Chappell Plan · San Marcos, TX 78666

$188,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 265 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Secondary bedrooms
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $188,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $201,499.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-630/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.9% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dezavala El (math 13% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 575 students, 87% FRL); Goodnight Middle (math 9% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 866 students, 85% FRL); San Marcos H S (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,536 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 63% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1753 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 128d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,319 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,499
• List price: $188,999
• Delta: -6.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
229 Trinity River Holw	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	4mo	$171,999	$143	94
325 Trinity River Holw	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	0mo	$172,999	$144	93
240 Trinity River Holw	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	9mo	$207,990	$165	80
309 Navidad River Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	10mo	$204,490	$162	78
209 Trinity River Holw	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	3mo	$200,999	$146	70
208 Navidad River Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	4mo	$180,999	$131	70
221 Trinity River Holw	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	4mo	$201,999	$146	69
237 Trinity River Holw	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	4mo	$201,999	$146	68
216 Navidad River Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	7mo	$199,990	$145	67
249 Trinity River Holw	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	5mo	$196,999	$143	66
313 Trinity River Holw	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	6mo	$196,990	$143	64
312 Navidad River Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	10mo	$194,990	$141	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-37,695
• Equity at exit: $30,044

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-43,956
• Equity at exit: $17,422

Cash invested: $56,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 24 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $198,999 ($137/sqft)
• Median days on market: 110 d
• This list price: 46% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +22.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78666

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1753
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,696 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,057
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$252 /mo · $3,022/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,763

Max offer price $193,898

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $87	-5% $17	+0% $-53	+5% $-122	+10% $-192
Rent	-10% $-187	-5% $-120	+0% $-53	+5% $14	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $49	-0.5pp $-1	base $-53	+0.5pp $-105	+1.0pp $-158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,375
• Closing costs: $6,045
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
225 Trinity River Holw San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	32d	1	0.07mi
225 Trinity River Holw San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	10d	1	0.07mi
309 Trinity River Holw San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	10d	1	0.12mi
308 Navidad River Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	164d	1	0.12mi
329 Trinity River Holw San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	2d	1	0.15mi
726 Martindale Rd San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	790	$850	$1.08	184d	1	1.09mi
728 Old Martindale Rd San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	790	$850	$1.08	184d	1	1.09mi
728 Old Martindale Rd San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	790	$895	$1.13	10d	1	1.09mi
426 Spring River Dr Martindale, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,250	$1.78	164d	1	1.12mi
426 Spring River Dr Martindale, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,900	$1.50	45d	1	1.12mi
728 San Marcos Hwy San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	790	$895	$1.13	10d	1	1.14mi
712 Martindale Rd San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	790	$799	$1.01	184d	1	1.23mi
714 Martindale Rd San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	790	$799	$1.01	125d	1	1.23mi
714 Martindale Rd San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	790	$799	$1.01	164d	1	1.23mi
746 Martindale Rd San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	790	$825	$1.04	55d	1	1.24mi
746 Martindale Rd San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	790	$825	$1.04	10d	1	1.24mi
20105 San Marcos Hwy Unit 1B San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	790	$825	$1.04	184d	1	1.26mi
20105 San Marcos Hwy Unit 1B San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	790	$825	$1.04	128d	1	1.26mi
20105 San Marcos Hwy Unit 2B San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	790	$825	$1.04	105d	1	1.26mi
748 Martindale Rd San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	790	$799	$1.01	184d	1	1.26mi
20115 San Marcos Hwy San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	740	$825	$1.11	184d	1	1.27mi
121 Butler Ln Martindale, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,850	$1.63	164d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $188,999 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $188,999 Active 264 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $188,999 Active 263 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $188,999 Active 262 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $188,999 Active 261 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $188,999 Active 259 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $188,999 Active 258 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $188,999 Active 257 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $188,999 Active 256 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    pricedays on market $188,999 Active 255 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $187,999 Active 254 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $187,999 Active 253 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $187,999 Active 252 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $187,999 Active 251 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $187,999 Active 250 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $187,999 Active 249 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    price $187,999 Active 248 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $189,999 Active 248 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $189,999 Active 247 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $189,999 Active 246 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $189,999 Active 245 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $189,999 Active 244 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $189,999 Active 243 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $189,999 Active 242 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $189,999 Active 241 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $189,999 Active 240 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $189,999 Active 239 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $189,999 Active 238 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $189,999 Active 237 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $189,999 Active 236 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $189,999 Active 235 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $189,999 Active 234 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $189,999 Active 233 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $189,999 Active 232 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $189,999 Active 231 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $189,999 Active 230 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $189,999 Active 229 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $189,999 Active 228 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $189,999 Active 227 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $189,999 Active 226 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $189,999 Active 225 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $189,999 Active 224 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $189,999 Active 223 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $189,999 Active 221 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $189,999 Active 220 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    pricedays on market $189,999 Active 219 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $194,999 Active 218 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $194,999 Active 217 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $194,999 Active 216 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $194,999 Active 215 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,354
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,287
• − Property taxes: −$3,022
• − Insurance: −$1,007
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,628
• − Management: −$1,628
• − Depreciation: −$5,862
• Taxable loss: −$4,081
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$980
• After-tax cash flow: $349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-level home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of style and functionality, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and appealing to modern buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 21/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Dezavala El F TX #3,739/4,322 Nat'l #34,564/41,679 Middle Goodnight Middle F TX #1,536/1,662 Nat'l #12,406/14,009 High San Marcos H S F TX #1,157/1,632 Nat'l #11,681/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, TX
• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 88,583
• Household income: $54,737
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
• Current HPI: 187.6679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $186,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $189,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $194,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $199,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $199,990 Zillow