504 Bluebonnet St · Aubrey, TX 76227

$169,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1950 3,920 sqft lot $151/sqft · 36% below area Est $262k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute three bedroom one bath home, metal roof, new carpet, updated windows. Aubrey ISD.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• New carpet
• Updated windows

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• NEW CARPET
• UPDATED WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $427 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.4% in Aubrey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#332 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1885 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.83%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,448
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -35.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
707 Caddell St	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,089 (-3%)	7mo	$235,000	$216	85
803 Chestnut St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-4%)	14mo	$200,000	$185	66
103 W Plum St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+5%)	10mo	$265,000	$225	65
408 S Magnolia St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,094 (-2%)	15mo	$245,000	$224	61
309 W Pecan St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+9%)	16mo	$282,000	$230	60
301 E Pecan St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,176 (+5%)	24mo	$145,000	$123	55
105 E North St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (+2%)	5mo	$232,500	$203	55
122 Highmeadow Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,153 (+3%)	18mo	$280,000	$243	54
600 Mary St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	972 (-13%)	20mo	$158,000	$163	44
305 Mimosa St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,073 (-4%)	22mo	$250,000	$233	44
410 Tisdell Ln	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (0%)	23mo	$200,000	$179	41
408 Demoye Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+7%)	23mo	$300,000	$251	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,709
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,693
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1885
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,871 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,127/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $427

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,330

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
601 Countryside Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	4d	1	0.27mi
213 S Magnolia St Aubrey, TX	2.0	2.5	1261	$1,395	$1.11	43d	1	0.49mi
215 Linda St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,795	$1.33	5d	1	0.49mi
215 Linda St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,825	$1.35	44d	1	0.49mi
229 Irick Ct Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1346	$2,000	$1.49	3d	1	0.55mi
502 Brumley Rd Krugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,895	$1.29	43d	1	0.95mi
717 Presidio St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,100	$1.40	18d	1	0.98mi
2020 Belgian Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,900	$1.45	24d	1	1.03mi
933 King St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,100	$1.45	43d	1	1.05mi
2024 Sulky Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,046	$1.40	12d	1	1.08mi
2028 Sulky Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,900	$1.45	43d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $179,000 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    Cute three bedroom one bath home, metal roof, new carpet, updated windows. Aubrey ISD.

16. 2026-04-14
    price $188,000 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    Cute three bedroom one bath home, metal roof, new carpet, updated windows. Aubrey ISD.

17. 2026-02-11
    listed $189,000 Active 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    Cute three bedroom one bath home, metal roof, new carpet, updated windows. Aubrey ISD.

18. 2008-11-24
    soldstatus 252-char remark

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    Very cute home in quiet neighborhood. Exterior newly painted, 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, large kitchen with breakfast room, full size washer dryer connections in newly added laundry room. SOLD AS IS, NO WARRANTIES OR OPTION PERIOD, NO SELLERS DISCLOSURE.

19. 2008-11-12
    historical 252-char remark

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    Very cute home in quiet neighborhood. Exterior newly painted, 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, large kitchen with breakfast room, full size washer dryer connections in newly added laundry room. SOLD AS IS, NO WARRANTIES OR OPTION PERIOD, NO SELLERS DISCLOSURE.

20. 2008-09-10
    listed $35,000 252-char remark

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    Very cute home in quiet neighborhood. Exterior newly painted, 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, large kitchen with breakfast room, full size washer dryer connections in newly added laundry room. SOLD AS IS, NO WARRANTIES OR OPTION PERIOD, NO SELLERS DISCLOSURE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,127 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,093 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,965/yr (+$164/mo · 174.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,127
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,796
• − Management: −$1,796
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $2,500
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$600
• After-tax cash flow: $4,525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aubrey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,154
• Composite: 46.21/100
• National rank: #2492
• State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aubrey

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #7241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aubrey, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 62,127
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+411.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $179,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $188,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2008-11-24 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2008-11-12 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2008-09-10 Listed $35,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,127 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.