159 Brown Rd · Millington, TN 38023

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1990

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom and 2 bath 2200 square foot doublewide sitting on 1/2 acre. Big bedrooms with double closets. New HVAC unit. All electric. Roof replaced two years ago. With storage barn. Tipton County Schools and no more than 10 minutes from Millington. Need cosmetics repairs. No lease purchase and not for rent. Must secure own financing or Cash. Show by appointment only. s

Key facts

• Built 1990
• Listed 72 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($892/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#182 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Tipton County (rural): math 33% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #37 of 139 in TN (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Drummonds Elementary (math 23% / reading 23%, grade F, #593 of 952 statewide, top 62%, 704 students, 0% FRL); Munford Middle School (math 48% / reading 34%, grade F, #37 of 333 statewide, top 12%, 914 students, 0% FRL); Munford High School (math 21% / reading 40%, grade F, #75 of 332 statewide, top 24%, 1,195 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 225 units permitted in Tipton County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tipton County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.36%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $78,276
• Equity at exit: $121,619

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.00×
• Total profit: $226,826
• Equity at exit: $262,275

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38023

• Home prices YoY: 15.3%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $121	+0% $74	+5% $28	+10% $-19
Rent	-10% $-26	-5% $24	+0% $74	+5% $125	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $142	-0.5pp $109	base $74	+0.5pp $39	+1.0pp $4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
97 Riverchase Dr Millington, TN	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,275	$1.02	21d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-04-06
    listed $135,000 Active 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    3 bedroom and 2 bath 2200 square foot doublewide sitting on 1/2 acre. Big bedrooms with double closets. New HVAC unit. All electric. Roof replaced two years ago. With storage barn. Tipton County Schools and no more than 10 minutes from Millington. Need cosmetics repairs. No lease purchase and not for rent. Must secure own financing or Cash. Show by appointment only. s

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$1,337
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$321
• After-tax cash flow: $1,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tipton County
• NCES district ID: 4704080
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $52,908
• Composite: 27.75/100
• National rank: #6898
• State rank: #37 of 139 in TN

Livability — Millington

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #14813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 25,303
• Population (ZIP): 5,343

Population outlook (Tipton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,087 people
• By 2030: 63,187 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 62,163 · -1.5%
• By 2050: 59,188 · -6.2%
• By 2075: 51,271 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 40,542 · -35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tipton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.8) · D 23.1% · R 76.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -52.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.8 2020: R+48.5 2016: R+47.5 2012: R+39.6 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 37.67%
• Current HPI: 284.2583
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $135,000 Fizber.com

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $248 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.