4 Squaw Rd · Springs, NY 11937

$2,795,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 61 Days on market

Built 2024 0.40 ac lot $776/sqft · 14% above area Est $2450k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just Completed and Fully Furnished! CO To Be Issued in January So You Get Setup and Ready For The Season!! Turn-Key New Construction Home by Renowned Local Builder on Newly Expanded Lot w/Enhanced With Luxurious Designer Upgraded Finishes And Heated 20x40 Saltwater Pool In This Prime Water-Access Location Steps To Three Mile Harbor, Maidstone Harbor Marina, Sunset Harbor Waterfront Restaurant, and more. Three Mile Harbor Along With The Surrounding Waters of Gardiners and Peconic Bays Provide Miles Of the Most Attractive Cruising, Fishing, and Sailing Territory Around. Sunset Harbor- Located at the Marina - Provides a Great Spot for Dinner or to Just Meet Up With Friends For a Drink After A Long Day on the Water. The Home Is Ultra Energy-Efficient, Includes A Phenomenal Builder's Warranty, and Features a State-of-the-Art Whole House Fresh Air Ventilation System. Don't Miss The Opportunity to Own Luxury New Construction. Details, floor plans, and videos on Aurora Property Group website.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Waterfront access
• Great room

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• HEATED SALTWATER POOL
• WATERFRONT ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Private pool; Not waterfront; Frame construction

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Formal dining room; Master bedroom on main level; Full unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $2.79M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.29M (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.29M (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 11.1% in Springs — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Springs School (math 55% / reading 60%, grade C+, #839 of 2,108 statewide, top 40%, 689 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $22,889/mo this rent would consume 211% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $19k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $84k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.63M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $425k; list at $2.79M implies a 558% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,288,926 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.77%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,450,382
• List price: $2,795,000
• Delta: 14.06%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
418 Three Mile Harbor Road Rd	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,600 (0%)	12mo	$2,350,000	$653	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-259,632
• Equity at exit: $416,744

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $414,482
• Equity at exit: $241,661

Cash invested: $782,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $22,889 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,657
• Tax from tax record: −$1,108 /mo · $13,292/yr
• Insurance: −$1,165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,807
• Net cashflow: $1,153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $21,430

Max offer price $2,795,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,735	-5% $1,944	+0% $1,153	+5% $362	+10% $-429
Rent	-10% $-655	-5% $249	+0% $1,153	+5% $2,057	+10% $2,961
Rate	-1.0pp $2,561	-0.5pp $1,864	base $1,153	+0.5pp $429	+1.0pp $-308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $698,750
• Closing costs: $83,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,795,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,795,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,795,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,795,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,795,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,795,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,795,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,795,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,795,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,795,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,795,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,795,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,795,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,795,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,795,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    listed $2,795,000 Active 933-char remark
17. 2024-05-21
    soldstatus $425,000
18. 2024-05-21
    soldstatus $2,075,000
19. 2024-04-11
    soldstatus $2,075,000 Closed 1001-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    Just Completed and Fully Furnished! CO To Be Issued in January So You Get Setup and Ready For The Season!! Turn-Key New Construction Home by Renowned Local Builder on Newly Expanded Lot w/Enhanced With Luxurious Designer Upgraded Finishes And Heated 20x40 Saltwater Pool In This Prime Water-Access Location Steps To Three Mile Harbor, Maidstone Harbor Marina, Sunset Harbor Waterfront Restaurant, and more. Three Mile Harbor Along With The Surrounding Waters of Gardiners and Peconic Bays Provide Miles Of the Most Attractive Cruising, Fishing, and Sailing Territory Around. Sunset Harbor- Located at the Marina - Provides a Great Spot for Dinner or to Just Meet Up With Friends For a Drink After A Long Day on the Water. The Home Is Ultra Energy-Efficient, Includes A Phenomenal Builder's Warranty, and Features a State-of-the-Art Whole House Fresh Air Ventilation System. Don't Miss The Opportunity to Own Luxury New Construction. Details, floor plans, and videos on Aurora Property Group website.

20. 2024-02-03
    status Pending 1001-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    Just Completed and Fully Furnished! CO To Be Issued in January So You Get Setup and Ready For The Season!! Turn-Key New Construction Home by Renowned Local Builder on Newly Expanded Lot w/Enhanced With Luxurious Designer Upgraded Finishes And Heated 20x40 Saltwater Pool In This Prime Water-Access Location Steps To Three Mile Harbor, Maidstone Harbor Marina, Sunset Harbor Waterfront Restaurant, and more. Three Mile Harbor Along With The Surrounding Waters of Gardiners and Peconic Bays Provide Miles Of the Most Attractive Cruising, Fishing, and Sailing Territory Around. Sunset Harbor- Located at the Marina - Provides a Great Spot for Dinner or to Just Meet Up With Friends For a Drink After A Long Day on the Water. The Home Is Ultra Energy-Efficient, Includes A Phenomenal Builder's Warranty, and Features a State-of-the-Art Whole House Fresh Air Ventilation System. Don't Miss The Opportunity to Own Luxury New Construction. Details, floor plans, and videos on Aurora Property Group website.

21. 2023-10-25
    listed $2,195,000 Active 1001-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    Just Completed and Fully Furnished! CO To Be Issued in January So You Get Setup and Ready For The Season!! Turn-Key New Construction Home by Renowned Local Builder on Newly Expanded Lot w/Enhanced With Luxurious Designer Upgraded Finishes And Heated 20x40 Saltwater Pool In This Prime Water-Access Location Steps To Three Mile Harbor, Maidstone Harbor Marina, Sunset Harbor Waterfront Restaurant, and more. Three Mile Harbor Along With The Surrounding Waters of Gardiners and Peconic Bays Provide Miles Of the Most Attractive Cruising, Fishing, and Sailing Territory Around. Sunset Harbor- Located at the Marina - Provides a Great Spot for Dinner or to Just Meet Up With Friends For a Drink After A Long Day on the Water. The Home Is Ultra Energy-Efficient, Includes A Phenomenal Builder's Warranty, and Features a State-of-the-Art Whole House Fresh Air Ventilation System. Don't Miss The Opportunity to Own Luxury New Construction. Details, floor plans, and videos on Aurora Property Group website.

22. 2021-03-29
    soldstatus $370,000
23. 2006-04-18
    soldstatus $315,000
24. 2006-04-18
    soldstatus $315,000
25. 2005-12-22
    soldstatus $137,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,292 · $1,108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $30,264 · $2,522/mo
• Expected delta: +$16,972/yr (+$1,414/mo · 127.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $274,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$156,563
• − Property taxes: −$13,292
• − Insurance: −$13,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$21,974
• − Management: −$21,974
• − Depreciation: −$81,309
• Taxable loss: −$34,416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,260
• After-tax cash flow: $22,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springs Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $75,413
• Composite: 51.42/100
• National rank: #1728
• State rank: #239 of 590 in NY

Livability — Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #15666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springs, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1932.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $2,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $2,075,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records
• 2024-04-11 Sold (MLS) $2,075,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-25 Listed $2,195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $370,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $137,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+23.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,292 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.