59 Oneida St · Oakley, CA 94561

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 940 sqft · Manufactured · 246 Days on market

Built 1968 Good condition $148/sqft · 26% above area Est $110k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Immaculate Home in Desirable Eagle City Mobile Home Park (55+ Community)Step into this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath home perfectly situated on a prime lot in one of the park's most sought-after locations. This home has been thoughtfully remodeled to combine modern finishes with comfortable living spaces. The kitchen is a true standout completely renovated with new easy to clean solid surface countertops, stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry, and a spacious breakfast bar that opens to the main living area. The open layout offers excellent flow between the kitchen, dining, and family, enhanced by an abundance of natural light. Throughout the home, you'll find brand-new vinyl

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Open layout
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• BREAKFAST BAR
• OPEN LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $912 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 3.3% in Oakley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#608 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Orchard Park (716 students, 67% FRL); Deer Valley High (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #472 of 1,170 statewide, top 42%, 1,851 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 243 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.12%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,000
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: 26.36%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Geneseo St	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,020 (+8%)	6mo	$184,950	$181	78
69 Oneida St	0.05mi	2/2.0	960 (+2%)	21mo	$180,000	$188	77
24 Otsego St	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+15%)	11mo	$199,500	$185	63
105 Ontario St	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+11%)	24mo	$190,000	$183	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $37,230
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $114,153
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94561

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 243
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,370 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $912

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,216

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,008	-5% $960	+0% $912	+5% $864	+10% $816
Rent	-10% $725	-5% $818	+0% $912	+5% $1,006	+10% $1,099
Rate	-1.0pp $982	-0.5pp $947	base $912	+0.5pp $876	+1.0pp $839

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
49 Carol Ln Oakley, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	686	$2,134	$3.11	0d	1	0.22mi
69 Carol Ln Oakley, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	802	$1,813	$2.26	0d	9	0.24mi
4290 Mehaffey Way Oakley, CA	2.0	2.0	750	$2,295	$3.06	3d	1	0.95mi
3560 E 18th St Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,954	$2.36	5d	1	1.28mi
3560 E 18th St Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,772	$2.14	0d	9	1.28mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 243 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 242 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 241 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 240 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 238 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 237 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 234 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 233 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 232 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,000 Active 229 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 228 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 227 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 226 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 225 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,276
• − Management: −$2,276
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $9,284
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,228
• After-tax cash flow: $8,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained and updated manufactured home in a desirable park offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves the look and feel of the bathrooms.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oakley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #608
• US rank: #19421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakley, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 46,368
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,368
• Household income: $134,678
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 614.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 15% Asian 9% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.42%
• Current HPI: 301.9916
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.68%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B