Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201680
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $41,283
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8676
• State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

Livability — Ponchatoula

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #9755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tangipahoa Parish · 85,958 people
• City population: 34,564
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• Population (ZIP): 34,564
• Household income: $71,611
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 479.0

Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,204 people
• By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
• By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.55%
• Current HPI: 129.6069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.66%
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+18.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $239,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $239,000 GSREIN
• 2026-04-16 Listed $245,000 GSREIN
• 2026-04-16 Listed $245,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2021-04-23 Sold (MLS) $215,000 GSREIN
• 2021-03-12 Pending — GSREIN
• 2021-03-07 Listed $215,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2021-03-07 Listed $215,000 GSREIN
• 2018-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-12 Sold (MLS) $185,000 GSREIN
• 2018-01-10 Contingent — GSREIN
• 2017-12-22 Listed $185,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2017-12-22 Listed $185,000 GSREIN
• 2007-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $202,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,632 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.