15 E Shore Dr · Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11702

$1,250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1937 5,600 sqft lot $583/sqft · 22% below area Est $1921k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous & Spacious Bay Front Colonial- You'll Never Want To Leave Home. 4 Bedrooms, 2.5 Baths. 9 Ft. Ceilings, Hardwood Floors. Pristine Eat-In-Kitchen & Grand Living Room W/ Sparkling Views of the Bay. New AC & Boiler, Completely Rebuilt Boat lift, Mooring Poles and 50ft Pier. 12,000 lb lift Hold up to 26 Ft. Boat, 9.6ft Beam. No PSEG Electricity Bills! Solar Panels have 25-Year Lease w/Option To Buy After 6 Years. First Year Payment Is $283/Month and Goes Up 2.99% Per Year That's An Average Savings of Approx $600/Month (Cooler Months) and Approx $900/Month (Warmer Months) (Total Taxes are: $24,714.50; this amount includes Village Taxes, which are: $3,151.50)

Key facts

• Waterfront living
• Private retreat
• Bayfront residence

Tags

• WATERFRONT LIVING
• BAYFRONT RESIDENCE
• SWEEPING WATER VIEWS
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• QUARTZ WATERFALL CENTER ISLAND

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Phone connected; Trash collection (public); Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Waterfront property; Full basement; Attic storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Two levels (home spans two levels)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Double vanity(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Chef's kitchen; Crown molding; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Entertainment cabinets; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Quartz/Quartzite counters; Recessed lighting; Smart thermostat; Storage; Washer/dryer hookup; ENERGY STAR qualified windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer/dryer hookup; Gas water heater

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $1,250,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$1,920,912) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.25M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($83k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($18k rent vs $1.25M).
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 6.4% in Remsenburg-Speonk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 755 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Remsenburg-Speonk Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 122 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 10% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $38k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $350k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.07M; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,250,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.82%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,920,912
• List price: $1,250,000
• Delta: -34.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
56 Nidzyn Ave	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,033 (-5%)	7mo	$1,615,000	$794	68
61 Halsey Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0	2,160 (+1%)	16mo	$1,149,000	$532	67
40 Nidzyn Ave	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,195 (+2%)	5mo	$1,195,000	$544	63
16 Heather Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,925 (-10%)	8mo	$825,000	$429	56
6 Bridle Path	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,316 (+8%)	23mo	$2,550,000	$1,101	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $239,509
• Equity at exit: $186,379

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $776,811
• Equity at exit: $108,077

Cash invested: $350,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11702

• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,430 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,555
• Tax from tax record: −$538 /mo · $6,454/yr
• Insurance: −$521
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,870
• Net cashflow: $6,946

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,638

Max offer price $1,250,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7,654	-5% $7,300	+0% $6,946	+5% $6,593	+10% $6,239
Rent	-10% $5,490	-5% $6,218	+0% $6,946	+5% $7,674	+10% $8,402
Rate	-1.0pp $7,576	-0.5pp $7,264	base $6,946	+0.5pp $6,622	+1.0pp $6,293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $312,500
• Closing costs: $37,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35 Halsey Rd Remsenburg, NY	3.0	2.0	2345	$10,000	$4.26	0d	1	0.21mi
70 Jagger Ln Westhampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1850	$20,000	$10.81	0d	1	0.98mi
134A Montauk Hwy Westhampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2478	$15,000	$6.05	0d	1	1.18mi
70 Tanners Neck Ln Westhampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2100	$20,000	$9.52	45d	1	1.37mi
552 Dune Rd Westhampton Beach, NY	5.0	3.5	2296	$55,000	$23.95	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-22
   listed $1,250,000 Active
2. 2025-11-18
   soldstatus $1,075,000 Closed 685-char remark

   Show marketing remark (685 chars)

   Gorgeous & Spacious Bay Front Colonial- You'll Never Want To Leave Home. 4 Bedrooms, 2.5 Baths. 9 Ft. Ceilings, Hardwood Floors. Pristine Eat-In-Kitchen & Grand Living Room W/ Sparkling Views of the Bay. New AC & Boiler, Completely Rebuilt Boat lift, Mooring Poles and 50ft Pier. 12,000 lb lift Hold up to 26 Ft. Boat, 9.6ft Beam. No PSEG Electricity Bills! Solar Panels have 25-Year Lease w/Option To Buy After 6 Years. First Year Payment Is $283/Month and Goes Up 2.99% Per Year That's An Average Savings of Approx $600/Month (Cooler Months) and Approx $900/Month (Warmer Months) (Total Taxes are: $24,714.50; this amount includes Village Taxes, which are: $3,151.50)

3. 2025-09-18
   status Pending 685-char remark

   Show marketing remark (685 chars)

   Gorgeous & Spacious Bay Front Colonial- You'll Never Want To Leave Home. 4 Bedrooms, 2.5 Baths. 9 Ft. Ceilings, Hardwood Floors. Pristine Eat-In-Kitchen & Grand Living Room W/ Sparkling Views of the Bay. New AC & Boiler, Completely Rebuilt Boat lift, Mooring Poles and 50ft Pier. 12,000 lb lift Hold up to 26 Ft. Boat, 9.6ft Beam. No PSEG Electricity Bills! Solar Panels have 25-Year Lease w/Option To Buy After 6 Years. First Year Payment Is $283/Month and Goes Up 2.99% Per Year That's An Average Savings of Approx $600/Month (Cooler Months) and Approx $900/Month (Warmer Months) (Total Taxes are: $24,714.50; this amount includes Village Taxes, which are: $3,151.50)

4. 2025-08-26
   listed $1,099,000 Active 685-char remark

   Show marketing remark (685 chars)

   Gorgeous & Spacious Bay Front Colonial- You'll Never Want To Leave Home. 4 Bedrooms, 2.5 Baths. 9 Ft. Ceilings, Hardwood Floors. Pristine Eat-In-Kitchen & Grand Living Room W/ Sparkling Views of the Bay. New AC & Boiler, Completely Rebuilt Boat lift, Mooring Poles and 50ft Pier. 12,000 lb lift Hold up to 26 Ft. Boat, 9.6ft Beam. No PSEG Electricity Bills! Solar Panels have 25-Year Lease w/Option To Buy After 6 Years. First Year Payment Is $283/Month and Goes Up 2.99% Per Year That's An Average Savings of Approx $600/Month (Cooler Months) and Approx $900/Month (Warmer Months) (Total Taxes are: $24,714.50; this amount includes Village Taxes, which are: $3,151.50)

5. 2025-08-25
   historical $1,099,000 685-char remark

   Show marketing remark (685 chars)

   Gorgeous & Spacious Bay Front Colonial- You'll Never Want To Leave Home. 4 Bedrooms, 2.5 Baths. 9 Ft. Ceilings, Hardwood Floors. Pristine Eat-In-Kitchen & Grand Living Room W/ Sparkling Views of the Bay. New AC & Boiler, Completely Rebuilt Boat lift, Mooring Poles and 50ft Pier. 12,000 lb lift Hold up to 26 Ft. Boat, 9.6ft Beam. No PSEG Electricity Bills! Solar Panels have 25-Year Lease w/Option To Buy After 6 Years. First Year Payment Is $283/Month and Goes Up 2.99% Per Year That's An Average Savings of Approx $600/Month (Cooler Months) and Approx $900/Month (Warmer Months) (Total Taxes are: $24,714.50; this amount includes Village Taxes, which are: $3,151.50)

6. 2015-06-04
   historical
7. 2014-06-13
   listed $649,990
8. 2012-06-01
   soldstatus $685,000
9. 2006-03-20
   soldstatus $1,100,000
10. 2000-01-19
    soldstatus $375,000
11. 1998-11-04
    soldstatus $282,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,454 · $538/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,789 · $1,149/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,336/yr (+$611/mo · 113.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $221,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$70,019
• − Property taxes: −$6,454
• − Insurance: −$6,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$17,693
• − Management: −$17,693
• − Depreciation: −$36,364
• Taxable income: $66,693
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16,006
• After-tax cash flow: $67,350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624420
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $79,972
• Composite: 47.7/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #389 of 755 in NY

Livability — Remsenburg-Speonk

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Remsenburg-Speonk, NY
• City population: 1,346
• Population (ZIP): 14,002

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -715.58%
• Current HPI: 275.5881
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+343.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $1,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Sold (MLS) $1,075,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-26 Listed $1,099,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-25 Coming Soon $1,099,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-04 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-13 Listed $649,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $685,000 Public Records
• 2006-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $1,100,000 Public Records
• 2000-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records
• 1998-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $282,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $6,454 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.