1621 Churchill Ln · Mansfield, TX 76063

$314,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,712 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1995 7,553 sqft lot $116/sqft · 22% below area Est $404k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently updated including interior paint, kitchen with granite counter-tops & beautiful flooring. Large family room with open floor plan, split formal areas off entry and huge master bath! Treed lot with gorgeous landscaping, custom arbor covered with wisteria and sprinkler on separate meter. Upstairs gameroom. Rear entry garage, three full baths. Latest in touch-screen internet controlled security, WiFi touch-screen thermostats and lighting.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Fenced backyard
• Local shopping

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• SPACIOUS LOT
• TOP-RATED MANSFIELD ISD
• LOCAL SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Walnut Creek Valley Add; Directions provided to property
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Built in 1995; Deed-restricted
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Gutters; Exterior lighting; Fenced yard; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in layout
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom located on 2nd floor; three additional bedrooms on 2nd floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Smart home system; Walk-in closet(s); One living area; One dining area; Total rooms: 6; Brick fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-385 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.8% in Mansfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#243 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mansfield ISD (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #125 of 826 in TX (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: J L Boren El (math 49% / reading 64%, grade C+, #559 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 606 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 739 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,934 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.24%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $404,480
• List price: $314,900
• Delta: -22.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1514 Brighton Dr	0.30mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,515 (-7%)	0mo	$339,000	$135	69
1632 Stratford Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	2,399 (-12%)	3mo	$429,900	$179	66
1801 Kris St	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,905 (+7%)	2mo	$435,000	$150	66
2607 Ridgeoak Trl	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,544 (-6%)	1mo	$376,000	$148	64
9 Losana Ct	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,625 (-3%)	1mo	$500,000	$190	60
1916 Austin St	0.55mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,607 (-4%)	2mo	$330,000	$127	60
1211 Northglen Ct	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,929 (+8%)	1mo	$500,000	$171	59
1704 Yarmouth Ln	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,984 (+10%)	1mo	$549,900	$184	56
1807 Lake Glen Trl	0.53mi	4/3.5	3,074 (+13%)	2mo	$510,000	$166	49
2908 Saint Vincent Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0	2,412 (-11%)	1mo	$405,000	$168	45
2104 Nugent Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,371 (-13%)	1mo	$405,000	$171	44
2704 Hearthside Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0	2,340 (-14%)	2mo	$389,000	$166	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-83,062
• Equity at exit: $46,953

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-132,942
• Equity at exit: $27,227

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76063

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 739
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,646 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$693 /mo · $8,311/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,133

Max offer price $246,934

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-206	-5% $-296	+0% $-385	+5% $-474	+10% $-563
Rent	-10% $-594	-5% $-489	+0% $-385	+5% $-280	+10% $-176
Rate	-1.0pp $-226	-0.5pp $-305	base $-385	+0.5pp $-466	+1.0pp $-549

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1809 Estates Dr Mansfield, TX	4.0	2.0	1797	$2,300	$1.28	14d	1	0.11mi
1809 Estates Dr Mansfield, TX	4.0	2.0	1797	$2,300	$1.28	21d	1	0.11mi
1653 Churchill Ln Mansfield, TX	3.0	2.0	2230	$2,500	$1.12	44d	1	0.17mi
1705 Fairfax Dr Unit 1301578P Mansfield, TX	4.0	2.0	2325	$7,462	$3.21	0d	1	0.23mi
1508 Kendal Dr Mansfield, TX	4.0	2.5	2282	$2,895	$1.27	25d	1	0.27mi
1410 Oxford Dr Mansfield, TX	4.0	2.0	2222	$2,750	$1.24	44d	1	0.28mi
1708 Windcastle Dr Mansfield, TX	4.0	3.0	2330	$2,600	$1.12	44d	1	0.29mi
1910 Winter Park Dr Mansfield, TX	5.0	2.5	3418	$3,036	$0.89	21d	1	0.43mi
1904 Meera Ln Mansfield, TX	4.0	3.5	3580	$3,500	$0.98	44d	1	0.44mi
2007 Walnut Hills Ln Mansfield, TX	4.0	2.0	2172	$2,400	$1.10	44d	1	0.47mi
1315 Spyglass Dr Mansfield, TX	3.0	2.5	2254	$3,100	$1.38	44d	1	0.51mi
2911 Saint Jude Dr Mansfield, TX	5.0	3.0	2900	$3,095	$1.07	4d	1	0.59mi
2901 Saint Charles Dr Mansfield, TX	5.0	2.5	2869	$3,100	$1.08	14d	1	0.61mi
1106 Almond Dr Mansfield, TX	3.0	2.0	1751	$2,800	$1.60	44d	1	0.71mi
2707 Whisper Ct Mansfield, TX	5.0	2.5	3132	$2,940	$0.94	23d	1	0.78mi
2204 Windcastle Dr Mansfield, TX	3.0	2.0	2226	$3,000	$1.35	44d	1	0.79mi
8013 Sawyer Dr Unit 2883 Arlington, TX	3.0	2.5	1822	$2,100	$1.15	0d	1	0.83mi
8101 Sawyer Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.5	1822	$2,645	$1.45	44d	1	0.84mi
635 Saint Eric Dr Mansfield, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,456	$1.23	25d	1	0.85mi
2704 Pyramid Ln Mansfield, TX	4.0	2.0	2246	$2,550	$1.14	25d	1	0.91mi
343 Mesquite Hill Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.5	2539	$3,095	$1.22	18d	1	0.92mi
8012 Blue Duck Trl Arlington, TX	4.0	2.0	1990	$2,500	$1.26	44d	1	0.93mi
615 Saint Eric Dr Mansfield, TX	4.0	2.0	2039	$1,300	$0.64	0d	1	0.93mi
8004 Mourning Dove Dr Arlington, TX	4.0	2.0	2020	$1,100	$0.54	20d	1	0.94mi
8024 Mourning Dove Dr Arlington, TX	4.0	3.0	2469	$2,680	$1.09	25d	1	0.95mi
8024 Mourning Dove Dr Arlington, TX	4.0	3.0	2469	$2,801	$1.13	44d	1	0.95mi
809 Elbe Dr Arlington, TX	4.0	2.0	1812	$2,850	$1.57	44d	1	0.95mi
1025 Aspen Ln Mansfield, TX	3.0	2.0	1814	$2,395	$1.32	3d	1	0.96mi
8001 Mourning Dove Dr Arlington, TX	4.0	2.0	1785	$2,349	$1.32	3d	1	0.97mi
8001 Mourning Dove Dr Arlington, TX	4.0	2.0	1785	$2,399	$1.34	18d	1	0.97mi
8015 Splitrail Ct Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,495	$1.40	0d	1	0.97mi
606 Primavera Dr Arlington, TX	4.0	2.0	2419	$3,100	$1.28	14d	1	0.99mi
2708 Comanche Trl Mansfield, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,875	$1.23	0d	1	1.00mi
625 Manchester Dr Mansfield, TX	5.0	2.5	3340	$3,295	$0.99	21d	1	1.02mi
502 Dover Park Trl Mansfield, TX	4.0	2.0	2691	$2,856	$1.06	23d	1	1.04mi
502 Dover Park Trl Mansfield, TX	4.0	2.0	2691	$2,790	$1.04	4d	1	1.04mi
618 Rosarita Rd Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1997	$2,395	$1.20	25d	1	1.04mi
2407 Elliott Ave Mansfield, TX	5.0	3.5	2341	$2,725	$1.16	44d	1	1.09mi
7903 Clear Fork Trl Arlington, TX	4.0	2.5	2474	$3,000	$1.21	6d	1	1.09mi
629 Rosarita Rd Arlington, TX	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,650	$1.37	18d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-01
   listed $314,900 Active 638-char remark
2. 2026-04-01
   soldstatus
3. 2015-02-26
   soldstatus
4. 2015-02-17
   soldstatus Sold 453-char remark

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   Recently updated including interior paint, kitchen with granite counter-tops & beautiful flooring. Large family room with open floor plan, split formal areas off entry and huge master bath! Treed lot with gorgeous landscaping, custom arbor covered with wisteria and sprinkler on separate meter. Upstairs gameroom. Rear entry garage, three full baths. Latest in touch-screen internet controlled security, WiFi touch-screen thermostats and lighting.

5. 2015-02-08
   status Pending 453-char remark

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   Recently updated including interior paint, kitchen with granite counter-tops & beautiful flooring. Large family room with open floor plan, split formal areas off entry and huge master bath! Treed lot with gorgeous landscaping, custom arbor covered with wisteria and sprinkler on separate meter. Upstairs gameroom. Rear entry garage, three full baths. Latest in touch-screen internet controlled security, WiFi touch-screen thermostats and lighting.

6. 2015-01-26
   historical Active Option Contract 453-char remark

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   Recently updated including interior paint, kitchen with granite counter-tops & beautiful flooring. Large family room with open floor plan, split formal areas off entry and huge master bath! Treed lot with gorgeous landscaping, custom arbor covered with wisteria and sprinkler on separate meter. Upstairs gameroom. Rear entry garage, three full baths. Latest in touch-screen internet controlled security, WiFi touch-screen thermostats and lighting.

7. 2015-01-22
   listed $210,000 Active 453-char remark

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   Recently updated including interior paint, kitchen with granite counter-tops & beautiful flooring. Large family room with open floor plan, split formal areas off entry and huge master bath! Treed lot with gorgeous landscaping, custom arbor covered with wisteria and sprinkler on separate meter. Upstairs gameroom. Rear entry garage, three full baths. Latest in touch-screen internet controlled security, WiFi touch-screen thermostats and lighting.

8. 2010-01-11
   soldstatus
9. 2009-10-23
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Pretty home with many recent updates including interior paint and carpet and wood-look laminate flooring installed in April 09. Large family room has fireplace with gas logs. Open floor plan. Split formal areas off entry. Huge master bath! Treed lot with gorgeous landscaping. Backyard has custom arbor covered with wisteria. Upstairs gameroom. Rear entry garage, three full baths, sprinkler on separate meter, security, gas heat, gas cook top.

10. 2009-09-18
    historical

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Pretty home with many recent updates including interior paint and carpet and wood-look laminate flooring installed in April 09. Large family room has fireplace with gas logs. Open floor plan. Split formal areas off entry. Huge master bath! Treed lot with gorgeous landscaping. Backyard has custom arbor covered with wisteria. Upstairs gameroom. Rear entry garage, three full baths, sprinkler on separate meter, security, gas heat, gas cook top.

11. 2009-04-27
    listed $179,900

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Pretty home with many recent updates including interior paint and carpet and wood-look laminate flooring installed in April 09. Large family room has fireplace with gas logs. Open floor plan. Split formal areas off entry. Huge master bath! Treed lot with gorgeous landscaping. Backyard has custom arbor covered with wisteria. Upstairs gameroom. Rear entry garage, three full baths, sprinkler on separate meter, security, gas heat, gas cook top.

12. 1995-08-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,311 · $693/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,311 · $693/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$8,311
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,540
• − Management: −$2,540
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$10,013
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,403
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mansfield ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828920
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $81,934
• Composite: 45.82/100
• National rank: #2558
• State rank: #125 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mansfield

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #5833

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mansfield, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 82,625
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 82,625
• Household income: $118,946
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2081.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.63%
• Current HPI: 259.1952
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.18%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+75.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $314,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-02-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-02-17 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2015-02-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-01-26 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2015-01-22 Listed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2010-01-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-10-23 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2009-09-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2009-04-27 Listed $179,900 NTREIS
• 1995-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,311 · -11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.