4346 Project Rd NW · Shallotte, NC 28420

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 292 Days on market

Built 1967 0.36 ac lot ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Handyman special near the Brunswick County beaches - includes 3 parcels! This property is a fantastic opportunity for investors or DIY enthusiasts! The roof and (3) mini split hvac systems are approximately 5-6 years old. Located close to area beaches, but yet nestled in the peaceful community of Ash, NC. Enjoy the tranquility of a rural setting but still close to shopping and dining. This home offers potential and charm-waiting for your vision! Originally a 3 bedroom- it offers plenty of space and versatility for future use. Don't miss your chance to transform this property!

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• Built 1967
• Listed 292 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $937 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 4.0% in Shallotte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#411 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waccamaw (math 47% / reading 44%, grade D-, #562 of 1,410 statewide, top 40%, 430 students, 99% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 292 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 292 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.14%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $69,856
• Equity at exit: $43,001

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.98×
• Total profit: $167,418
• Equity at exit: $64,783

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28420

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,997 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $902/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $937

Break-even live

Break-even rent $812

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2025-12-11
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-22
   status Pending
3. 2025-09-08
   price $100,000
4. 2025-08-29
   price $109,000
5. 2025-04-23
   price $129,000
6. 2025-02-22
   status Active
7. 2025-02-10
   status Pending
8. 2024-12-17
   price $139,000
9. 2024-11-22
   listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$902
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,917
• − Management: −$1,917
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $10,220
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,453
• After-tax cash flow: $8,787/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Shallotte

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #411
• US rank: #15490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,219
• Population (ZIP): 2,697

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 10% Native American 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Current HPI: 154.7713
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-35.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2025-09-22 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $100,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $109,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $129,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-02-22 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2025-02-10 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2024-12-17 Price Changed $139,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-11-22 Listed $155,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $902 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.