20200 NE 27th Ct Unit 7j · Aventura, FL 33180

$194,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 650 sqft · Condo · 75 Days on market

Built 1964 $650/mo HOA · 21% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Parking
• Pool
• Built 1964

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets are not allowed
• Financial info: Not a land lease property
• HOA & community: Association with monthly fee of $650; HOA fee covers water, sewer and trash; Association amenities: Other

Exterior

• Parking: Strip/slab parking (1 space)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 100 amp electric service; Sewer and water connected
• Home design: Co-ownership property; One living level; Resale condition; Faces south
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Flat roof; Block foundation; Built as a 2-story building (unit on one level)
• Exterior features: Landscaped grounds; Private maintained road; No waterfront; Other exterior structures; In-ground private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Tile; Other
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Space heater; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Electric range; Refrigerator; Common-area laundry; Tile and other flooring; Other window features; Smoke detectors; Accessible approach with ramp
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in a common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $194k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.6% in Aventura — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#127 in FL, #1,834 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: health & safety A+, amenities A, commute A; Watch: crime D+, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Aventura Waterways K-8 Center (math 56% / reading 65%, grade B-, #664 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 2,168 students, 32% FRL); Highland Oaks Middle School (math 28% / reading 51%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 774 students, 50% FRL); Dr. Michael M. Krop Senior High (math 21% / reading 46%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 2,235 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 64% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 992 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,360 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.17%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-32,021
• Equity at exit: $28,926

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-50,443
• Equity at exit: $16,774

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33180

• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 992
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,133 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,109/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$650
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$658
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,975

Max offer price $194,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $234	-5% $179	+0% $124	+5% $70	+10% $15
Rent	-10% $-123	-5% $1	+0% $124	+5% $248	+10% $372
Rate	-1.0pp $222	-0.5pp $174	base $124	+0.5pp $74	+1.0pp $23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $650 · $7,800/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $194,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $194,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $194,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $194,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-05-15
    price $194,000
13. 2026-04-02
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,109 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,109 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$2,109
• − Insurance: −$6,088
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,008
• − Management: −$3,008
• − HOA: −$7,800
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable loss: −$929
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$223
• After-tax cash flow: $1,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Aventura

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #1834

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aventura, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 34,147
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,147
• Household income: $91,055
• Rent vs Own: 38.7% rent · 61.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1838.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 28% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 7% Dominican 1% Salvadoran 6%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 5% Romanian 5% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 52% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -343.81%
• Current HPI: 234.7715
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.51%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $194,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $199,000 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,109 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.