14201 S Green Bay Ave · Burnham, IL 60633

$172,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,274 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1956 Est $169k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this solid, charming 3-bedroom brick ranch located on a corner lot in the desirable community of Burnham, IL. This home is ideally situated just steps from Burnham Woods Golf Course and a nearby neighborhood park. Offering 1,274 sq ft of comfortable living space, this home is highlighted by hardwood floors that flow throughout the main living area and all three bedrooms, creating a warm, cohesive feel and timeless appeal. The light-filled living room welcomes you in and connects seamlessly to the dining area and spacious eat-in kitchen, offering a practical layout that & acirc; & euro; & trade; s perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Each of the three bed

Key facts

• Neighborhood park
• Corner lot
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• BURNHAM WOODS GOLF COURSE
• NEIGHBORHOOD PARK
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LIGHT-FILLED LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS EAT-IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#264 in IL, #4,889 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Thornton Fractional Twp Hsd 215 (suburban): math 9% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #563 of 620 in IL (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $169,912 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.16%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,442
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14237 S Greenbay Ave	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,265 (-1%)	2mo	$168,000	$133	89
14106 S Burnham Ave	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,215 (-5%)	21mo	$210,500	$173	69
13916 S Chippewa Ave	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,092 (-14%)	12mo	$66,500	$61	47
13918 S Chippewa Ave	0.36mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,140 (-10%)	22mo	$155,000	$136	41
2829 E 138th Pl	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-6%)	14mo	$145,000	$121	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,439
• Equity at exit: $25,720

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $26,515
• Equity at exit: $14,915

Cash invested: $48,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60633

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$905
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,722/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,523

Max offer price $172,500

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,125
• Closing costs: $5,175
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2790 E State St Apt 2E Burnham, IL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,695	$1.54	24d	1	0.65mi
2605 E Martha Pl Chicago, IL	2.0	2.0	1353	$1,860	$1.37	21d	1	0.82mi
14518 S Hoxie Ave Chicago, IL	3.0	1.5	1128	$2,450	$2.17	1d	1	1.10mi
13334 S Houston Ave Chicago, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	43d	1	1.15mi
101 Oglesby Ave Calumet City, IL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	11d	1	1.29mi
101 Oglesby Ave Calumet City, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	21d	1	1.29mi
101 Oglesby Ave Calumet City, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	19d	1	1.29mi
250 Yates Ave Unit 1616 Dolton 1E Calumet City, IL	2.0	1.0	875	$1,465	$1.67	7d	1	1.29mi
323 Memorial Dr Unit 2 Calumet City, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	24d	1	1.31mi
4624 Towle Ave Hammond, IN	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,500	$1.67	2d	1	1.38mi
4624 Towle Ave Hammond, IN	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,500	$1.67	1d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $172,500 Under Contract 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $172,500 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $172,500 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $172,500 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $172,500 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $172,500 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $172,500 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $172,500 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $172,500 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    remarks 687-char remark
11. 2026-06-02
    listed $172,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,722 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,319 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: +$597/yr (+$50/mo · 21.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,663
• − Property taxes: −$2,722
• − Insurance: −$862
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,910
• − Management: −$1,910
• − Depreciation: −$5,018
• Taxable income: $1,792
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$430
• After-tax cash flow: $3,993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Fractional Twp Hsd 215
• NCES district ID: 1738940
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 13% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,207
• Composite: 10.27/100
• National rank: #9793
• State rank: #563 of 620 in IL

Livability — Burnham

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #264
• US rank: #4889

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burnham, IL
• Population (ZIP): 12,485

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Black 29% White 25% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Armenian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.46%
• Current HPI: 274.4127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $172,500 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2021): $2,722 · +51.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.