12531 Orangewood Ct · Tavares, FL 32778

$204,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,027 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1982 1,368 sqft lot Est $293k · 30% under $250/mo HOA · 13% of rent ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. WELCOME to carefree living in the over-55 community of Summit Chase Villas in south Tavares! Small pets ARE allowed (max 2). Easy drive to charming Mount Dora. Ideal location for shopping, medical facilities, golfing and simply enjoying small-town living in sunny Central Florida. No yard-work required here! Features incl a great floor plan with inside utility, plenty of closets & pantry, all tile flooring, updated kitchen with butcher-block counter-tops, updated plumbing pipes, and a wonderful SAFE-STEP walk-in tub with shower enhancement option. Enjoy sitting out front under roof greeting your neighbors, or the privacy of the back patio. Ownership here includes your reserved carport and adjacent 4x8 storage closet, just outside your front door & yard. The community offers a clubhouse/recreation room, community pool & shuffleboard. Your monthly association fee includes lawn service, exterior building maintenance, trash dumpsters, termite bond, and roof reserves. New Publix shopping center is only one block away and hospital only 2 miles! COME VISIT - PLEASANT SURROUNDINGS!

Key facts

• Updated electrical
• New washer and dryer
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW WASHER AND DRYER
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• UPDATED PLUMBING
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned PUD
• Financial info: Total annual association fees $3,000; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $250; Association amenities: Clubhouse, Pool, Shuffleboard Court; Association approval required; Buyer approval required; Community mailbox; Street lights; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered reserved parking; 1-car carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Residential villa; One story; Southwest facing; Completed condition; Entry on slab foundation
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Storage structure
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Shutters; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-895/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tavares Elementary School (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 875 students, 61% FRL); Tavares Middle School (math 43% / reading 40%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 1,070 students, 58% FRL); Tavares High School (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,507 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $107k; list at $205k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,202 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $292,695
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
610 Windridge Pl	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,105 (+8%)	9mo	$267,000	$242	45
565 Windridge Pl	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (-3%)	18mo	$285,000	$285	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-35,860
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-28,512
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 507
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,872 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,717/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,966

Max offer price $191,818

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $41	-5% $-17	+0% $-75	+5% $-133	+10% $-191
Rent	-10% $-223	-5% $-149	+0% $-75	+5% $-1	+10% $73
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-22	base $-75	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30024 Tavares Ridge Blvd Unit 62 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,000	$1.75	25d	1	0.14mi
741 W Rosewood Ln Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,195	$1.06	5d	1	0.64mi
2106 Shantiniketan Blvd Unit B6 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	6d	1	0.71mi
459 E Rosewood Ln #157 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,400	$1.13	23d	1	0.78mi
500 E Rosewood Ln Unit 154 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,650	$1.45	25d	1	0.79mi
1585 Dead River Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,990	$1.89	25d	1	0.80mi
420 S Lake Ave Lot 1 Tavares, FL	1.0	1.0	1016	$1,200	$1.18	0d	1	0.99mi
123 N Lake Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,595	$1.42	25d	1	1.24mi
615 Juniper Way Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,900	$1.57	19d	1	1.40mi
4950 Marsh Harbor Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,900	$1.55	0d	1	1.42mi
4721 Treasure Cay Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,900	$1.38	0d	1	1.43mi
4567 Barbuda Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,150	$1.58	25d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: trashpool

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $204,999 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $204,999 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $204,999 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,999 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,999 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,999 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,999 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,999 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,999 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,999 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,999 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,999 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,999 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,999 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $209,999 Active
16. 2020-05-28
    soldstatus $107,000 Sold 1158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1158 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. WELCOME to carefree living in the over-55 community of Summit Chase Villas in south Tavares! Small pets ARE allowed (max 2). Easy drive to charming Mount Dora. Ideal location for shopping, medical facilities, golfing and simply enjoying small-town living in sunny Central Florida. No yard-work required here! Features incl a great floor plan with inside utility, plenty of closets & pantry, all tile flooring, updated kitchen with butcher-block counter-tops, updated plumbing pipes, and a wonderful SAFE-STEP walk-in tub with shower enhancement option. Enjoy sitting out front under roof greeting your neighbors, or the privacy of the back patio. Ownership here includes your reserved carport and adjacent 4x8 storage closet, just outside your front door & yard. The community offers a clubhouse/recreation room, community pool & shuffleboard. Your monthly association fee includes lawn service, exterior building maintenance, trash dumpsters, termite bond, and roof reserves. New Publix shopping center is only one block away and hospital only 2 miles! COME VISIT - PLEASANT SURROUNDINGS!

17. 2020-05-28
    soldstatus $107,000

    Show marketing remark (1158 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. WELCOME to carefree living in the over-55 community of Summit Chase Villas in south Tavares! Small pets ARE allowed (max 2). Easy drive to charming Mount Dora. Ideal location for shopping, medical facilities, golfing and simply enjoying small-town living in sunny Central Florida. No yard-work required here! Features incl a great floor plan with inside utility, plenty of closets & pantry, all tile flooring, updated kitchen with butcher-block counter-tops, updated plumbing pipes, and a wonderful SAFE-STEP walk-in tub with shower enhancement option. Enjoy sitting out front under roof greeting your neighbors, or the privacy of the back patio. Ownership here includes your reserved carport and adjacent 4x8 storage closet, just outside your front door & yard. The community offers a clubhouse/recreation room, community pool & shuffleboard. Your monthly association fee includes lawn service, exterior building maintenance, trash dumpsters, termite bond, and roof reserves. New Publix shopping center is only one block away and hospital only 2 miles! COME VISIT - PLEASANT SURROUNDINGS!

18. 2020-05-10
    status Pending 1158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1158 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. WELCOME to carefree living in the over-55 community of Summit Chase Villas in south Tavares! Small pets ARE allowed (max 2). Easy drive to charming Mount Dora. Ideal location for shopping, medical facilities, golfing and simply enjoying small-town living in sunny Central Florida. No yard-work required here! Features incl a great floor plan with inside utility, plenty of closets & pantry, all tile flooring, updated kitchen with butcher-block counter-tops, updated plumbing pipes, and a wonderful SAFE-STEP walk-in tub with shower enhancement option. Enjoy sitting out front under roof greeting your neighbors, or the privacy of the back patio. Ownership here includes your reserved carport and adjacent 4x8 storage closet, just outside your front door & yard. The community offers a clubhouse/recreation room, community pool & shuffleboard. Your monthly association fee includes lawn service, exterior building maintenance, trash dumpsters, termite bond, and roof reserves. New Publix shopping center is only one block away and hospital only 2 miles! COME VISIT - PLEASANT SURROUNDINGS!

19. 2020-05-08
    listed $107,000 Active 1158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1158 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. WELCOME to carefree living in the over-55 community of Summit Chase Villas in south Tavares! Small pets ARE allowed (max 2). Easy drive to charming Mount Dora. Ideal location for shopping, medical facilities, golfing and simply enjoying small-town living in sunny Central Florida. No yard-work required here! Features incl a great floor plan with inside utility, plenty of closets & pantry, all tile flooring, updated kitchen with butcher-block counter-tops, updated plumbing pipes, and a wonderful SAFE-STEP walk-in tub with shower enhancement option. Enjoy sitting out front under roof greeting your neighbors, or the privacy of the back patio. Ownership here includes your reserved carport and adjacent 4x8 storage closet, just outside your front door & yard. The community offers a clubhouse/recreation room, community pool & shuffleboard. Your monthly association fee includes lawn service, exterior building maintenance, trash dumpsters, termite bond, and roof reserves. New Publix shopping center is only one block away and hospital only 2 miles! COME VISIT - PLEASANT SURROUNDINGS!

20. 2013-01-18
    soldstatus $35,000 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Great Location in a 55+ community. .. Nice 2/2 in a maintenance free community. Covered parking with extra storage space.

21. 2012-10-01
    listed $42,500 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Great Location in a 55+ community. .. Nice 2/2 in a maintenance free community. Covered parking with extra storage space.

22. 2012-03-19
    historical
23. 2011-10-27
    listed $40,000
24. 2011-05-13
    historical
25. 2010-06-01
    listed $65,000
26. 1998-12-03
    soldstatus $45,000
27. 1987-04-01
    soldstatus $38,500
28. 1984-03-01
    soldstatus $291,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,717 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,717 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$1,717
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$4,318
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,036
• After-tax cash flow: $141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-28.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $209,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-28 Sold (MLS) $107,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-08 Listed $107,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-18 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-01 Listed $42,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-27 Listed $40,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-01 Listed $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1987-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,500 Public Records
• 1984-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $291,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,717 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.