734 Willow Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14305

$184,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1915 2,600 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Equity Builder! Get Ready to be impressed!! Pride of ownership shines throughout this beautiful brick 1/2 Double, located just minutes away from the great Niagara Falls with all its attractions, the Seneca Niagara Casino and within walking distance of Whirpool State Park, Niagara Gorge Rim Trail and the Robert Moses Parkway Trail. Lower unit offers large covered front porch, hardwood floors, natural woodwork, stained glass windows, spacious rooms, 1 BR, great for owner occupied. Upper unit offers 2 BR, hardwood floors, spacious rooms, full walk-up attic with additional finished room and storage. Has separate utilities, washer/dryer hook ups, ample basement storage and off-street parking. Recent updates include fresh paint throughout 2022, Roof 2020, HWT 2016. This is a great investment opportunity, owner occupied or a great addition to any portfolio.

Key facts

• Separate utilities
• Finished attic
• Brick duplex

Tags

• BRICK DUPLEX
• STAINED-GLASS WINDOWS
• PRIVATE STAIRCASE
• FINISHED ATTIC
• SEPARATE UTILITIES
• BASEMENT STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $636 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $318/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,375/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 1095% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $134k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $182,126 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.75%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $92,500
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1312 Ontario Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,956 (+6%)	5mo	$138,000	$71	58
463 Elmwood Ave	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,992 (+8%)	13mo	$73,000	$37	56
1535 Pierce Ave	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,724 (-7%)	2mo	$35,000	$20	53
1361 North Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,711 (-8%)	2mo	$76,000	$44	52
1333 North Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (-7%)	2mo	$100,000	$58	51
1623 Linwood Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,994 (+8%)	3mo	$100,000	$50	49
1166 Haeberle Ave	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,932 (+4%)	13mo	$110,000	$57	48
1422 18th St	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,910 (+3%)	12mo	$25,000	$13	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $10,588
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $61,469
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14305

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,375 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,317/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $636

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,569

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $741	-5% $689	+0% $636	+5% $584	+10% $532
Rent	-10% $449	-5% $543	+0% $636	+5% $730	+10% $824
Rate	-1.0pp $730	-0.5pp $684	base $636	+0.5pp $589	+1.0pp $540

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,374
Total (2 units)			$2,375

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	4d	1	0.27mi
1312 Ontario Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1956	$1,200	$0.61	44d	1	0.62mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	4d	1	0.66mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	18d	1	0.98mi
3025 Macklem Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.5	1750	$2,200	$1.26	44d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   listed $184,900 Active
3. 2025-06-10
   status Pending
4. 2025-06-06
   historical
5. 2025-05-20
   listed $175,000 Active
6. 2022-06-09
   soldstatus $134,500 Closed Sale or Rented 863-char remark

   Show marketing remark (863 chars)

   Equity Builder! Get Ready to be impressed!! Pride of ownership shines throughout this beautiful brick 1/2 Double, located just minutes away from the great Niagara Falls with all its attractions, the Seneca Niagara Casino and within walking distance of Whirpool State Park, Niagara Gorge Rim Trail and the Robert Moses Parkway Trail. Lower unit offers large covered front porch, hardwood floors, natural woodwork, stained glass windows, spacious rooms, 1 BR, great for owner occupied. Upper unit offers 2 BR, hardwood floors, spacious rooms, full walk-up attic with additional finished room and storage. Has separate utilities, washer/dryer hook ups, ample basement storage and off-street parking. Recent updates include fresh paint throughout 2022, Roof 2020, HWT 2016. This is a great investment opportunity, owner occupied or a great addition to any portfolio.

7. 2022-05-10
   status Pending Sale 863-char remark

   Show marketing remark (863 chars)

   Equity Builder! Get Ready to be impressed!! Pride of ownership shines throughout this beautiful brick 1/2 Double, located just minutes away from the great Niagara Falls with all its attractions, the Seneca Niagara Casino and within walking distance of Whirpool State Park, Niagara Gorge Rim Trail and the Robert Moses Parkway Trail. Lower unit offers large covered front porch, hardwood floors, natural woodwork, stained glass windows, spacious rooms, 1 BR, great for owner occupied. Upper unit offers 2 BR, hardwood floors, spacious rooms, full walk-up attic with additional finished room and storage. Has separate utilities, washer/dryer hook ups, ample basement storage and off-street parking. Recent updates include fresh paint throughout 2022, Roof 2020, HWT 2016. This is a great investment opportunity, owner occupied or a great addition to any portfolio.

8. 2022-03-24
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 863-char remark

   Show marketing remark (863 chars)

   Equity Builder! Get Ready to be impressed!! Pride of ownership shines throughout this beautiful brick 1/2 Double, located just minutes away from the great Niagara Falls with all its attractions, the Seneca Niagara Casino and within walking distance of Whirpool State Park, Niagara Gorge Rim Trail and the Robert Moses Parkway Trail. Lower unit offers large covered front porch, hardwood floors, natural woodwork, stained glass windows, spacious rooms, 1 BR, great for owner occupied. Upper unit offers 2 BR, hardwood floors, spacious rooms, full walk-up attic with additional finished room and storage. Has separate utilities, washer/dryer hook ups, ample basement storage and off-street parking. Recent updates include fresh paint throughout 2022, Roof 2020, HWT 2016. This is a great investment opportunity, owner occupied or a great addition to any portfolio.

9. 2022-03-24
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 863-char remark

   Show marketing remark (863 chars)

   Equity Builder! Get Ready to be impressed!! Pride of ownership shines throughout this beautiful brick 1/2 Double, located just minutes away from the great Niagara Falls with all its attractions, the Seneca Niagara Casino and within walking distance of Whirpool State Park, Niagara Gorge Rim Trail and the Robert Moses Parkway Trail. Lower unit offers large covered front porch, hardwood floors, natural woodwork, stained glass windows, spacious rooms, 1 BR, great for owner occupied. Upper unit offers 2 BR, hardwood floors, spacious rooms, full walk-up attic with additional finished room and storage. Has separate utilities, washer/dryer hook ups, ample basement storage and off-street parking. Recent updates include fresh paint throughout 2022, Roof 2020, HWT 2016. This is a great investment opportunity, owner occupied or a great addition to any portfolio.

10. 2022-03-18
    listed $139,900 Active 863-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Equity Builder! Get Ready to be impressed!! Pride of ownership shines throughout this beautiful brick 1/2 Double, located just minutes away from the great Niagara Falls with all its attractions, the Seneca Niagara Casino and within walking distance of Whirpool State Park, Niagara Gorge Rim Trail and the Robert Moses Parkway Trail. Lower unit offers large covered front porch, hardwood floors, natural woodwork, stained glass windows, spacious rooms, 1 BR, great for owner occupied. Upper unit offers 2 BR, hardwood floors, spacious rooms, full walk-up attic with additional finished room and storage. Has separate utilities, washer/dryer hook ups, ample basement storage and off-street parking. Recent updates include fresh paint throughout 2022, Roof 2020, HWT 2016. This is a great investment opportunity, owner occupied or a great addition to any portfolio.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,317 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,721 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: +$404/yr (+$34/mo · 17.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$2,317
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,280
• − Management: −$2,280
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable income: $4,962
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,191
• After-tax cash flow: $6,447/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,696
• Household income: $51,004
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1095.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 24% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.08%
• Current HPI: 350.8741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+32.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $184,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-06-10 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-06-06 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-05-20 Listed $175,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-06-09 Sold (MLS) $134,500 WNYREIS
• 2022-05-10 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-03-24 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-03-24 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2022-03-18 Listed $139,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,317 · +15.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.