51 E Carroll Dr · Decatur, IL 62521

$95,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Other · 16 Days on market

Built 1956 6,786 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Deceptively Spacious South Shores Ranch! Conveniently located near schools, parks, shopping, dining, and interstate access, this 3-bedroom ranch offers far more living space than meets the eye! The full finished basement has been professionally waterproofed (with warranty) and includes a full bath, laundry area, and three finished rooms—perfect for a family room, office, or guest space. This would make a great Starter Home!

Key facts

• Guest space
• Laundry area
• Three finished rooms

Tags

• FULL FINISHED BASEMENT
• PROFESSIONALLY WATERPROOFED
• LAUNDRY AREA
• THREE FINISHED ROOMS
• GUEST SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned residential
• Financial info: Financial details not specified
• HOA & community: HOA information not specified

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not specified
• Security: Security features not specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level / 1 story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Flooring not specified
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating with forced air; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished full basement; Five total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $777 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $96k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 7.0% in Decatur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,076 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Decatur SD 61 (urban): math 3% / reading 6% proficiency, ranked #605 of 620 in IL (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 63 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $663 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macon County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $66k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $94,461 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.73%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $34,025
• Equity at exit: $14,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.49×
• Total profit: $93,652
• Equity at exit: $8,292

Cash invested: $26,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62521

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,911 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,279/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $777

Break-even live

Break-even rent $928

Max offer price $95,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,975
• Closing costs: $2,877
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2150 S Imboden Pl Decatur, IL	2.0	2.0	1334	$2,775	$2.08	43d	1	0.23mi
28 Phillips Dr Decatur, IL	3.0	1.5	2250	$1,650	$0.73	43d	1	0.34mi
759 E Lawrence St Decatur, IL	3.0	1.0	1080	$695	$0.64	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   statusdays on market $95,900 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,900 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,900 Active Under Contract 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,900 Active Under Contract 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,900 Active Under Contract 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,900 Active Under Contract 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,900 Active Under Contract 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,900 Active Under Contract 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,900 Active Under Contract 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,900 Active Under Contract 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $95,900 Active Under Contract 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 427-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $95,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,279 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,279 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,935
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,372
• − Property taxes: −$2,279
• − Insurance: −$480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,835
• − Management: −$1,835
• − Depreciation: −$2,790
• Taxable income: $8,345
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,003
• After-tax cash flow: $7,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Decatur SD 61
• NCES district ID: 1711850
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 6% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,864
• Composite: 3.99/100
• National rank: #10059
• State rank: #605 of 620 in IL

Livability — Decatur

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #20533

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Decatur, IL
• County: Macon County · 78,333 people
• City population: 78,333
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• Population (ZIP): 32,665
• Household income: $66,337
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 640.0

Population outlook (Macon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,568 people
• By 2030: 94,973 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 85,250 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 75,920 · -23.8%
• By 2075: 55,962 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 36,468 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 17% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Macon

• 2024 margin: R (+18.9) · D 39.8% · R 58.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 1.1pp · 2024: -18.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+17.7 2016: R+18.1 2012: R+5.2 2008: D+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.96%
• Current HPI: 180.9274
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+47.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $95,900 CIBR
• 2025-11-11 Listed $110,000 CIBR
• 2020-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $63,267 Public Records
• 2006-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,279 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.