20777 Southwood St · Fairhope, AL 36532

$349,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,059 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2008 8,319 sqft lot $169/sqft · 7% below area Est $374k · 7% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this move-in ready home in Fairhope River Station community! Easy to show. This 4 bedroom, 3 full bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. Step inside to an open floor plan filled with abundant natural light, enhanced by blinds and transom windows. The foyer entrance welcomes you with elegant crown molding, while the spacious living area features high ceilings, additional crown molding, and a cozy gas fireplace that creates a warm and inviting atmosphere for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, crown molding, a separate pantry, and a charming br

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Transom windows
• Plantation shutters

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• TRANSOM WINDOWS
• FOYER ENTRANCE
• CROWN MOLDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Mineral rights: unknown
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $275; includes cable TV and grounds maintenance; No community amenities listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached double garage with automatic door (2 covered spaces)
• Security: Intercom
• Utilities: Served by Fairhope utilities
• Home design: Single-family home; One story; Resale property; Whole/full ownership; Zoned for single family residence
• Construction: Built with brick, vinyl siding and wood siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Building area measured by agent (2,059 square feet)
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Patio; Screened porch; Front porch; Corner lot in a subdivision; No waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with attached bath (main/1st floor), approx. 17 x 15; Second bedroom approx. 12 x 12; Third bedroom approx. 12 x 12; Fourth bedroom approx. 12 x 12
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Primary bath with double vanity, soaking tub and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Sun room; High ceilings; Internet service available; Split bedroom plan; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Main level laundry located inside (approx. 6 x 5 utility)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (29.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.8% in Fairhope — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AL, #3,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fairhope East Elementary (math 53% / reading 78%, grade B+, #37 of 627 statewide, top 6%, 740 students, 30% FRL); Fairhope Middle School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade A-, #3 of 257 statewide, top 1%, 777 students, 33% FRL); Fairhope High School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #22 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,629 students, 31% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 58% at this address vs 45% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baldwin County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 633 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,214 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.83%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $373,532
• List price: $349,000
• Delta: -6.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10699 Eastwood Ave	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,961 (-5%)	3mo	$353,000	$180	78
10849 Eastwood Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,190 (+6%)	1mo	$345,000	$158	77
10452 Gayfer Road Ext	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,001 (-3%)	1mo	$425,000	$212	65
268 Falls Creek St	0.66mi	4/2.0	2,121 (+3%)	4mo	$430,000	$203	57
176 Ornate Ave	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,230 (+8%)	5mo	$419,000	$188	54
212 Ornate Ave	0.49mi	4/2.0	2,270 (+10%)	3mo	$440,000	$194	54
116 Petz Ave	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,868 (-9%)	2mo	$385,000	$206	53
697 Calibre St	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,304 (+12%)	2mo	$440,000	$191	53
191 Ornate Ave	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,336 (+14%)	2mo	$465,000	$199	52
247 Falls Creek St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,986 (-4%)	3mo	$378,000	$190	51
20363 Cadena Creek Ave	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,226 (+8%)	6mo	$362,000	$163	46
20367 River Mill Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,798 (-13%)	2mo	$285,000	$159	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-66,338
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-71,165
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36532

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 633
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,452 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,053/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,641

Max offer price $322,654

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $-50	+0% $-149	+5% $-248	+10% $-347
Rent	-10% $-343	-5% $-246	+0% $-149	+5% $-52	+10% $45
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-60	base $-149	+0.5pp $-240	+1.0pp $-332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10510 Gayfer Road Ext Fairhope, AL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,900	$1.30	45d	1	0.39mi
177 Ferdinand Ave Fairhope, AL	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,350	$1.31	45d	1	0.42mi
101 Normandy St Fairhope, AL	3.0	2.5	2377	$2,250	$0.95	45d	1	0.73mi
9704 Chariot Ave Fairhope, AL	4.0	2.0	1813	$2,000	$1.10	22d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $349,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $349,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $349,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $349,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $349,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $349,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $349,000 Active Under Contract 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,000 Active Under Contract 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    status $349,000 Active Under Contract 25 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,000 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,000 Active 23 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $349,000 Active 22 DOM
20. 2026-05-01
    listed $349,000 Active 1719-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,053 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,431 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$378/yr (+$32/mo · 35.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,426
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$1,053
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,354
• − Management: −$2,354
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$8,058
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,934
• After-tax cash flow: $144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Fairhope

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairhope, AL
• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 38,108
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 38,108
• Household income: $89,694
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 665.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -175.08%
• Current HPI: 299.6643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Relisted — BCAR
• 2026-06-02 Contingent — BCAR
• 2026-06-02 Pending — BCAR
• 2026-05-01 Listed $349,000 BCAR

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2019): $1,053 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.