7794 Bergamot Cir · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$312,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,678 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $284k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

For a home that's designed to complement any lifestyle, try the Leyland! The foyer leads back into an inviting layout, showcasing an open kitchen that overlooks a spacious great room and a dining area. With this floor plan, entertaining is just as easy as everyday living! The primary suite is upstairs, boasting a walk-in closet and a private bath with a walk-in shower. Two secondary bedrooms and a shared bath are nearby, and the laundry room is also conveniently located on this level.

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Walk-in closet
• Private bath

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 7794 Bergamot Cir, Magnolia, TX 77354; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $312,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Leyland plan); Spec/new construction inventory

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (1,678 finished area)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $313k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-526 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (33.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedric C Smith (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 724 students, 55% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $207,086 (33.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.21%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,582
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7823 Bergamot Cir	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,678 (0%)	1mo	$284,900	$170	97
7745 Bergamot Cir	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,678 (0%)	1mo	$284,900	$170	96
7749 Bergamot Cir	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (+6%)	0mo	$289,900	$162	82
209 Valiant Ridge Trl	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,678 (0%)	2mo	$284,900	$170	77
7819 Bergamot Cir	0.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,897 (+13%)	1mo	$299,900	$158	71
175 Courageous Side Way	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,666 (-1%)	1mo	$279,900	$168	67
20 Courageous Side Way	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,708 (+2%)	1mo	$288,990	$169	65
8026 Peppercorn St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,752 (+4%)	2mo	$265,000	$151	63
7950 Alset Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (+6%)	2mo	$299,900	$168	62
8031 Heroes Hall Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (+6%)	0mo	$294,900	$165	59
139 S Vesper Bend Cir	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,530 (-9%)	0mo	$365,000	$239	50
8410 Sweet Cherry Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-11%)	1mo	$285,000	$190	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $131,479
• Equity at exit: $281,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.61×
• Total profit: $403,741
• Equity at exit: $607,896

Cash invested: $87,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,071 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,641
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$391 /mo · $4,694/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-526

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,737

Max offer price $236,729

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-310	-5% $-418	+0% $-526	+5% $-635	+10% $-743
Rent	-10% $-690	-5% $-608	+0% $-526	+5% $-445	+10% $-363
Rate	-1.0pp $-369	-0.5pp $-447	base $-526	+0.5pp $-607	+1.0pp $-690

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,225
• Closing costs: $9,387
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7910 Alset Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1897	$2,320	$1.22	45d	1	0.40mi
139 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,846	$1.22	14d	1	0.53mi
131 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,280	$1.24	0d	1	0.55mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,000	$1.42	45d	1	0.77mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,975	$1.40	26d	1	0.77mi
3 Peachridge Pl Unit 1 Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	1657	$1,950	$1.18	22d	1	1.23mi
9396 Woodlands Pkwy Unit EASR Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,649	$1.31	26d	1	1.31mi
9396 Woodlands Pkwy Unit EASR Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,649	$1.31	13d	1	1.31mi
7698 Flintridge Dr Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1191	$1,535	$1.29	45d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $312,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $312,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $312,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $312,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $312,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $312,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $312,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $312,900 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,527
• − Property taxes: −$4,694
• − Insurance: −$1,564
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,988
• − Management: −$1,988
• − Depreciation: −$9,103
• Taxable loss: −$12,014
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,883
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,434/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B