313 E Pembroke St · Tuscola, IL 61953

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 929 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1947 6,011 sqft lot $129/sqft · 8% below area Est $148k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and efficient 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch offering 1,054 square feet of comfortable living space. This home features hard surface flooring throughout, central air, and a functional layout ideal for both tenants and future owner-occupants. The attached 1-car garage adds convenience and additional storage. Currently leased through 10/03/2026 at $1,050 per month, this property presents a solid investment opportunity with immediate rental income. 24-hour notice is required for all showings. This home can also be purchased as part of a package at a discounted price with 701 S. Embarras Ave. and 812 E. Pembroke St. in Tuscola-an excellent opportunity to expand your portfolio.

Key facts

• 6,011 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($175/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.4% in Tuscola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#257 in IL, #4,735 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Tuscola CUSD 301 (town): math 16% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #380 of 620 in IL (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $120k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $105,181 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.52%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,391
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -19.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
313 E Overton St	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,042 (+12%)	1mo	$169,000	$162	72
403 E Pinzon St	0.51mi	2/1.0	940 (+1%)	3mo	$197,500	$210	71
404 N Carico St	0.29mi	2/1.0	900 (-3%)	14mo	$125,000	$139	70
106 W Van Allen St	0.45mi	2/1.0	884 (-5%)	5mo	$145,000	$164	67
202 E Pembroke St	0.14mi	2/1.0	1,060 (+14%)	7mo	$68,000	$64	64
907 E Newkirk St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (-2%)	9mo	$135,000	$148	62
602 E Daggy St	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,050 (+13%)	5mo	$121,000	$115	56
702 E Daggy St	0.32mi	2/1.0	804 (-14%)	8mo	$92,000	$114	56
505 E Buckner St	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,004 (+8%)	19mo	$24,000	$24	54
706 E Buckner St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,004 (+8%)	19mo	$143,520	$143	45
708 E Ficklin St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+8%)	13mo	$104,900	$105	43
917 Timmons Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+14%)	6mo	$140,500	$133	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-18,511
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-14,894
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61953

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,052 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,645/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,033

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $49	+0% $15	+5% $-19	+10% $-53
Rent	-10% $-69	-5% $-27	+0% $15	+5% $56	+10% $98
Rate	-1.0pp $75	-0.5pp $45	base $15	+0.5pp $-17	+1.0pp $-48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
704 N Main St Unit 704-203 Tuscola, IL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,000	$1.54	44d	1	0.41mi
704 N Main St Tuscola, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,200	$1.55	14d	3	0.41mi
704 N Main St Unit 704-308 Tuscola, IL	1.0	1.0	600	$900	$1.50	44d	1	0.41mi
808 E Ficklin St Tuscola, IL	3.0	1.0	940	$1,425	$1.52	44d	1	0.65mi
206 Nicholas Dr Unit A Tuscola, IL	1.0	1.0	585	$650	$1.11	44d	1	0.92mi
206 Nicholas Dr Unit B Tuscola, IL	2.0	1.0	700	$725	$1.04	44d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $120,000 Active 683-char remark

    Show marketing remark (683 chars)

    Charming and efficient 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch offering 1,054 square feet of comfortable living space. This home features hard surface flooring throughout, central air, and a functional layout ideal for both tenants and future owner-occupants. The attached 1-car garage adds convenience and additional storage. Currently leased through 10/03/2026 at $1,050 per month, this property presents a solid investment opportunity with immediate rental income. 24-hour notice is required for all showings. This home can also be purchased as part of a package at a discounted price with 701 S. Embarras Ave. and 812 E. Pembroke St. in Tuscola-an excellent opportunity to expand your portfolio.

18. 2025-10-01
    historical
19. 2025-05-26
    price
20. 2025-04-02
    listed Active
21. 2025-03-26
    historical
22. 2025-03-06
    listed Active
23. 2023-12-20
    historical $850
24. 2023-11-20
    listed $850
25. 2018-05-31
    soldstatus $53,000
26. 2004-01-13
    soldstatus $41,500
27. 1994-06-22
    soldstatus $12,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,645 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,185 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$539/yr (+$45/mo · 32.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,622
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,645
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,010
• − Management: −$1,010
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$1,856
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$445
• After-tax cash flow: $620/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscola CUSD 301
• NCES district ID: 1739600
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $50,982
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8748
• State rank: #380 of 620 in IL

Livability — Tuscola

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #257
• US rank: #4735

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tuscola, IL
• Population (ZIP): 6,439

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,209 people
• By 2030: 18,940 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 18,397 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 17,829 · -7.2%
• By 2075: 16,395 · -14.6%
• By 2100: 14,329 · -25.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · German/W. Germanic 6% Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.1) · D 26.1% · R 72.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.3pp · 2024: -46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.1 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+36.8 2008: R+21.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.74%
• Current HPI: 192.1209
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+860.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $120,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-26 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-02 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-26 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-06 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-20 Rental Removed $850 TURBOTENANT
• 2023-11-20 Listed for Rent $850 TURBOTENANT
• 2018-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records
• 1994-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,645 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.