2125 Carrsville Hwy · Camptown, VA 23851

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 636 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1945 7,840 sqft lot Est $129k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable country living, 2 beds 1 bath, house is set on the back of lot, Current tenant in place on notice.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1945

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#478 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Isle Of Wight County Public School District (rural): math 62% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #28 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Carrsville Elementary (math 72% / reading 77%, grade A, #220 of 1,108 statewide, top 22%, 252 students, 48% FRL); Windsor High (math 62% / reading 82%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 527 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 257 units permitted in Isle of Wight County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Isle of Wight County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $145k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,776 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.25%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,108
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2125 Carrsville Hwy	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	716 (+13%)	1mo	$145,000	$203	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-14,391
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-945
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23851

• Home prices YoY: -10.2%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,308 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $823/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,126

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $185	+0% $144	+5% $103	+10% $62
Rent	-10% $40	-5% $92	+0% $144	+5% $195	+10% $247
Rate	-1.0pp $217	-0.5pp $181	base $144	+0.5pp $106	+1.0pp $68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-06
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-06
   listed $145,000 Active
4. 2021-02-16
   soldstatus $80,000
5. 2021-02-11
   status Under Contract
6. 2021-02-01
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2021-01-22
   listed $87,500 Active
8. 2019-11-05
   status Under Contract
9. 2019-09-23
   price $79,900
10. 2019-08-30
    listed $84,900 Active
11. 2019-08-29
    historical
12. 2019-06-20
    listed $92,900 Active
13. 2014-05-27
    price $24,400 Active
14. 2014-05-01
    price $24,900 Active
15. 2011-02-22
    historical
16. 2011-01-30
    historical
17. 2011-01-28
    listed $28,950
18. 2010-12-21
    listed $26,950
19. 2010-12-14
    historical
20. 2010-10-13
    listed $35,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $823 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,189 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$366/yr (+$30/mo · 44.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$823
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,255
• − Management: −$1,255
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$706
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$169
• After-tax cash flow: $1,894/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Isle Of Wight County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102010
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,756
• Composite: 58.67/100
• National rank: #982
• State rank: #28 of 131 in VA

Livability — Camptown

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #20714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Camptown, VA
• Population (ZIP): 13,481

Population outlook (Isle of Wight County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,005 people
• By 2030: 40,089 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 41,703 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 42,745 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 47,222 · +21.1%
• By 2100: 47,810 · +22.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 44% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Isle of Wight

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 39.6% · R 59.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -13.4pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+14.7 2008: R+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.51%
• Current HPI: 293.564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+306.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-04-06 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $145,000 REINMLS
• 2021-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-11 Pending — REINMLS
• 2021-02-01 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2021-01-22 Listed $87,500 REINMLS
• 2019-11-05 Pending — REINMLS
• 2019-09-23 Price Changed $79,900 REINMLS
• 2019-08-30 Listed $84,900 REINMLS
• 2019-08-29 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2019-06-20 Listed $92,900 REINMLS
• 2014-05-27 Price Changed $24,400 REINMLS
• 2014-05-01 Price Changed $24,900 REINMLS
• 2011-02-22 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2011-01-30 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2011-01-28 Listed $28,950 CVRMLS
• 2010-12-21 Listed $26,950 CVRMLS
• 2010-12-14 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-10-13 Listed $35,700 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $823 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.