34 Waterhole Rd · Springs, NY 11937

$1,395,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 1997 0.43 ac lot Est $1451k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Immaculate and charming, this 3Bed/2Bath Clearwater Beach home with soaring ceilings and tons of natural light offers the opportunity to move right in and enjoy or a refresh with expansion/upgrade options with plenty of room for a pool, an expansive basement with high ceilings for additional living spaces and/or increase the home's current footprint. The living room with woodburning fireplace greets you as you enter with an adjacent dining area that opens to a wonderful kitchen, offering a comfortable space for entertaining. Down the hall you have two guest bedrooms and a guest bath along with a large primary bedroom suite which includes an ensuite bath with separate tub and shower along wi

Key facts

• Patio area
• Nice sized deck
• 0.43 acre lot

Tags

• WOODBURNING FIREPLACE
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• MATURE PERIMETER LANDSCAPING
• NICE SIZED DECK
• PATIO AREA
• GATED HOMEOWNERS PARK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank; No additional utilities listed
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Shingle siding; Full unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7 (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (oil); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Patio
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.40M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($90k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.40M).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Springs School (math 55% / reading 60%, grade C+, #839 of 2,108 statewide, top 40%, 689 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $20,267/mo this rent would consume 187% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $42k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $391k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $720k; list at $1.40M implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,395,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.11%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,451,250
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Norfolk Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-7%)	22mo	$1,350,000	$1,125	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $359,709
• Equity at exit: $207,999

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $1,415,947
• Equity at exit: $120,614

Cash invested: $390,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,267 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,316
• Tax from tax record: −$593 /mo · $7,114/yr
• Insurance: −$581
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,256
• Net cashflow: $7,522

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,746

Max offer price $1,395,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8,311	-5% $7,916	+0% $7,522	+5% $7,127	+10% $6,732
Rent	-10% $5,920	-5% $6,721	+0% $7,522	+5% $8,322	+10% $9,123
Rate	-1.0pp $8,224	-0.5pp $7,876	base $7,522	+0.5pp $7,160	+1.0pp $6,792

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $348,750
• Closing costs: $41,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1181 Springs Fireplace Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$75,000	$46.88	46d	1	0.49mi
85 Camberly Rd East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.5	1700	$40,000	$23.53	26d	1	0.51mi
12 Underwood Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$30,000	$18.75	21d	1	0.76mi
19 Pond Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$85,000	$56.67	46d	1	0.77mi
197 Hog Creek Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1700	$20,000	$11.76	46d	1	0.84mi
12 Maidstone Park Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.5	1800	$75,000	$41.67	46d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $1,395,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,114 · $593/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,345 · $1,279/mo
• Expected delta: +$8,231/yr (+$686/mo · 115.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $243,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$78,142
• − Property taxes: −$7,114
• − Insurance: −$6,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,457
• − Management: −$19,457
• − Depreciation: −$40,582
• Taxable income: $71,482
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$17,156
• After-tax cash flow: $73,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springs Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $75,413
• Composite: 51.42/100
• National rank: #1728
• State rank: #239 of 590 in NY

Livability — Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #15666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springs, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+93.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $1,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $720,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,114 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.